Harvard University '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.32 (fleet 3.21) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–16 (30%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 1–8 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 6–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 7–16 against 8.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-04 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.40 | 0.63 | 1–8 | 3.3 | −1.77 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.59 | 2.83 | 6–8 | 5.4 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 46% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.5 | 3.27 |
| Women's Showcase Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.9 | 3.36 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.1 | 3.41 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.7 | 3.39 |
| Norman Reid Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.6 | 2.96 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.6 | 3.26 |
| Jen Harris Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.4 | 3.06 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.4 | 2.72 |
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 11.0 | 1.53 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.9 | 4.03 |
| Sperry Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 13.2 | 2.44 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.8 | 2.42 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.7 | 4.39 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.5 | 2.94 |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.1 | 3.27 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 15.0 | 1.28 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.7 | 2.06 |
| Lark Invite- Central Series One | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.7 | 2.98 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 4.10 |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.0 | 3.15 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.4 | 3.64 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 13.0 | 1.44 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.1 | 2.76 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.4 | 3.35 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.8 | 3.38 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.8 | 3.03 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.5 | 3.32 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.2 | 2.55 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.6 | 2.34 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 10.3 | 2.48 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.5 | 2.67 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.7 | 2.07 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Lucy Wilmot |  Miramonte High School |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
