Harvard University '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.75 (fleet 2.45) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–40 (22%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 7–13 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 4–17 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 0–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (51 matches) the record is 11–40 against 19.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−8.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | skipper | 2.09 | 0.76 | 7–13 | 11.4 | −1.33 | 4.2 | >99% |
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 1.73 | 1.59 | 3–9 | 3.3 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2018-03-04 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.89 | 0.12 | 1–8 | 3.3 | −1.77 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2017-03-26 | BU Team Race | skipper | 1.44 | -1.56 | 0–10 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Invitational Women's | Skipper | TR | 20 | 35% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.0 | 2.81 |
| Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.8 | 2.99 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.5 | 2.92 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.7 | 1.41 |
| Central Series | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.0 | 2.76 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.5 | 1.47 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.4 | 1.80 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.2 | 1.56 |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.2 | 1.71 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 6.6 | — |
| FJ Invitational | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.0 | 1.71 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 8 | 13.9 | 0.70 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.9 | 1.66 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
