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Herring Pond Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 10–2
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 8–4
3 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 8–4
4 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4–8
5 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 8,592 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 30 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.417 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.00 ± 0.33: a typical event, more orderly than 42% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Tufts University
Jumbos		28.39
school +0.07		Florian Eenkema Van Dijk / Sarah Bunney
Samuel Shea / Emma Clutterbuck
Jackson Mccoy / Emily Calandrella 2.79		75%10–2 (83%)+1.0
2Roger Williams University
Hawks		18.54
school +0.09		Preston Duclos / Kylie Freitas 2.77
Kelsey Shakin / Tyler Killion 2.61
Peter Neal / Kristi Dolan 2.99		79%8–4 (67%)−1.5
3Bowdoin College
Polar Bears		37.65
school +0.22		Michael Kann / Caitlin Tardio 1.92
Christian Filter / Marie Bergsund 2.88
Matt Safford / Hannah Konkel 2.42		61%8–4 (67%)+0.7
4Northeastern University
Huskies		45.71Kyle Riggs / Romain Astie
Carolyn Corbet / Julia Boll
Zachary Bresnick / Jon Ewing		22%4–8 (33%)+1.4
5Massachusetts Maritime Academy
Buccaneers		55.23
school +0.06, home +0.38		Adam Bilodeau / Maya Stephani
Alexander Bowen / Sergio Gratta
Braden Foster / Megan Laurie		14%0–12 (0%)−1.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
4Northeastern University5.716.614–82.6+0.901.021%
1Tufts University8.399.0110–29.0+0.620.437%
3Bowdoin College7.658.058–47.3+0.400.243%
2Roger Williams University8.547.738–49.5−0.820.994%
5Massachusetts Maritime Academy5.232.230–121.6≤−3.002.7>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Kyle RiggsNortheastern University1.852.754–82.6+0.901.021%
Carolyn CorbetNortheastern University1.472.374–82.6+0.901.021%
Zachary BresnickNortheastern University1.692.594–82.6+0.901.021%
Samuel SheaTufts University2.393.0110–29.0+0.620.437%
Michael KannBowdoin College1.922.328–47.3+0.400.243%
Adam BilodeauMassachusetts Maritime Academy1.38-1.620–121.6≤−3.002.7>99%
Alexander BowenMassachusetts Maritime Academy1.93-1.070–121.6≤−3.002.7>99%
Braden FosterMassachusetts Maritime Academy1.09-1.910–121.6≤−3.002.7>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Bowdoin CollegeMassachusetts Maritime Academy93%
12Northeastern UniversityRoger Williams University3%upset
13Tufts UniversityBowdoin College61%
14Northeastern UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy57%
15Bowdoin CollegeNortheastern University89%
16Tufts UniversityRoger Williams University42%upset
17Tufts UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy96%
18Roger Williams UniversityBowdoin College71%
19Tufts UniversityNortheastern University94%
110Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy97%
211Tufts UniversityBowdoin College68%
212Northeastern UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy62%
213Tufts UniversityRoger Williams University47%upset
214Bowdoin CollegeMassachusetts Maritime Academy92%
215Tufts UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy96%
216Roger Williams UniversityNortheastern University94%
217Bowdoin CollegeRoger Williams University29%upset
218Tufts UniversityNortheastern University94%
219Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy96%
220Bowdoin CollegeNortheastern University86%
321Roger Williams UniversityTufts University51%
322Bowdoin CollegeMassachusetts Maritime Academy91%
323Roger Williams UniversityNortheastern University93%
324Bowdoin CollegeTufts University31%upset
325Roger Williams UniversityBowdoin College70%
326Northeastern UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy64%
327Tufts UniversityNortheastern University93%
328Roger Williams UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy96%
329Bowdoin CollegeNortheastern University85%
330Tufts UniversityMassachusetts Maritime Academy96%

Round 1

TeamRec.JumbosHawksBearsHuskiesBuccaneers
Tufts University Jumbos4–0✕WWWW
Roger Williams University Hawks2–2L✕WLW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears2–2LL✕WW
Northeastern University Huskies2–2LWL✕W
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.JumbosHawksBearsHuskiesBuccaneers
Tufts University Jumbos4–0✕WWWW
Roger Williams University Hawks2–2L✕LWW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears3–1LW✕WW
Northeastern University Huskies1–3LLL✕W
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers0–4LLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.JumbosHawksBearsHuskiesBuccaneers
Tufts University Jumbos2–2✕LLWW
Roger Williams University Hawks4–0W✕WWW
Bowdoin College Polar Bears3–1WL✕WW
Northeastern University Huskies1–3LLL✕W
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers0–4LLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4-5-6
2 Northeastern University Huskies 1-4-5 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-6
3 Tufts University Jumbos 1-4-5 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-3-6
4 Northeastern University Huskies 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-4-6
5 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6
6 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-5
7 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4-5-6
8 Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-5-6
9 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-5-6
10 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-5-6
11 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-4-5
12 Northeastern University Huskies 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4-5-6
13 Tufts University Jumbos 2-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1-5-6
14 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-4-5
15 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4-5-6
16 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-3-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 2-5-6
17 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-4-5
18 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-5
19 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4-5-6
20 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2-3-4 def. Northeastern University Huskies 1-5-6
21 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
22 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-6 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-4-5
23 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. Northeastern University Huskies 4-5-6
24 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
25 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3-5-6
26 Northeastern University Huskies 2-3-5 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 1-4-6
27 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-6
28 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4-5-6
29 Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1-2-6 def. Northeastern University Huskies 3-4-5
30 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 3-4-6

Conditions — 04/02/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 35°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.1 kn
avg  ·  max 11.1 kn
Gusts to 22.9 kn
From NNW (337°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1016.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Mass Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Mass Maritime in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mass Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled fleet-race days at Mass Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →