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Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 53 32 85
2 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 65 65 130
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 64 67 131
4 Boston University Boston University Terriers 61 81 142
5 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 97 61 158
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 83 83 166
7 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 62 111 173
8 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 82 115 197
9 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 108 102 210
10 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 132 102 234
11 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 103 132 235
12 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 133 108 241
13 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 137 125 262
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 2 7 12 1 3 4 7 3 1 1 2 7 53 Annie Hughes '19 [1-13]
Kaila Pfrang '21 [1-10]
Noa Yoder '19 [11-13]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 4 3 6 3 6 2 2 10 7 8 3 6 1 61 Grace Mooradian '21
Hannah Davis '19
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 8 1 2 3 1 6 4 6 5 11 10 3 62 Claire Havig '21
Alissa Chen '22
Brown University Brown University Bears 8 6 3 11 2 4 3 9 1 6 2 1 8 64 Hannah Steadman '20 [1-7]
Ragna Agerup '20 [8-13]
Emily Ito '19 [1-7]
Abigayle Konys '19 [8-13]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 1 8 1 8 5 10 2 5 3 8 9 4 65 Emma White '19
Paige Clarke '20
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 7 7 5 9 4 6 1 13 2 2 9 12 5 82 Madelynn Widmeier '19
Christina Nothacker '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 5 5 4 7 7 9 11 1 4 11 7 3 9 83 Talia Toland '22
Ann Sheridan '22
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 9 9 10 5 5 10 5 3 11 7 5 8 10 97 Taylor Gavula '19 [1-6]
Emma Kaneti '22 [7-13]
Emily Wang '21 [1-6]
Emma Jakobson '21 [7-13]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 12 10 2 4 11 8 7 8 9 10 4 7 11 103 Kelsey Shakin '19
Kristi Dolan '20
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 6 11 12 10 9 11 8 11 8 4 BKD 4 6 108 Carolyn Corbet '21
Kelley Phippen '22
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 11 4 13 6 12 7 9 12 13 13 DNF 5 13 132 Lolly Vasilion '22
Emma Janson '19
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 13 13 11 13 13 12 13 5 10 9 6 13 2 133 Emery Wallace '21
Kathryn Clulo '21
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 10 12 9 8 10 13 12 6 12 12 10 11 12 137 Rebecca Read '21 [1-7]
Meghan Haviland '22 [8-13]
Sage Walters '21 [1-7]
Sophie Jackson '20 [8-13]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1 1 1 5 3 1 2 1 1 4 8 3 1 32 Emily Haig '21 [1-13]
Sarah Caso '19 [1-4, 8]
Brooke Mcgoldrick '20 [5-7, 9-13]
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 4 9 2 4 2 7 10 3 2 2 4 6 6 61 Lucy Wilmot '20
Alejandra Resendiz '19
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 2 8 3 11 1 6 DSQ 6 3 1 6 2 2 65 Kathryn Hall '21
Eloise Burn '21
Brown University Brown University Bears 10 4 12 1 4 2 1 13 5 3 1 1 10 67 Sophie Hibben '19 [1-13]
Megha Malpani '19 [1-12]
Emma Montgomery '22 [13]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 6 3 9 6 5 8 6 12 9 5 3 4 5 81 Allison Cahn '20 [1-6, 8-13]
Skye Shepherd '20 [7]
Katherine Bertolini '21 [1-6, 8-13]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 7 7 7 3 6 4 9 4 6 7 7 5 11 83 Charlotte Lenz '20
Marley Hillman '21
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 11 2 8 13 7 3 7 2 7 11 12 12 7 102 Victoria Pajak '21
Coleen Ross '20
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 12 11 5 9 8 12 3 7 8 6 2 11 8 102 Emma Marston '22
Amy Sloat '20
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 8 13 4 2 12 5 12 8 10 9 9 13 3 108 Anisha Arcot '23
Helena Ware '23
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 5 10 6 7 10 11 5 11 11 12 11 8 4 111 Ellie Maus '22 [1-13]
Isabelle Austin-Green '19 [1-6, 11-13]
Sophia Schaefer '22 [7-10]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 9 5 13 10 9 10 8 5 4 8 13 9 12 115 Darden Purrington '20 [1-10]
Lily Maranto '22 [11-13]
Halee Lewis '21 [1-10]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 13 6 10 8 11 9 4 9 12 10 10 10 13 125 Megan Gimple '22
Taylor Borges '22
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 12 11 12 13 13 11 10 13 13 5 7 9 132 Madeline Pope '21
Ariana Smaldone '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers1133445566778
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears3344556677889
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears44556677889910
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears111112121313141411334
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green5566778899101011
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson667788991010111112
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers77889910101111121213
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies8899101011111212131314
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1212131314141133445
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks99101011111212131314141
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos10101111121213131414113
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts13131414113344556
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs141411334455667

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers1133445566778
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears3344556677889
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears44556677889910
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears111112121313141411334
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green5566778899101011
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson667788991010111112
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers77889910101111121213
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies8899101011111212131314
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams1212131314141133445
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks99101011111212131314141
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos10101111121213131414113
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts13131414113344556
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs141411334455667
School / Team SkipperCrew
Boston University Boston University Grace Mooradian '21 Hannah Davis '19
Terriers Allison Cahn '20 [1-6, 8-13]
Skye Shepherd '20 [7]		 Katherine Bertolini '21 [1-6, 8-13]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Claire Havig '21 Alissa Chen '22
Polar Bears Ellie Maus '22 [1-13] Isabelle Austin-Green '19 [1-6, 11-13]
Sophia Schaefer '22 [7-10]
Brown University Brown University Hannah Steadman '20 [1-7]
Ragna Agerup '20 [8-13]		 Emily Ito '19 [1-7]
Abigayle Konys '19 [8-13]
Bears Sophie Hibben '19 [1-13] Megha Malpani '19 [1-12]
Emma Montgomery '22 [13]
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Emma White '19 Paige Clarke '20
Big Green Kathryn Hall '21 Eloise Burn '21
Harvard University Harvard University Taylor Gavula '19 [1-6]
Emma Kaneti '22 [7-13]		 Emily Wang '21 [1-6]
Emma Jakobson '21 [7-13]
Crimson Lucy Wilmot '20 Alejandra Resendiz '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Annie Hughes '19 [1-13] Kaila Pfrang '21 [1-10]
Noa Yoder '19 [11-13]
Engineers Emily Haig '21 [1-13] Sarah Caso '19 [1-4, 8]
Brooke Mcgoldrick '20 [5-7, 9-13]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Carolyn Corbet '21 Kelley Phippen '22
Huskies Victoria Pajak '21 Coleen Ross '20
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Kelsey Shakin '19 Kristi Dolan '20
Hawks Madeline Pope '21 Ariana Smaldone '20
Tufts University Tufts University Talia Toland '22 Ann Sheridan '22
Jumbos Charlotte Lenz '20 Marley Hillman '21
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Madelynn Widmeier '19 Christina Nothacker '21
Bears Darden Purrington '20 [1-10]
Lily Maranto '22 [11-13]		 Halee Lewis '21 [1-10]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rebecca Read '21 [1-7]
Meghan Haviland '22 [8-13]		 Sage Walters '21 [1-7]
Sophie Jackson '20 [8-13]
Rams Megan Gimple '22 Taylor Borges '22
University of Vermont University of Vermont Lolly Vasilion '22 Emma Janson '19
Catamounts Emma Marston '22 Amy Sloat '20
Yale University Yale University Emery Wallace '21 Kathryn Clulo '21
Bulldogs Anisha Arcot '23 Helena Ware '23

Conditions — 09/08/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1020.3 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 9.1 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From NE (56°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine2.0 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1020.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn · NE 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.12 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.18
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.18 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →