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Icebreaker Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 17 23 40
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 30 14 44
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 38 14 52
4 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 35 25 60
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 39 31 70
6 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 41 39 80
7 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 61 23 84
8 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 50 57 107
9 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 68 43 111
10 Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 80 42 122
11 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 71 54 125
12 Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 71 72 143
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 1 3 17 Rachel Foster '20
Catherine Mcclenahan '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 7 2 2 1 3 1 6 8 30 Talia Toland '22
Ann Sheridan '22
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 3 3 7 1 6 5 7 35 Kelsey Shakin '19
Kristi Dolan '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 2 8 6 6 2 10 2 2 38 Elena Gonick '20
Mo Liu '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 4 5 5 4 6 7 7 1 39 Alexandra Talbot '22
Paige Tyler '22
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 BYE BYE BYE 3 11 3 4 5 41 Elizabeth Rolfes '21
Madeleine Montagner '22
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 6 4 4 8 5 9 10 4 50 Jennifer Killian '19
Allison Gilson '21
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 10 6 10 10 7 2 BYE BYE 61 Joshua Stone '20
Kiley Roach '21
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 9 7 11 5 10 5 11 10 68 Morgan Termaat '23
Ellen Reagan '19
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 8 9 8 BYE BYE BYE 8 11 71 Adam Gibbs '22
Brett Sokol '19
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 11 11 7 11 8 8 3 12 71 Adam Wolnikowski '21
Alexandra Contomichalos '22
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 12 12 12 9 9 11 9 6 80 Mitchell Owen '20
Lilliana Delmonico '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 1 1 1 2 4 5 14 Abbie Carlson '22
Audrey Becker '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 2 5 3 1 1 2 14 Lera Anders '22
Dorothy Waskow '22
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 3 4 2 4 6 4 23 Blaire Mccarthy '23
Jack Papetti '21
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 5 3 6 3 5 1 23 Nicholas Salvesen '22
Amy Sloat '20
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 7 2 4 BYE BYE BYE 25 Madeline Pope '21
Ariana Smaldone '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 4 9 5 8 2 3 31 Evan Robison '21
Mallory Hood '22
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 9 6 8 7 3 6 39 Aidan Biondi '22
Justin Chiang '21
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags BYE BYE BYE 6 7 8 42 Giles Ruck '21
Jillian Casey '22
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 6 8 7 5 8 9 43 Carter Brock '22
Alexander Chamberlin '23
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 10 10 9 9 9 7 54 Jonathan Schwartz '21
Allison Rice '23
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 8 7 10 11 11 10 57 Molly Hanrahan '22
Zachary Steuer '21
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 12 12 12 12 12 12 72 Katherine Boback '21
Sorcha Mccrohan '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths1113331515
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 12221212121010
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 233315151577
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags4442221212
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies15151577799
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks66644422
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks7779991111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 188866644
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 299911111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 310101088866
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts11111111133
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs12121210101088

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths222444
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 1111111111
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 2444666
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags333111
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies666888
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks151515333
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks888101010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1777151515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2101010121212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3999777
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts121212222
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs111111999

Conditions — 03/09/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1026.0 hPa

Temperature

34°F
↑ 39°F   ↓ 20°F
Feels like 27°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.4 kn
Gusts to 11.1 kn
From NNW (337°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1026.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 7 kn · E 13 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →