Tufts University '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 19.22 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.097 rating points from 97 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.89 (fleet 2.61) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–16 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 17–12 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (38 matches) the record is 22–16 against 20.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.58 | 3.02 | 10–4 | 8.8 | +0.44 | 0.4 | 34% |
| 2018-03-31 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | skipper | 2.54 | 2.23 | 7–8 | 8.1 | −0.31 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2016-10-16 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.47 | 3.72 | 5–4 | 3.4 | +1.25 | 1.5 | 15% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Alumni Regatta 2023-420s | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.0 | 2.33 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Baby 'Bos - Tufts Alumni Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.0 | 4.12 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.3 | 3.13 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 3.5 | 3.99 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Icebreaker Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.8 | 2.48 |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Greater NY Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.6 | 2.37 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 13 | 14.9 | 2.64 |
| Southern 5 | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.6 | 2.69 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.8 | 3.24 |
| Mt. Hope Bay | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.1 | 2.67 |
| Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.8 | 3.24 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.0 | 4.93 |
| The Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 2.0 | 4.99 |
| Central | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.8 | 3.43 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 1.5 | 4.93 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.3 | 2.95 |
| Southern 5 | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.9 | -0.23 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 4.2 | 2.94 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.7 | 2.93 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.4 | 3.30 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 4 | 8.5 | — |
| Lark Invitational | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.9 | 2.61 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.7 | 4.43 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| FJ Invitational | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.8 | 3.54 |
| 34th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Crew | A | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 7 | Crew | B | 8 | 5.9 | — |
| O'Toole | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.5 | 4.39 |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | B | 14 | 7.3 | — |
| Admiral Alymers | Crew | A | 8 | 3.0 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 7 | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.2 | 0.49 |
| Sacred Heart Invitational | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.4 | 3.22 |
| Professor No Ringer | Skipper | B | 3 | 2.0 | 1.42 |
| Mystic Lake Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.3 | 2.83 |
| Mt. Hope Bay/Southern 1 | Crew | B | 10 | 6.4 | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.0 | 1.94 |
| Dark of Night | Crew | A | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| Central 3 | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.2 | 0.68 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | B | 5 | 9.8 | — |
| Central Series 3 | Crew | A | 2 | 7.0 | — |
| Admiral Alymers | Crew | A | 11 | 6.2 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | B | 13 | 7.7 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Lark Invitational Central Series #1 | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.2 | — |
| Ross Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 3 | 1.7 | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Crew | A | 5 | 9.6 | — |
| Mystic Lake Central Series Four | Crew | A | 8 | 10.6 | — |
| Midweek Fly Regatta #1 | Crew | A | 5 | 8.8 | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.2 | 1.60 |
| Firefly/ FJ Invitational Regatta | Crew | B | 2 | 7.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
