Mystic Lake Team Race

HostTufts
Date04/07/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatLark
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Tufts University	Jumbos 1	10–4
2	Tufts University	Jumbos 2	9–5
3	University of Rhode Island	Rams	8–6
4	Roger Williams University	Hawks	8–6
5	Boston University	Terriers	7–7
6	Brown University	Bears	7–7
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	5–7
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	5–7
9	Northeastern University	Huskies	4–8
10	Harvard University	Crimson	3–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 11,154 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 44 of 67 matches (66%) with a log-loss of 0.624 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.10 ± 0.32: a typical event, more orderly than 32% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Tufts University Jumbos 1	2	7.89 school +0.16, home +0.41	Samuel Shea / Juliana Testa 2.56 Julien Guiot / Emma Clutterbuck 2.58 Aaron Klein / Kahler Newsham 2.13	63%	10–4 (71%)	+1.2
2	Tufts University Jumbos 2	6	7.41 school +0.16, home +0.41	Bram Brakman / Maria Brush 2.31 Austen Freda / Duke Saunders 2.36 Wells Drayton / Marisa Permatteo 2.10	49%	9–5 (64%)	+2.1
3	University of Rhode Island Rams	1	8.18 school −0.33	Luke Ingalls / Ellis Havelock 2.64 Dakota Northrup / Lauren Richards 3.15 Matthew Gibbs / Edward Gary 2.67	69%	8–6 (57%)	−1.7
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	7.81 school +0.23	Ed Lebens / Kylie Freitas 2.21 Spencer Cartwright / Emily Gildea 2.70 6–5 Preston Duclos / Rachel Holick 2.60 5–4 Peter Neal / Rachel Holick 2.71 3–2 Peter Neal / Emily Gildea 2.63 2–1	61%	8–6 (57%)	−0.6
5	Boston University Terriers	4	7.79 school −0.18	Javier De Urdanibia Panos / Megan Blagden Kyle Dochoda / Emily Walker 2.88 Casey Cabot / Shannon Macdonald 2.45	61%	8–7 (53%)	−1.1
6	Brown University Bears	7	7.30 school +0.14	Franco Bilik / Lauren Haller 2.68 6–6 Nathan Housberg / Rachel Foster 2.20 6–3 Sophie Hibben / Jack Papetti 2.25 5–4 John Mastrandrea / Rachel Foster 2.28 1–4 John Mastrandrea / Jack Papetti 2.21 2–3 Sophie Hibben / Lauren Haller 2.36 1–1	47%	7–7 (50%)	+0.5
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8	6.58	Stephen Duncan / Fiona Mckellar 2.70 James Peraire-Bueno / Lynn Liu 1.94 Ryan Hennessey / Phoebe Piercy	40%	5–7 (42%)	+0.2
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5	6.96 school −0.15	Gage Schoenherr / Walter Gnann 2.63 Richie Gordon / Halee Lewis Jesse Mcknight / Erin Morgan 2.25	50%	5–7 (42%)	−1.0
9	Northeastern University Huskies	10	6.04	Kyle Riggs / Jon Ewing 2.27 Ben Palmer / Connor O'Neill Zachary Bresnick / Kelley Phippen 1.93	27%	4–9 (31%)	+0.5
10	Harvard University Crimson	9	6.06	Andrew Puopolo / Iulianna Taritsa 2.24 Owen Schafer / Emily Malpass 1.98 Catherine Kerner / Emma Jakobson 1.73	27%	3–9 (25%)	−0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Tufts University Jumbos 2	7.41	8.08	9–5	6.9	+0.67	1.0	18%
1	Tufts University Jumbos 1	7.89	8.32	10–4	8.8	+0.44	0.4	34%
9	Northeastern University Huskies	6.04	6.27	4–9	3.4	+0.23	0.1	47%
6	Brown University Bears	7.30	7.45	7–7	6.5	+0.15	0.1	50%
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6.58	6.67	5–7	4.8	+0.09	0.0	56%
10	Harvard University Crimson	6.06	5.92	3–9	3.3	−0.14	0.0	69%
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	7.81	7.62	8–6	8.6	−0.19	0.1	73%
5	Boston University Terriers	7.79	7.45	8–7	9.1	−0.34	0.3	82%
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6.96	6.59	5–7	5.9	−0.37	0.3	82%
3	University of Rhode Island Rams	8.18	7.63	8–6	9.7	−0.55	0.7	90%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Nathan Housberg	Brown University	2.20	3.22	6–3	4.1	+1.02	1.4	14%
Bram Brakman	Tufts University	2.31	2.98	9–5	6.9	+0.67	1.0	18%
Austen Freda	Tufts University	2.36	3.03	9–5	6.9	+0.67	1.0	18%
Samuel Shea	Tufts University	2.56	3.00	10–4	8.8	+0.44	0.4	34%
Julien Guiot	Tufts University	2.58	3.02	10–4	8.8	+0.44	0.4	34%
Aaron Klein	Tufts University	2.13	2.57	10–4	8.8	+0.44	0.4	34%
Sophie Hibben	Brown University	2.25	2.64	6–5	5.0	+0.39	0.3	38%
Kyle Riggs	Northeastern University	2.27	2.49	4–9	3.4	+0.23	0.1	47%
Zachary Bresnick	Northeastern University	1.93	2.16	4–9	3.4	+0.23	0.1	47%
James Peraire-Bueno	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	1.94	2.02	5–7	4.8	+0.09	0.0	56%
Franco Bilik	Brown University	2.68	2.71	6–6	5.9	+0.03	0.0	60%
Andrew Puopolo	Harvard University	2.24	2.10	3–9	3.3	−0.14	0.0	69%
Catherine Kerner	Harvard University	1.73	1.59	3–9	3.3	−0.14	0.0	69%
Ed Lebens	Roger Williams University	2.21	2.03	8–6	8.6	−0.19	0.1	73%
Spencer Cartwright	Roger Williams University	2.70	2.36	6–5	6.8	−0.34	0.2	81%
Javier De Urdanibia Panos	Boston University	2.39	2.05	8–7	9.1	−0.34	0.3	82%
Gage Schoenherr	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.63	2.26	5–7	5.9	−0.37	0.3	82%
Matthew Gibbs	University of Rhode Island	2.67	2.13	8–6	9.7	−0.55	0.7	90%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Northeastern University Huskies	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	40%	upset
1	2	Roger Williams University Hawks	Harvard University Crimson	87%
1	3	Tufts University Jumbos 1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	76%
1	4	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Boston University Terriers	45%	upset
1	5	Brown University Bears	University of Rhode Island Rams	30%	upset
1	6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Harvard University Crimson	61%
1	7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	Northeastern University Huskies	69%
1	8	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston University Terriers	56%
1	9	University of Rhode Island Rams	Tufts University Jumbos 1	57%
1	10	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Brown University Bears	50%	upset
1	11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	Harvard University Crimson	70%
1	12	Boston University Terriers	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	77%
1	13	University of Rhode Island Rams	Northeastern University Huskies	90%
1	14	Roger Williams University Hawks	Tufts University Jumbos 2	62%
1	15	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Brown University Bears	65%
1	16	Boston University Terriers	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	69%
1	17	University of Rhode Island Rams	Harvard University Crimson	89%
1	18	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	70%
1	19	Northeastern University Huskies	Tufts University Jumbos 1	14%	upset
1	20	Roger Williams University Hawks	Brown University Bears	70%
1	21	University of Rhode Island Rams	Boston University Terriers	60%
1	22	Tufts University Jumbos 2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	61%
1	23	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Harvard University Crimson	86%
1	24	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Roger Williams University Hawks	23%	upset
1	25	Brown University Bears	Northeastern University Huskies	78%
1	26	University of Rhode Island Rams	Tufts University Jumbos 2	68%
1	27	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Boston University Terriers	53%
1	28	Roger Williams University Hawks	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	69%
1	29	Northeastern University Huskies	Harvard University Crimson	50%	upset
1	30	Brown University Bears	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	69%
1	31	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Tufts University Jumbos 2	62%
1	32	University of Rhode Island Rams	Roger Williams University Hawks	60%
1	33	Boston University Terriers	Northeastern University Huskies	85%
1	34	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	41%	upset
1	35	Brown University Bears	Harvard University Crimson	77%
1	36	Roger Williams University Hawks	Tufts University Jumbos 1	46%	upset
1	37	Northeastern University Huskies	Tufts University Jumbos 2	20%	upset
1	38	University of Rhode Island Rams	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	82%
1	39	Harvard University Crimson	Boston University Terriers	15%	upset
1	40	Brown University Bears	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	58%
1	41	Roger Williams University Hawks	Northeastern University Huskies	84%
1	42	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	78%
1	43	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Harvard University Crimson	79%
1	44	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	University of Rhode Island Rams	24%	upset
1	45	Boston University Terriers	Brown University Bears	60%
1	46	Boston University Terriers	Northeastern University Huskies	85%
4	62	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Northeastern University Huskies	64%
4	63	Harvard University Crimson	Northeastern University Huskies	50%
4	64	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	41%	upset
4	65	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	Harvard University Crimson	73%
4	66	Harvard University Crimson	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	36%	upset
4	67	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	Northeastern University Huskies	73%
6	47	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Tufts University Jumbos 1	39%	upset
6	48	Brown University Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks	31%	upset
6	49	Boston University Terriers	University of Rhode Island Rams	42%	upset
6	50	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Roger Williams University Hawks	55%
6	51	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Boston University Terriers	39%	upset
6	52	Brown University Bears	University of Rhode Island Rams	30%	upset
6	53	Boston University Terriers	Roger Williams University Hawks	49%	upset
6	54	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Brown University Bears	64%
6	55	University of Rhode Island Rams	Tufts University Jumbos 2	68%
6	56	Boston University Terriers	Brown University Bears	61%
6	57	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Roger Williams University Hawks	39%	upset
6	58	Tufts University Jumbos 1	University of Rhode Island Rams	43%	upset
6	59	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Brown University Bears	50%
6	60	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Boston University Terriers	50%
6	61	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Rhode Island Rams	40%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	1	2	Rams	Hawks	Terriers	Bears	Engineers	Bears	Huskies	Crimson
Tufts University Jumbos 1	11–7	✕	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos 2	11–7	✕	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	L	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	7–2	W	W	✕	W	W	L	W	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–2	W	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	5–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L
Brown University Bears	5–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–6	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	4–6	W	W	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Harvard University Crimson	1–8	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Engineers	Bears	Huskies	Crimson
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–1	✕	W	W	L
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2–1	L	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	0–3	L	L	✕	L
Harvard University Crimson	2–1	W	L	W	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	1	2	Rams	Hawks	Terriers	Bears
Tufts University Jumbos 1	8–2	✕	✕	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos 2	8–2	✕	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	1–4	L	L	✕	L	L	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–4	L	L	W	✕	L	L
Boston University Terriers	3–2	L	L	W	W	✕	W
Brown University Bears	2–3	L	L	W	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Huskies	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
2	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
3	Jumbos 1	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
4	Jumbos 2	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
5	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
6	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
7	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
8	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
9	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos 1	4-5-6
10	Jumbos 2	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
11	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
12	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
13	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
14	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos 2	2-4-6
15	Jumbos 1	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
16	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
17	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
18	Jumbos 2	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
19	Huskies	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos 1	2-4-5
20	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
21	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
22	Jumbos 2	1-2-3 DSQ	def.	Bears	4-5-6
23	Jumbos 1	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
24	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
25	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
26	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos 2	3-5-6
27	Jumbos 1	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
28	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
29	Huskies	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
30	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
31	Jumbos 1	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos 2	3-4-5
32	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
33	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
34	Engineers	3-4-6	def.	Bears	1-2-5 DSQ
35	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
36	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos 1	1-5-6
37	Huskies	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos 2	2-4-5
38	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
39	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
40	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
41	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
42	Jumbos 1	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
43	Jumbos 2	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
44	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
45	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
46	Terriers	1-3-5	def.	Huskies	2-4-6
62	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
63	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
64	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
65	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
66	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
67	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
47	Jumbos 2	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos 1	1-4-6
48	Bears	2-4-5	def.	Hawks	1-3-6 DSQ
49	Terriers	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
50	Jumbos 1	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
51	Jumbos 2	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
52	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
53	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
54	Jumbos 1	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
55	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos 2	2-3-6
56	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
57	Jumbos 2	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
58	Jumbos 1	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
59	Jumbos 2	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
60	Jumbos 1	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
61	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	Aaron Klein '18 Julien Guiot '18 Samuel Shea '19	Kahler Newsham '19 Emma Clutterbuck '20 Juliana Testa '21
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	Austen Freda '21 Bram Brakman '21 Wells Drayton '21	Duke Saunders '20 Maria Brush '21 Marisa Permatteo '19
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Dakota Northrup '19 Luke Ingalls '21 Matthew Gibbs '17	Lauren Richards '19 Ellis Havelock '18 Edward Gary '22
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Ed Lebens '19 Peter Neal '20 Preston Duclos '19 Spencer Cartwright '22	Kylie Freitas '20 Emily Gildea '21 Rachel Holick '22
Boston University	Terriers	Casey Cabot '21 Javier De Urdanibia Panos '21 Kyle Dochoda '21	Shannon Macdonald '21 Megan Blagden '20 Emily Walker '19
Brown University	Bears	Franco Bilik '18 John Mastrandrea '20 Nathan Housberg '19 Sophie Hibben '19	Lauren Haller '18 Rachel Foster '20 Jack Papetti '21
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	James Peraire-Bueno '19 Ryan Hennessey '21 Stephen Duncan '20	Lynn Liu '20 Phoebe Piercy '20 Fiona Mckellar '20
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Gage Schoenherr '21 Jesse Mcknight '21 Richie Gordon '21	Walter Gnann '21 Erin Morgan '18 Halee Lewis '21
Northeastern University	Huskies	Ben Palmer '22 Kyle Riggs '21 Zachary Bresnick '21	Connor O'Neill '19 Jon Ewing '21 Kelley Phippen '22
Harvard University	Crimson	Andrew Puopolo '19 Catherine Kerner '20 Owen Schafer '21	Iulianna Taritsa '20 Emma Jakobson '21 Emily Malpass '21

Conditions — 04/07/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 45% · Pressure 1008.9 hPa

Temperature

43°F

↑ 47°F ↓ 36°F

Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.7 kn

avg · max 11.4 kn

Gusts to 23.1 kn

From W (280°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover65% Sunshine8.9 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1008.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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