Roger Williams University '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.68 (fleet 2.32) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–9 (40%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 6–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 6–9 against 5.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-16 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.90 | 2.19 | 6–9 | 5.1 | +0.29 | 0.2 | 39% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Rhody Riveter Womens' Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.1 | 1.38 |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.1 | 1.85 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.1 | 1.58 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.9 | 2.60 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.1 | 1.82 |
| Mt. Hope Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.6 | 2.80 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.8 | 2.01 |
| Rhody the Riveter Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.2 | -0.81 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 6.9 | 2.09 |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 13.0 | 1.68 |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.3 | 0.45 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 13.6 | 1.83 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 13.1 | 1.24 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.2 | 1.34 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.0 | 1.89 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.3 | 2.33 |
| Jen Harris Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.5 | 1.93 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Madeline Pope |  Bishop Stang High |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
