Roger Williams University '20
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 5.99 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.071 rating points from 420 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.19 (fleet 0.26) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 17–20 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | — | 6–9 |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 6–6 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 5–5 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (37 matches) the record is 17–20 against 19.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-16 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | crew | 1.90 | 2.19 | 6–9 | 5.1 | +0.29 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 2018-03-31 | Herring Pond Team Race | crew | 1.34 | 0.53 | 6–6 | 7.4 | −0.81 | 0.8 | 93% |
| 2017-03-26 | BU Team Race | crew | 2.54 | 1.38 | 5–5 | 7.2 | −1.16 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Rhody Riveter Womens' Women's | Crew | B | 15 | 8.2 | — |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Crew | A | 7 | 8.1 | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 13.1 | — |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Crew | B | 16 | 5.4 | — |
| Mt. Hope Invite | Crew | A | 7 | 5.1 | — |
| Moody Trophy | Crew | A | 13 | 13.8 | — |
| Hood Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 8.8 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | C | 4 | 12.8 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | B | 12 | 9.8 | — |
| Rhody the Riveter Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 8.2 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 11 | 6.9 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 12.8 | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Crew | B | 3 | 4.3 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 13.6 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 15.4 | 0.02 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 13.1 | — |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Crew | B | 13 | 10.2 | — |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 9.0 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | B | 13 | 8.5 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 11 | 9.3 | — |
| Jen Harris Women's Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 11.5 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 11.0 | — |
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | B | 3 | 9.7 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 10.2 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 10.3 | — |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Crew | B | 16 | 12.0 | — |
| Herring Pond Team Race | Crew | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| Coast Guard J/70 Open Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 3.8 | — |
| Central 2 | Crew | B | 7 | 5.1 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | A | 13 | 13.4 | — |
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 9.3 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 13.0 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | B | 14 | 5.3 | — |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 7.7 | — |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 16 | 13.6 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 11 | 3.3 | — |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 8.7 | — |
| BU Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 13.8 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Crew | B | 13 | 5.4 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 4.7 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 16 | 9.8 | — |
| Central Series 1 | Crew | A | 12 | 6.5 | — |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 6.3 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Ariana Smaldone |  Bishop Stang High |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
