Massachusetts Maritime Academy '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.76 (fleet 2.43) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–12 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 4–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 4–12 against 5.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-12 | Arctic Circle Team Race | skipper | 1.68 | 1.18 | 4–12 | 5.0 | −0.49 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 10.4 | 2.56 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.3 | 0.32 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.3 | 1.90 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.8 | 2.47 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 16.4 | 0.64 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.5 | 2.19 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.0 | 2.77 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.8 | 2.36 |
| NE Dinghy Tournament | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.9 | 2.99 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.2 | 2.38 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 4 | 16.8 | 0.71 |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.7 | 1.28 |
| Arctic Circle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 18 | 15.4 | 2.32 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.7 | 1.46 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 12.7 | 2.16 |
| NE Fall Tournament | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.4 | 2.24 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 16.0 | 1.11 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.0 | 1.89 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 10.3 | 1.91 |
| 4th Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.1 | 2.87 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 13.6 | 1.38 |
| Southern Series 1 | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.8 | 1.67 |
| Southern 7 on Salt Pond | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.3 | -0.49 |
| Priddy Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.5 | 0.99 |
| New England Dinghy Tournament | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.2 | 1.88 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.6 | 1.91 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| PC Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.9 | 0.55 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.5 | 1.66 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 11.5 | 1.11 |
| Commonwealth Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.9 | 1.79 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.2 | 1.42 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 13.2 | 1.66 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
