Northeastern University '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.88 (fleet 2.59) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–24 (17%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 5–24 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 5–24 against 4.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 2.23 | 2.59 | 4–16 | 3.2 | +0.36 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 2019-03-24 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.19 | 1.59 | 1–8 | 1.6 | −0.60 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.1 | 1.97 |
| Women's Showcase Qualifier A Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.9 | 3.24 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.5 | 1.81 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.8 | 3.42 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.3 | 3.11 |
| Jen Harris Women's Showcase Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.6 | 2.65 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 20 | 20% | — |
| ODU Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.8 | 2.34 |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.4 | 2.87 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.2 | 2.76 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.4 | 2.18 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.6 | 2.68 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.1 | 2.62 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.8 | 2.27 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.4 | 2.26 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 9.5 | 2.58 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.5 | 2.20 |
| Jen Harris Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.7 | 2.73 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 11.7 | 1.87 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 11.5 | 1.40 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 12.7 | 1.91 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.2 | 2.32 |
| PC Invite 2017 | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.0 | 1.36 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.3 | 1.35 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Victoria Pajak |  Bishop Stang High |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
