Women's Team Race National Invitational

HostBrown
Date04/13/2019
TypeNOT ALLOWED Promotional
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Brown University	Bears 1	17–2
2	Dartmouth College	Big Green	14–5
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	13–6
4	Boston University	Terriers	12–7
5	Brown University	Bears 2	12–7
6	Cornell University	Big Red	11–8
7	University of Rhode Island	Rams	7–12
8	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	6–13
9	University of South Florida	Bulls	10–10
10	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	10–10
11	Harvard University	Crimson	7–13
12	Northeastern University	Huskies	4–16
13	Tufts University	Jumbos	3–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 13,699 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-13, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 99 of 126 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.508 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.10 ± 0.17: a typical event, more orderly than 32% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Brown University Bears 1	1	10.57 school +0.20, home +0.36	Ragna Agerup / Abigayle Konys 3.42 11–2 Sophie Hibben / Megha Malpani 3.10 10–1 Hannah Steadman / Emily Ito 3.51 10–1 Hannah Steadman / Maxine De Havenon 3.38 5–1 Sophie Hibben / Maxine De Havenon 3.07 3–1 Ragna Agerup / Maxine De Havenon 3.36 3–0 Sophie Hibben / Emma Montgomery 3.13 3–0 Ragna Agerup / Megha Malpani 3.40 2–0 Hannah Steadman / Emma Montgomery 3.45 2–0 Ragna Agerup / Emma Montgomery 3.42 1–0 Sophie Hibben / Abigayle Konys 3.16 1–0	89%	17–2 (89%)	+0.1
2	Dartmouth College Big Green	2	9.50 school +0.27	Rebecca Mcelvain / Lisa Genthner Emma White / Alyssa Berger 3.28 Audrey Giblin / Mary Amis 3.12	73%	14–5 (74%)	+0.0
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4	9.13	Dana Haig / Sarah Caso 2.85 12–6 Annie Hughes / Tiffany Xi 2.95 8–4 Emily Haig / Brooke Mcgoldrick 3.25 7–5 Emily Haig / Julia Cho 3.42 6–1 Annie Hughes / Noa Yoder 2.90 5–2 Dana Haig / Maile Jim 2.90 1–0	66%	13–6 (68%)	+0.5
4	Boston University Terriers	7	8.54 school −0.17	Grace Mooradian / Hannah Davis 2.77 Allison Cahn / Katherine Bertolini 2.52 Maia Agerup / Emily Croteau 3.37	53%	12–7 (63%)	+1.9
5	Brown University Bears 2	8	8.35 school +0.20, home +0.36	Rachel Foster / Annabelle Hutchinson 2.85 9–6 Olivia Belda / Madeleine Montagner 2.87 9–6 Blaire Mccarthy / Elizabeth Rolfes 6–5 Blaire Mccarthy / Catherine Mcclenahan 3–1 Rachel Foster / Catherine Mcclenahan 2.77 3–1 Elizabeth Rolfes / Madeleine Montagner 3–1 Olivia Belda / Annabelle Hutchinson 2.99 3–1	50%	12–7 (63%)	+2.5
6	Cornell University Big Red	5	8.92 school +0.19	Gabby Rizika / Diana Otis 2.95 Brooke Shachoy / Kimberly Wong 2.98 Daisy Holthus / Ana Schonander 2.67 8–8 Sebby Turner / Ana Schonander 3–0	61%	11–8 (58%)	−0.7
7	University of Rhode Island Rams	11	7.30 school −0.38	Delaney Bamford / Kathryn Nota 2.88 Rebecca Read / Sage Walters 2.55 Kylie Castellano / Cecilia Schneider	30%	7–12 (37%)	+1.3
8	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	10	7.60 school +0.24	Claire Havig / Hannah Konkel 2.50 Ellie Maus / Isabelle Austin-Green 2.63 5–7 Ellie Maus / Gigi Diserio 2.45 1–6 Kelsey Slack / Caitlin Tardio 2.30 2–5 Kelsey Slack / Teagan Cunningham 2.16 1–4 Teagan Cunningham / Caitlin Tardio 3–2 Kelsey Slack / Isabelle Austin-Green 2.35 0–2	34%	6–13 (32%)	−0.5
9	University of South Florida Bulls	9	6.93 school +0.12	Marina Barzaghi / Darby Capellin 3.17 Kathryn Bornarth / Samantha Kappaz 2.24 Rachel Yannelli / Chloe Sweeting	37%	10–10 (50%)	+2.7
10	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3	8.57 school +0.07	Amanda Majernik / Emelia Bartusiak 2.73 Lenox Butcher / Jenna Weiner 2.79 Ava Esquier / Dana Hackett 2.93	69%	10–10 (50%)	−3.8
11	Harvard University Crimson	6	7.95	Emma Kaneti / Emma Jakobson Taylor Gavula / Emily Wang 2.86 Catherine Kerner / Lisa Van Der Sluijs 2.09	57%	7–13 (35%)	−4.4
12	Northeastern University Huskies	13	5.72	Carolyn Corbet / Kelley Phippen 2.49 Bridget Maguire / Ellen Reagan 0.84 Victoria Pajak / Coleen Ross 2.23 2–8 Victoria Pajak / Morgan Termaat 2.29 2–8	16%	4–16 (20%)	+0.8
13	Tufts University Jumbos	12	5.74 school +0.13	Lera Anders / Jessica Friedman 1.88 Elena Gonick / Mo Liu 1.83 3–11 Alexandra Talbot / Hailey Mckelvie 1.72 3–11 Elena Gonick / Paige Tyler 1.86 0–6 Alexandra Talbot / Audrey Becker 1.87 0–6	16%	3–17 (15%)	−0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
9	University of South Florida Bulls	6.93	7.74	10–10	7.3	+0.80	1.6	11%
5	Brown University Bears 2	8.35	9.05	12–7	9.5	+0.70	1.2	15%
4	Boston University Terriers	8.54	9.08	12–7	10.1	+0.54	0.7	23%
7	University of Rhode Island Rams	7.30	7.70	7–12	5.7	+0.40	0.4	32%
12	Northeastern University Huskies	5.72	6.07	4–16	3.2	+0.36	0.2	39%
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	9.13	9.28	13–6	12.5	+0.15	0.1	51%
1	Brown University Bears 1	10.57	10.60	17–2	16.9	+0.04	0.0	66%
2	Dartmouth College Big Green	9.50	9.52	14–5	14.0	+0.01	0.0	62%
13	Tufts University Jumbos	5.74	5.62	3–17	3.3	−0.12	0.0	68%
8	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	7.60	7.43	6–13	6.5	−0.17	0.1	71%
6	Cornell University Big Red	8.92	8.73	11–8	11.7	−0.19	0.1	74%
10	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	8.57	7.41	10–10	13.9	−1.16	3.3	99%
11	Harvard University Crimson	7.95	6.61	7–13	11.4	−1.33	4.2	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Rachel Yannelli	University of South Florida	1.28	2.08	10–10	7.3	+0.80	1.6	11%
Rachel Foster	Brown University	2.85	3.55	12–7	9.5	+0.70	1.2	15%
Olivia Belda	Brown University	2.87	3.58	12–7	9.5	+0.70	1.2	15%
Grace Mooradian	Boston University	2.77	3.31	12–7	10.1	+0.54	0.7	23%
Allison Cahn	Boston University	2.52	3.06	12–7	10.1	+0.54	0.7	23%
Kylie Castellano	University of Rhode Island	1.95	2.35	7–12	5.7	+0.40	0.4	32%
Carolyn Corbet	Northeastern University	2.49	2.85	4–16	3.2	+0.36	0.2	39%
Bridget Maguire	Northeastern University	0.84	1.20	4–16	3.2	+0.36	0.2	39%
Teagan Cunningham	Bowdoin College	2.13	2.40	3–2	2.8	+0.27	0.0	60%
Annie Hughes	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.95	3.10	13–6	12.5	+0.15	0.1	51%
Sophie Hibben	Brown University	3.10	3.14	17–2	16.9	+0.04	0.0	66%
Audrey Giblin	Dartmouth College	3.12	3.13	14–5	14.0	+0.01	0.0	62%
Alexandra Talbot	Tufts University	1.72	1.61	3–17	3.3	−0.12	0.0	68%
Claire Havig	Bowdoin College	2.50	2.33	6–13	6.5	−0.17	0.1	71%
Gabby Rizika	Cornell University	2.95	2.76	11–8	11.7	−0.19	0.1	74%
Kelsey Slack	Bowdoin College	2.30	1.94	3–11	3.8	−0.36	0.2	80%
Amanda Majernik	University of Pennsylvania	2.73	1.56	10–10	13.9	−1.16	3.3	99%
Lera Anders	Tufts University	1.88	0.72	10–10	13.9	−1.16	3.3	99%
Ava Esquier	University of Pennsylvania	2.93	1.77	10–10	13.9	−1.16	3.3	99%
Taylor Gavula	Harvard University	2.86	1.53	7–13	11.4	−1.33	4.2	>99%
Catherine Kerner	Harvard University	2.09	0.76	7–13	11.4	−1.33	4.2	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Brown University Bears 1	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	96%
1	2	Cornell University Big Red	Boston University Terriers	58%
1	3	University of South Florida Bulls	Harvard University Crimson	26%	upset
1	4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Northeastern University Huskies	98%
1	5	Tufts University Jumbos	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5%	upset
1	6	Brown University Bears 2	University of Rhode Island Rams	73%
1	7	Dartmouth College Big Green	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	89%
1	8	Brown University Bears 1	Boston University Terriers	89%
1	9	Cornell University Big Red	University of South Florida Bulls	88%
1	10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Harvard University Crimson	80%
1	11	Northeastern University Huskies	Tufts University Jumbos	50%	upset
1	12	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	University of Rhode Island Rams	81%
1	13	Brown University Bears 2	Dartmouth College Big Green	20%	upset
1	14	Brown University Bears 1	University of South Florida Bulls	98%
1	15	Cornell University Big Red	Harvard University Crimson	73%
1	16	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Boston University Terriers	68%
1	17	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	Northeastern University Huskies	95%
1	18	University of Rhode Island Rams	Dartmouth College Big Green	9%	upset
1	19	University of South Florida Bulls	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	37%	upset
1	20	Cornell University Big Red	Brown University Bears 1	16%	upset
1	21	Harvard University Crimson	Tufts University Jumbos	91%
1	22	Boston University Terriers	Brown University Bears 2	59%
1	23	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	67%
1	24	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	University of Rhode Island Rams	56%
1	25	Dartmouth College Big Green	Northeastern University Huskies	98%
1	26	Brown University Bears 1	Tufts University Jumbos	99%
1	27	Brown University Bears 2	Harvard University Crimson	58%
1	28	Boston University Terriers	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	49%	upset
1	29	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Cornell University Big Red	58%
1	30	Dartmouth College Big Green	University of South Florida Bulls	93%
1	31	University of Rhode Island Rams	Northeastern University Huskies	83%
1	32	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Tufts University Jumbos	87%
1	33	Brown University Bears 1	Brown University Bears 2	90%
1	34	Cornell University Big Red	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	59%
1	35	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	University of South Florida Bulls	90%
1	36	Boston University Terriers	Dartmouth College Big Green	28%	upset
1	37	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Harvard University Crimson	41%	upset
1	38	University of Rhode Island Rams	Tufts University Jumbos	83%
1	39	Brown University Bears 2	Northeastern University Huskies	94%
1	40	University of South Florida Bulls	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	16%	upset
1	41	Brown University Bears 1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	81%
1	42	Dartmouth College Big Green	Cornell University Big Red	63%
1	43	Boston University Terriers	Harvard University Crimson	65%
1	44	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Northeastern University Huskies	87%
1	45	Brown University Bears 2	Tufts University Jumbos	93%
1	46	University of Rhode Island Rams	University of South Florida Bulls	59%
1	47	Brown University Bears 1	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	87%
1	48	Dartmouth College Big Green	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	60%
1	49	Boston University Terriers	Northeastern University Huskies	94%
1	50	Brown University Bears 2	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	69%
1	51	Cornell University Big Red	Tufts University Jumbos	95%
1	52	Harvard University Crimson	University of Rhode Island Rams	65%
1	53	Brown University Bears 1	Dartmouth College Big Green	74%
1	54	Northeastern University Huskies	University of South Florida Bulls	23%	upset
1	55	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Brown University Bears 2	65%
1	56	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	29%	upset
1	57	Boston University Terriers	Tufts University Jumbos	94%
1	58	Cornell University Big Red	University of Rhode Island Rams	79%
1	59	Brown University Bears 1	Harvard University Crimson	93%
1	60	Brown University Bears 2	University of South Florida Bulls	80%
1	61	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	79%
1	62	Dartmouth College Big Green	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	72%
1	63	Boston University Terriers	University of Rhode Island Rams	77%
1	64	Harvard University Crimson	Northeastern University Huskies	90%
1	65	University of South Florida Bulls	Tufts University Jumbos	76%
1	66	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Cornell University Big Red	22%	upset
1	67	Brown University Bears 2	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	45%	upset
1	68	University of Rhode Island Rams	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	16%	upset
1	69	Dartmouth College Big Green	Harvard University Crimson	83%
1	70	Brown University Bears 1	Northeastern University Huskies	99%
1	71	Boston University Terriers	University of South Florida Bulls	83%
1	72	Brown University Bears 2	Cornell University Big Red	37%	upset
1	73	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Tufts University Jumbos	96%
1	74	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	Harvard University Crimson	65%
1	75	Brown University Bears 1	University of Rhode Island Rams	96%
1	76	Boston University Terriers	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	70%
1	77	Northeastern University Huskies	Cornell University Big Red	4%	upset
1	78	Dartmouth College Big Green	Tufts University Jumbos	98%
2	79	Dartmouth College Big Green	Brown University Bears 2	75%
2	80	Cornell University Big Red	Boston University Terriers	61%
2	81	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	79%
2	82	Brown University Bears 1	University of Rhode Island Rams	96%
2	83	Boston University Terriers	Brown University Bears 2	53%
2	84	Dartmouth College Big Green	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	60%
2	85	Cornell University Big Red	University of Rhode Island Rams	79%
2	86	Brown University Bears 1	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	95%
2	87	Boston University Terriers	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	33%	upset
2	88	Brown University Bears 2	University of Rhode Island Rams	74%
2	89	Dartmouth College Big Green	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	88%
2	90	Brown University Bears 1	Cornell University Big Red	83%
2	91	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	University of Rhode Island Rams	84%
2	92	Boston University Terriers	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	70%
2	93	Cornell University Big Red	Brown University Bears 2	63%
2	94	Brown University Bears 1	Dartmouth College Big Green	75%
2	95	University of Rhode Island Rams	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	48%	upset
2	96	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Cornell University Big Red	56%
2	97	Dartmouth College Big Green	Boston University Terriers	72%
2	98	Brown University Bears 1	Brown University Bears 2	89%
2	99	Cornell University Big Red	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	79%
2	100	Dartmouth College Big Green	University of Rhode Island Rams	89%
2	101	Brown University Bears 2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	36%	upset
2	102	Brown University Bears 1	Boston University Terriers	89%
2	103	Dartmouth College Big Green	Cornell University Big Red	61%
2	104	Brown University Bears 2	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	70%
2	105	University of Rhode Island Rams	Boston University Terriers	24%	upset
2	106	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Brown University Bears 1	20%	upset
3	107	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	Harvard University Crimson	65%
3	108	University of South Florida Bulls	Northeastern University Huskies	77%
3	109	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	Tufts University Jumbos	94%
3	110	University of South Florida Bulls	Harvard University Crimson	27%	upset
3	111	Northeastern University Huskies	Tufts University Jumbos	49%	upset
3	112	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	University of South Florida Bulls	83%
3	113	Harvard University Crimson	Northeastern University Huskies	90%
3	114	University of South Florida Bulls	Tufts University Jumbos	76%
3	115	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	Northeastern University Huskies	95%
3	116	Harvard University Crimson	Tufts University Jumbos	90%
4	117	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	Harvard University Crimson	65%
4	118	University of South Florida Bulls	Northeastern University Huskies	76%
4	119	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	Tufts University Jumbos	94%
4	120	Harvard University Crimson	University of South Florida Bulls	73%
4	121	Tufts University Jumbos	Northeastern University Huskies	51%
4	122	University of South Florida Bulls	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	17%	upset
4	123	Harvard University Crimson	Northeastern University Huskies	90%
4	124	University of South Florida Bulls	Tufts University Jumbos	76%
4	125	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	Northeastern University Huskies	94%
4	126	Tufts University Jumbos	Harvard University Crimson	10%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	1	Green	Engineers	Terriers	2	Red	Rams	Bears	Bulls	Quakers	Crimson	Huskies	Jumbos
Brown University Bears 1	20–4	✕	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	8–4	L	✕	W	L	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	9–3	W	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	9–3	W	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears 2	20–4	✕	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	7–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	L	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	5–7	L	W	W	L	L	L	✕	L	W	L	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	4–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	L
Harvard University Crimson	3–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	3–9	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	1	Green	Engineers	Terriers	2	Red	Rams	Bears
Brown University Bears 1	9–5	✕	W	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–1	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–3	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	3–4	L	L	W	✕	L	L	L	W
Brown University Bears 2	9–5	✕	W	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	4–3	W	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Bulls	Quakers	Crimson	Huskies	Jumbos
University of South Florida Bulls	3–1	✕	L	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–0	W	✕	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	2–2	L	L	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	1–3	L	L	L	✕	W
Tufts University Jumbos	0–4	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bulls	Quakers	Crimson	Huskies	Jumbos
University of South Florida Bulls	3–1	✕	W	L	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–1	L	✕	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	2–2	W	L	✕	W	L
Northeastern University Huskies	0–4	L	L	L	✕	L
Tufts University Jumbos	2–2	L	L	W	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bears 1	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
2	Big Red	1-3-6	def.	Terriers	2-4-5
3	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
4	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
5	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Quakers	2-3-6
6	Bears 2	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
7	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
8	Bears 1	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
9	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
10	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
11	Huskies	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
12	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
13	Bears 2	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
14	Bears 1	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
15	Big Red	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
16	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
17	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Huskies	2-5-6
18	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
19	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
20	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Bears 1	1-5-6
21	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
22	Terriers	1-3-4	def.	Bears 2	2-5-6
23	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
24	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
25	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
26	Bears 1	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
27	Bears 2	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
28	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
29	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
30	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
31	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
32	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
33	Bears 1	1-2-4	def.	Bears 2	3-5-6
34	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
35	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
36	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
37	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
38	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
39	Bears 2	1-3-4	def.	Huskies	2-5-6
40	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
41	Bears 1	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
42	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
43	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
44	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
45	Bears 2	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
46	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
47	Bears 1	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
48	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
49	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
50	Bears 2	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
51	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
52	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
53	Bears 1	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
54	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
55	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears 2	3-4-6
56	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
57	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
58	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
59	Bears 1	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
60	Bears 2	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
61	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
62	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
63	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
64	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
65	Bulls	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
66	Polar Bears	2-3-5	def.	Big Red	1-4-6
67	Bears 2	2-3-5	def.	Quakers	1-4-6
68	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
69	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
70	Bears 1	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
71	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
72	Bears 2	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
73	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
74	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
75	Bears 1	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
76	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
77	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
78	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
79	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bears 2	3-4-6
80	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
81	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
82	Bears 1	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
83	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Bears 2	4-5-6
84	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
85	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
86	Bears 1	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
87	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
88	Bears 2	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
89	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
90	Bears 1	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
91	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
92	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
93	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Bears 2	3-4-5
94	Bears 1	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
95	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
96	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Big Red	2-3-6
97	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
98	Bears 1	1-2-6	def.	Bears 2	3-4-5
99	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
100	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
101	Bears 2	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
102	Bears 1	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
103	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
104	Bears 2	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
105	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
106	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Bears 1	4-5-6
107	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
108	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
109	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
110	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
111	Huskies	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
112	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
113	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
114	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
115	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
116	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
117	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
118	Bulls	1-3-4	def.	Huskies	2-5-6
119	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
120	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Bulls	2-4-6
121	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Huskies	1-4-6
122	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
123	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
124	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
125	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
126	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Brown University	Bears 1	Hannah Steadman '20 Ragna Agerup '20 Sophie Hibben '19	Emily Ito '19 Maxine De Havenon '19 Emma Montgomery '22 Abigayle Konys '19 Megha Malpani '19
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Audrey Giblin '20 Emma White '19 Rebecca Mcelvain '19	Mary Amis '19 Alyssa Berger '19 Lisa Genthner '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Annie Hughes '19 Dana Haig '22 Emily Haig '21	Tiffany Xi '19 Noa Yoder '19 Sarah Caso '19 Maile Jim '22 Brooke Mcgoldrick '20 Julia Cho '20
Boston University	Terriers	Allison Cahn '20 Grace Mooradian '21 Maia Agerup '20	Katherine Bertolini '21 Hannah Davis '19 Emily Croteau '19
Brown University	Bears 2	Blaire Mccarthy '23 Elizabeth Rolfes '21 Olivia Belda '22 Rachel Foster '20	Elizabeth Rolfes '21 Catherine Mcclenahan '21 Madeleine Montagner '22 Annabelle Hutchinson '21
Cornell University	Big Red	Brooke Shachoy '22 Daisy Holthus '21 Gabby Rizika '20 Sebby Turner '20	Kimberly Wong '19 Ana Schonander '20 Diana Otis '19
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Delaney Bamford '20 Kylie Castellano '21 Rebecca Read '21	Kathryn Nota '19 Cecilia Schneider '20 Sage Walters '21
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Claire Havig '21 Ellie Maus '22 Kelsey Slack '21 Teagan Cunningham '22	Hannah Konkel '20 Gigi Diserio '22 Isabelle Austin-Green '19 Caitlin Tardio '19 Teagan Cunningham '22
University of South Florida	Bulls	Kathryn Bornarth '21 Marina Barzaghi '21 Rachel Yannelli '19	Samantha Kappaz '21 Darby Capellin '19 Chloe Sweeting '22
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Amanda Majernik '22 Ava Esquier '20 Lenox Butcher '20	Emelia Bartusiak '21 Dana Hackett '20 Jenna Weiner '21
Harvard University	Crimson	Catherine Kerner '20 Emma Kaneti '22 Taylor Gavula '19	Lisa Van Der Sluijs '21 Emma Jakobson '21 Emily Wang '21
Northeastern University	Huskies	Bridget Maguire '22 Carolyn Corbet '21 Victoria Pajak '21	Ellen Reagan '20 Kelley Phippen '22 Morgan Termaat '23 Coleen Ross '20
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alexandra Talbot '22 Elena Gonick '20 Lera Anders '22	Hailey Mckelvie '22 Audrey Becker '22 Mo Liu '22 Paige Tyler '22 Jessica Friedman '22

Conditions — 04/13/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 77% · Pressure 1017.0 hPa

Temperature

64°F

↑ 71°F ↓ 56°F

Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.0 kn

avg · max 10.0 kn

Gusts to 23.7 kn

From SSW (211°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine5.4 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1017.0 hPa Rain0.22 in

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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