Boston University '19
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 13.78 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.079 rating points from 296 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.08 (fleet 0.10) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 51–42 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 3 | — | 10–9 |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | — | 25–10 |
| Fall 2017 | 3 | — | 6–9 |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | — | 10–14 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (91 matches) the record is 50–41 against 52.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 15 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-30 | Jumbo Team Race | crew | 2.86 | 0.67 | 2–5 | 4.6 | −2.19 | 4.0 | >99% |
| 2019-03-16 | Southern New England Team Race | crew | 3.33 | 4.21 | 7–3 | 5.5 | +0.88 | 0.9 | 22% |
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | crew | 2.88 | 2.54 | 8–7 | 9.1 | −0.34 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2018-03-24 | BU Team Race | crew | 2.90 | 2.12 | 12–3 | 13.4 | −0.77 | 0.8 | 93% |
| 2018-03-17 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | crew | 2.89 | 5.89 | 5–0 | 2.4 | ≥+3.00 | 5.0 | 2% |
| 2017-11-04 | The Mike Horn Trophy | crew | 3.02 | 3.65 | 3–1 | 2.6 | +0.63 | 0.2 | 55% |
| 2017-10-15 | Franklin Lane Trophy | crew | 3.01 | 2.68 | 2–4 | 2.4 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2017-10-14 | Norman Reid Team Race | crew | 3.09 | 0.53 | 1–4 | 2.8 | −2.56 | 2.8 | >99% |
| 2017-03-26 | BU Team Race | crew | 2.73 | 3.52 | 7–3 | 5.8 | +0.79 | 0.7 | 27% |
| 2017-03-18 | Southern New England Team Race | crew | 2.54 | 1.93 | 3–11 | 4.0 | −0.62 | 0.4 | 87% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | C | 13 | 8.1 | — |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 14.2 | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| NEISA Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 11 | 9% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 14.2 | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Regis Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 4.8 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 13 | 4.4 | — |
| Moody Trophy | Crew | B | 3 | 3.3 | — |
| Hood Trophy | Crew | B | 3 | 10.7 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy Division 1 | Crew | A | 16 | 5.4 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | C | 11 | 8.2 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 7.3 | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Crew | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Crew | B | 8 | 2.8 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | B | 11 | 3.0 | — |
| BU Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 5.7 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 8.5 | — |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Crew | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Nicholas J Barnett Trophy | Crew | A | 15 | 7.1 | — |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Crew | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | B | 7 | 5.0 | — |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Crew | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern New England Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Crew | B | 13 | 9.0 | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Crew | B | 8 | 2.8 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | A | 6 | 7.3 | — |
| BU Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Crew | A | 2 | 8.0 | — |
| Salt Pond Invite | Crew | A | 5 | 6.4 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 9 | 9.1 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | B | 8 | 10.5 | — |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Crew | A | 18 | 6.0 | — |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Crew | C | 17 | 12.1 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 15.2 | — |
| O'Toole | Crew | B | 6 | 2.3 | — |
| NEISA Central 1 | Crew | A | 8 | 1.6 | — |
| Midweek Firefly Regatta | Crew | A | 5 | 6.6 | — |
| Eckerd Interconference | Crew | B | 12 | 5.9 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 9.2 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 5 | Crew | A | 10 | 5.8 | — |
| Salt Pond Invite | Crew | A | 6 | 4.7 | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 16.2 | -0.21 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 7.2 | — |
| Central Series6 | Crew | A | 3 | 8.0 | — |
| Central Series 2 | Crew | A | 5 | 7.8 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
