Bowdoin College '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.82 (fleet 2.48) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 37–30 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 17–13 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 20–17 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (67 matches) the record is 37–30 against 31.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-31 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | skipper | 2.25 | 3.10 | 9–6 | 6.2 | +0.85 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 2018-03-24 | BC Team Race | skipper | 2.19 | 2.39 | 8–7 | 7.4 | +0.20 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 2017-04-08 | Harpswell Sound Team Race (Formerly Mystic L. TR) | skipper | 1.98 | 2.13 | 9–6 | 8.5 | +0.15 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 2017-04-02 | Herring Pond Team Race | skipper | 1.92 | 2.32 | 8–4 | 7.3 | +0.40 | 0.2 | 43% |
| 2017-03-26 | BU Team Race | skipper | 1.55 | 1.91 | 3–7 | 2.4 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 46% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| BC Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 3.6 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 7 | 7.4 | 3.20 |
| Fall Foliage | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.7 | 4.15 |
| Central Series | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.2 | 1.87 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Herring Pond Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race (Formerly Mystic L. TR) | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.9 | 1.58 |
| FJ Invitational | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.6 | 1.97 |
| Bowdoin Mid Week Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.2 | 3.17 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Bowdoin Midweek Invite | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.5 | -1.39 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
