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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 18 27 45
2 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 32 27 59
3 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 40 25 65
4 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 32 58 90
5 Brown University Brown University Bears 45 62 107
6 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 69 42 111
7 Providence College Providence College Friars 67 76 143
8 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 75 75 150
9 Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 90 84 174
10 Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers 95 81 176
11 Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners 99 108 207
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 1 1 1 2 2 4 3 1 1 18 Dylan Finneran '15
Sulli Edwards '17
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 3 8 5 1 1 2 4 3 4 32 Rebecca Quirke '17 [1-6]
Quinn Andersen '18 [7-10]
Serena Cipullo '17 [1-6]
Kira Kirk '18 [7-10]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 2 6 2 3 5 1 2 2 5 32 John Wehner '18
Laura Tschiegg '17
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 5 4 2 4 5 3 6 1 4 6 40 Shannon Killian '16
Kathryn Travers '16
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 7 3 3 6 6 3 6 5 3 45 Macklin Fluehr '17
Emily Haynes-Simmons '18
Providence College Providence College Friars 11 8 9 7 9 4 5 5 7 2 67 Ian Maccini '18 [1-6]
Lou Magarelli '16 [7-10]
Chloe Kelleher '18 [1-6]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 6 5 7 8 7 8 8 7 6 7 69 Jeffrey Adam '18
Jamie Hayes '18
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 8 6 5 9 4 9 7 10 8 9 75 Kelsey Delosh '17 [1-10]
Courtney Grippin '17 [1-4]
Alix Blair '18 [5-10]
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 9 10 4 6 8 10 10 11 11 11 90 Connor Wallace '16 [1-6]
Kelsey Laforest '17 [7-10]
Brian Daley '19 [1-6]
Lillian Vincens '19 [7-10]
Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers 7 DNS 11 10 10 7 9 9 10 10 95 Brian Reilly '16 [1-6]
William Herlihy '15 [7-10]
Shannon Feury '17 [1-6]
Kristen Lahaise '17 [7-10]
Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners 10 9 10 DNF 11 11 11 8 9 8 99 No Show
Deborah Lee '15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 3 5 2 2 5 3 1 1 1 2 25 Sean Beaulieu '18
Catherine Corssen '15
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 9 1 1 3 1 2 4 4 1 27 Ellis Tonissi '15 [1-6]
Luke Andersen '18 [7-10]
Isabelle Pieper '18 [1-6]
Olivia Liebnick '16 [7-8]
Matthew Lau-Hansen '17 [9-10]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 1 3 3 1 2 3 2 6 4 27 Alexander Paggi '18 [1-6]
Matthew Orgill '16 [7-10]
Daria Mckenna '18 [1-6]
Erin Morgan '18 [7-10]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 4 6 4 4 2 6 4 3 3 6 42 George Luber '17
John Willis '18
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 6 2 10 7 4 4 5 8 7 5 58 Donal Ryan '19
Alexandra Zhmakina '16
Brown University Brown University Bears 8 3 8 6 10 10 7 5 2 3 62 Emma Davis '17
Lauren Haller '18
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 9 8 5 9 7 9 6 7 8 7 75 Kelsey Martins '16 [1-5]
Hanna Desilets '17 [6-10]
Emily Doiron '15 [1-2]
Janelle Hall '15 [3-10]
Providence College Providence College Friars DNF DNS 6 5 6 7 9 6 5 8 76 John Coulter '16 [1-10]
Lydia Grasberger '18 [1-6]
Aynslie D'Avanzo '18 [7-10]
Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Pioneers 5 7 9 10 8 5 10 9 9 9 81 David Tampellini '17 [1-6]
Colby Jennings '15 [7-10]
Andrew Dill '17 [1-6]
Noelle Kelly '17 [7-10]
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 7 4 7 8 9 8 11 10 10 10 84 Eric Sowell '16 [1-6]
Katherine Fox '16 [7-10]
Katherine Fox '16 [1-6]
Sydney Delfico '17 [7-10]
Mitchell College Mitchell College Mariners 10 10 11 11 11 11 8 DNF DNS DNS 108 Jared Lafosse-Baker '14
Orson Sinclair '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears1133557799
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears101011335577
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels224466881010
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags335577991111
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers446688101011
Mitchell CollegeMitchell College Mariners557799111122
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies668810101133
Providence CollegeProvidence College Friars779911112244
Sacred Heart UniversitySacred Heart University Pioneers881010113355
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks991111224466
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs111122446688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears224466881010
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears111122446688
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels335577991111
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags446688101011
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers557799111122
Mitchell CollegeMitchell College Mariners668810101133
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies779911112244
Providence CollegeProvidence College Friars881010113355
Sacred Heart UniversitySacred Heart University Pioneers991111224466
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks101011335577
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs1133557799
School / Team SkipperCrew
Brown University Brown University Macklin Fluehr '17 Emily Haynes-Simmons '18
Bears Emma Davis '17 Lauren Haller '18
Connecticut College Connecticut College Rebecca Quirke '17 [1-6]
Quinn Andersen '18 [7-10]		 Serena Cipullo '17 [1-6]
Kira Kirk '18 [7-10]
Camels Ellis Tonissi '15 [1-6]
Luke Andersen '18 [7-10]		 Isabelle Pieper '18 [1-6]
Olivia Liebnick '16 [7-8]
Matthew Lau-Hansen '17 [9-10]
Fairfield University Fairfield University Connor Wallace '16 [1-6]
Kelsey Laforest '17 [7-10]		 Brian Daley '19 [1-6]
Lillian Vincens '19 [7-10]
Stags Eric Sowell '16 [1-6]
Katherine Fox '16 [7-10]		 Katherine Fox '16 [1-6]
Sydney Delfico '17 [7-10]
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Jeffrey Adam '18 Jamie Hayes '18
Buccaneers George Luber '17 John Willis '18
Mitchell College Mitchell College No Show Deborah Lee '15
Mariners Jared Lafosse-Baker '14 Orson Sinclair '17
Northeastern University Northeastern University John Wehner '18 Laura Tschiegg '17
Huskies Donal Ryan '19 Alexandra Zhmakina '16
Providence College Providence College Ian Maccini '18 [1-6]
Lou Magarelli '16 [7-10]		 Chloe Kelleher '18 [1-6]
Friars John Coulter '16 [1-10] Lydia Grasberger '18 [1-6]
Aynslie D'Avanzo '18 [7-10]
Sacred Heart University Sacred Heart University Brian Reilly '16 [1-6]
William Herlihy '15 [7-10]		 Shannon Feury '17 [1-6]
Kristen Lahaise '17 [7-10]
Pioneers David Tampellini '17 [1-6]
Colby Jennings '15 [7-10]		 Andrew Dill '17 [1-6]
Noelle Kelly '17 [7-10]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Shannon Killian '16 Kathryn Travers '16
Seahawks Sean Beaulieu '18 Catherine Corssen '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Dylan Finneran '15 Sulli Edwards '17
Bears Alexander Paggi '18 [1-6]
Matthew Orgill '16 [7-10]		 Daria Mckenna '18 [1-6]
Erin Morgan '18 [7-10]
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Kelsey Delosh '17 [1-10] Courtney Grippin '17 [1-4]
Alix Blair '18 [5-10]
Corsairs Kelsey Martins '16 [1-5]
Hanna Desilets '17 [6-10]		 Emily Doiron '15 [1-2]
Janelle Hall '15 [3-10]

Conditions — 10/18/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1000.9 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 24.9 kn
From SW (219°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1000.9 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 13 kn · NW 12 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Providence: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Providence by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Providence, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →