Brown University '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.29 (fleet 3.11) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.04 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 45–11 (80%) as crew 7–7 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 13–2 | — |
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 8–0 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 22–7 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 7–7 |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 2–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (70 matches) the record is 52–18 against 40.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+11.9). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 15 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-29 | Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.94 | 3.89 | 13–2 | 11.0 | +0.95 | 1.3 | 18% |
| 2019-10-26 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 2.85 | 5.85 | 8–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 4.3 | 4% |
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 2.85 | 3.55 | 12–7 | 9.5 | +0.70 | 1.2 | 15% |
| 2019-03-24 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.51 | 5.51 | 10–0 | 5.7 | ≥+3.00 | 8.5 | <1% |
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | crew | 2.20 | 2.35 | 7–7 | 6.5 | +0.15 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 2017-11-04 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 1.90 | 2.17 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.27 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.0 | 3.44 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.9 | 3.43 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.2 | 3.65 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.8 | 2.30 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.0 | 2.20 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.0 | 2.71 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 100% | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 4 | 6.5 | 3.92 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 63% | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.0 | 3.61 |
| Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.4 | 3.50 |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.1 | 4.28 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 100% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.4 | 3.44 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.8 | 3.15 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 14.2 | 1.82 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.5 | 2.69 |
| Central 2 | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.4 | 2.19 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.4 | 1.90 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Weekday Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.0 | 1.99 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.0 | 2.52 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.6 | 2.27 |
| Penobscot Bay Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.9 | 5.14 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| J70 Tuesday Invite - 1 Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 2.8 | — |
| Central | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.7 | 2.58 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.0 | 2.47 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.1 | 3.46 |
| Southern Series 7 | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.2 | 3.69 |
| Southern 5 | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.8 | -2.02 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.9 | 2.13 |
| J70 Tuesday Invite Five Keelboat | Crew | A | 4 | 2.8 | — |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.8 | 2.10 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 5 | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.4 | 2.90 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.4 | 1.86 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 2.65 |
| Central Series 1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.8 | 3.35 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.9 | 1.96 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
