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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 15 25 40
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 14 34 48
3 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 29 20 49
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 33 16 49
5 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 38 22 60
6 Boston University Boston University Terriers 32 30 62
7 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 47 26 73
8 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 32 48 80
9 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 51 50 101
10 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 60 61 121
11 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 49 78 127
12 Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 69 64 133
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 5 3 2 1 2 14 Sam Alexander '18
Olivia Lord '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 2 1 2 1 8 1 15 Jackson Mccoy '19
Kahler Newsham '19
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 6 4 4 4 6 5 29 Dylan Farrell '18
Christine Gosioco '19
Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 2 6 6 7 8 32 Robby Gearon '19
Danielle Stonely '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 4 7 1 9 4 7 32 John Duncan '19
Andrew Savage '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 10 8 5 5 2 3 33 Bobby Mclaughlin '17
Lucy Zwigard '18
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 5 OCS 8 3 5 4 38 Mary Paz '17
Sydney Avitia-Jacques '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 9 6 10 7 3 12 47 Emma Haley '19
Bubakar Bah '19
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 8 3 11 8 9 10 49 Dylan Whitcraft '19
Sarah Sigman '19
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 7 9 7 11 11 6 51 Maddy Crowley '16
Morgan Sadler '18
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 12 10 9 10 10 9 60 Henry Bushnell '17
Caroline King '18
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 11 11 12 12 12 11 69 Kiley Burke '17
Mae Harrington '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 1 4 4 5 1 1 16 Samuel Shea '19
Lucy Robison '18
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2 3 2 4 2 7 20 Nicholas Karnovsky '19
Ariana Gross '18
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4 2 3 6 4 3 22 Jack Fullerton '19
Isabelle Austin-Green '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 3 1 1 9 6 5 25 Logan Russell '19
Ashley Smith '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 5 6 6 2 5 2 26 Julien Guiot '18
Taylor Fasolo '18
Boston University Boston University Terriers 7 8 5 1 3 6 30 Reed Lorimer '18
Andrew Stoycos '18
Brown University Brown University Bears 6 7 7 3 7 4 34 Gabriel Elstrodt '19
Megha Malpani '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 8 5 9 7 10 9 48 Nicholas Giacobbe '19
Joshua Pfosi '16
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 9 9 8 8 8 8 50 Malich Altman '19
Emilie Macfie '17
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 11 10 10 11 9 10 61 Kevin Winnie '16
Monika Iwasaki '17
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 10 11 11 10 11 11 64 Jamie Joyce '16
Marycatherine Dunne '16
Bates College Bates College Bobcats DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 78 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats667799
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers77991111
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears9911111212
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears111112121515
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints2222232366
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson121215151616
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds151516161818
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1161618181919
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2181819192020
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3191920202222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 4202022222323
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals23236677

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats667799
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers77991111
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears9911111212
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears111112121515
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints2222232366
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson121215151616
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds151516161818
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1161618181919
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2181819192020
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3191920202222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 4202022222323
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals23236677

Conditions — 10/04/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1029.5 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.8 kn
avg  ·  max 14.0 kn
Gusts to 28.4 kn
From NE (54°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine3.5 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1029.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 15 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.24 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →