| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears 1 | 10–5 |
| 2 | |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears 2 | 9–6 |
| 3 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 7–8 |
| 4 |  |
University of Vermont | Catamounts | 4–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,872 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-31, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 30 matches (60%) with a log-loss of 0.662 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.34 ± 0.46: a typical event, more orderly than 16% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | 1 | 8.07 school +0.27, home +0.40 | Alexander Vasiliou / Kevin Elk 2.61 Claire Havig / Martinique Ogle 2.07 Alden Grimes / Julia Adams 2.62 | 76% | 10–5 (67%) | −1.3 |
| 2 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 3 | 6.90 school +0.27, home +0.40 | Rowan Byrne / Kelsey Slack 1.94 Michael Kann / Isabelle Austin-Green 2.25 Louis Frumer / Eliza Jevon 1.92 | 41% | 9–6 (60%) | +2.8 |
| 3 | Tufts University Jumbos | 2 | 7.32 school +0.17 | Julien Guiot / Emma Clutterbuck 2.54 Aaron Klein / Kahler Newsham Bram Brakman / Sarah Bunney 2.33 | 54% | 7–8 (47%) | −1.1 |
| 4 | University of Vermont Catamounts | 4 | 6.51 | Vincent Yannelli / Isabella Arnaboldi 2.20 Cameron Nash / Samuel Magill-Dohan 1.99 Thomas Harden / Helen Field | 30% | 4–11 (27%) | −0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 6.90 | 7.75 | 9–6 | 6.2 | +0.85 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 4 | University of Vermont Catamounts | 6.51 | 6.36 | 4–11 | 4.4 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 3 | Tufts University Jumbos | 7.32 | 7.00 | 7–8 | 8.1 | −0.31 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 1 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | 8.07 | 7.62 | 10–5 | 11.3 | −0.45 | 0.5 | 87% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kann | Bowdoin College | 2.25 | 3.10 | 9–6 | 6.2 | +0.85 | 1.7 | 10% |
| Louis Frumer | Bowdoin College | 1.92 | 2.76 | 9–6 | 6.2 | +0.85 | 1.7 | 10% |
| Vincent Yannelli | University of Vermont | 2.20 | 2.05 | 4–11 | 4.4 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Thomas Harden | University of Vermont | 1.98 | 1.83 | 4–11 | 4.4 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Julien Guiot | Tufts University | 2.54 | 2.23 | 7–8 | 8.1 | −0.31 | 0.2 | 80% |
| Aaron Klein | Tufts University | 2.15 | 1.84 | 7–8 | 8.1 | −0.31 | 0.2 | 80% |
| Bram Brakman | Tufts University | 2.33 | 2.01 | 7–8 | 8.1 | −0.31 | 0.2 | 80% |
| Alexander Vasiliou | Bowdoin College | 2.61 | 2.16 | 10–5 | 11.3 | −0.45 | 0.5 | 87% |
| Claire Havig | Bowdoin College | 2.07 | 1.62 | 10–5 | 11.3 | −0.45 | 0.5 | 87% |
| Alden Grimes | Bowdoin College | 2.62 | 2.17 | 10–5 | 11.3 | −0.45 | 0.5 | 87% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | Jumbos | Catamounts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | 4–2 | ✕ | ✕ | W | L |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 4–2 | ✕ | ✕ | W | L |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 1–2 | W | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | Jumbos | Catamounts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | 4–2 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 4–2 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 2–1 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | Jumbos | Catamounts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | 3–3 | ✕ | ✕ | W | L |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 3–3 | ✕ | ✕ | W | L |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | L |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 2–1 | W | W | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | Jumbos | Catamounts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | 5–1 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 5–1 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 0–3 | L | L | ✕ | L |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 1–2 | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | Jumbos | Catamounts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 | 3–3 | ✕ | ✕ | L | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 | 3–3 | ✕ | ✕ | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 3–0 | W | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Polar Bears 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Polar Bears 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Polar Bears 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-3-6 |
| 5 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Polar Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Polar Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Polar Bears 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Polar Bears 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Polar Bears 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Polar Bears 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Polar Bears 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Polar Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Jumbos | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 15 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Polar Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Polar Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Polar Bears 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Polar Bears 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Polar Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Polar Bears 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Polar Bears 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Polar Bears 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Polar Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Polar Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Catamounts | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Polar Bears 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Polar Bears 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears 1 | 1-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears 1 | Alden Grimes '21 Alexander Vasiliou '18 Claire Havig '21 |
Julia Adams '21 Kevin Elk '20 Martinique Ogle '18 |
|
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears 2 | Louis Frumer '18 Michael Kann '19 Rowan Byrne '21 |
Eliza Jevon '21 Isabelle Austin-Green '19 Kelsey Slack '21 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos | Aaron Klein '18 Bram Brakman '21 Julien Guiot '18 |
Kahler Newsham '19 Sarah Bunney '19 Emma Clutterbuck '20 |
|
University of Vermont | Catamounts | Cameron Nash '21 Thomas Harden '20 Vincent Yannelli '19 |
Samuel Magill-Dohan '18 Helen Field '21 Isabella Arnaboldi '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
