Roger Williams University '20
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 22.84 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.077 rating points from 301 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.99 (fleet 1.36) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 70–39 (64%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | — | 16–4 |
| Spring 2019 | 2 | — | 14–12 |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | — | 18–9 |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | — | 13–14 |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | — | 9–0 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (109 matches) the record is 70–39 against 64.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.2). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | crew | 2.70 | 3.35 | 16–4 | 14.1 | +0.65 | 0.9 | 21% |
| 2019-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | crew | 2.62 | 3.73 | 8–3 | 5.7 | +1.12 | 1.8 | 11% |
| 2019-03-16 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | crew | 2.70 | 2.99 | 6–9 | 5.1 | +0.29 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 2018-03-31 | Herring Pond Team Race | crew | 2.13 | 1.32 | 6–6 | 7.4 | −0.81 | 0.8 | 93% |
| 2018-03-24 | BU Team Race | crew | 2.48 | 3.40 | 12–3 | 10.1 | +0.92 | 1.2 | 17% |
| 2017-04-02 | Herring Pond Team Race | crew | 2.99 | 2.17 | 8–4 | 9.5 | −0.82 | 0.9 | 94% |
| 2017-03-25 | NEISA/MAISA Team Race | crew | 2.92 | 2.99 | 5–10 | 4.8 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2016-10-16 | Franklin Lane Trophy | crew | 3.11 | 6.11 | 9–0 | 8.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 47% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| Rhody Riveter Womens' Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 7.1 | — |
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Crew | TR | 22 | 82% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Crew | B | 10 | 11.0 | — |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | B | 16 | 11.4 | — |
| Mt. Hope Invite | Crew | B | 7 | 5.6 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | A | 12 | 9.9 | — |
| Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Crew | A | 15 | 10.3 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Rhody the Riveter Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 4.0 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 11 | 4.6 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 3 | 16.0 | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Crew | TR | 11 | 73% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Crew | A | 8 | 4.4 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 13 | 11.0 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Showcase Final B Women's | Crew | A | 18 | 7.6 | — |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 10.9 | — |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Crew | A | 13 | 7.9 | — |
| Sister Esther Open | Crew | A | 6 | 9.8 | — |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 3.0 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 3 | 9.0 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 11 | 9.0 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 6.8 | — |
| Herring Pond Team Race | Crew | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| BU Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | B | 13 | 15.5 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 16.7 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay | Crew | A | 4 | 8.5 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | A | 14 | 4.9 | — |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 16 | 14.1 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 6.8 | — |
| NEISA/MAISA Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Herring Pond Team Race | Crew | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy | Crew | B | 8 | 5.2 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Crew | A | 11 | 6.3 | — |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Crew | B | 17 | 13.4 | — |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Crew | TR | 9 | 100% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Kristi Dolan |  St. John the Baptist |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
