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Nicholas Barnett Trophy

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 217
2 Boston University Boston University Terriers 240
3 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 249
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 257
5 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 302
6 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 334
7 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 388
8 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 491
9 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 602
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT Sailors
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson B 4 4 5 5 8 2 2 13 6 5 2 10 10 10 2 9 6 1 104 Nicholas Karnovsky '19
Alejandra Resendiz '19
Boston University Boston University Terriers A 1 12 7 10 4 10 4 11 4 3 10 5 9 3 5 4 2 4 108 Alex Moreno '19
Emily Walker '19
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson A 6 1 2 3 5 7 9 6 2 4 17 12 4 4 6 7 7 11 113 Jackson Wagner '19
Divya Arya '19
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams A 8 2 1 1 11 14 5 4 8 14 6 1 5 1 11 5 12 6 115 Matthew Gibbs '17
Ryan Geib '19
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears B 2 14 3 2 9 4 13 2 3 1 8 13 7 14 7 14 1 2 119 Alexander Vasiliou '18
Jake Griffin '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 5 9 6 6 2 3 8 1 10 12 14 11 3 2 12 13 5 5 127 Alexander Tong '17
Lara Dienemann '18
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears A 3 5 9 8 1 1 14 7 17 9 9 7 1 7 4 11 8 9 130 Matthew Lyons '17 [1-9, 11-18]
Christian Filter '20 [10]
Caitlin Tardio '19 [1-10]
Marie Bergsund '20 [11-18]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies A 7 6 13 14 3 11 3 5 1 6 13 8 6 11 9 3 4 7 130 Jackson Hamilton '19
Romain Astie '20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 11 3 4 7 10 15 10 3 7 11 5 2 13 9 1 1 10 8 130 Jack Bitney '19
Natalie Danziger '17
Boston University Boston University Terriers B 14 13 15 4 6 8 15 12 9 7 1 9 2 6 3 2 3 3 132 Collin Alexander '20
Andrew Reed '18
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies B 13 8 11 9 12 12 1 15 5 10 11 4 12 8 8 6 15 12 172 John Wehner '18
Katherine Alfond '19
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers B 12 16 8 11 7 5 7 10 11 15 7 3 8 5 10 15 14 13 177 Alexander Bowen '20 [1-4]
Jeffrey Adam '18 [5-18]
Catherine Haines '19 [1-4]
Sergio Gratta '18 [5-18]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers A 9 10 10 15 14 9 11 8 15 8 12 14 15 12 14 12 9 14 211 Frank Reeg '19 [1-18]
Sergio Gratta '18 [1-4]
Maya Stephani '20 [5-18]
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers A 17 11 12 18 13 6 6 9 13 2 4 6 11 15 16 16 DNS DNS 213 Ben Brown '18
Casey Astiz '19
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams B 10 7 14 12 17 16 12 14 12 16 3 15 14 13 13 10 11 10 219 Karel Mailloux-Kuz '18
Ian Nannig '19
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers B 16 17 16 16 15 17 16 16 14 13 16 16 17 18 18 8 13 16 278 Jade Forsberg '17
Sarah Yang '19
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies A 15 15 18 17 16 13 17 17 16 17 15 17 16 16 15 17 16 15 288 Martin Hooker '18
Jessica Imbro '18
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies B 18 18 17 13 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 17 18 17 17 314 Danielle Elson '19
Catherine Nowakowski '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A17A18A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers112233445566778899
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears22111818171716161515141413131212
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies88776655443322111818
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson3344556677889910101111
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers4433221118181717161615151414
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers55667788991010111112121313
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies665544332211181817171616
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams9910101111121213131414151516161717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos778899101011111212131314141515

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B17B18B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers10109988776655443322
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears1111121213131414151516161717181811
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies1717181811223344556677
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson121211111010998877665544
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers131314141515161617171818112233
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers1414131312121111101099887766
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies15151616171718181122334455
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams181817171616151514141313121211111010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos16161515141413131212111110109988

Conditions — 10/08/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1019.1 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 20.6 kn
From S (180°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine7.3 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1019.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 10 kn · N 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Bowdoin: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.07 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.20 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bowdoin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Bowdoin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →