U. S. Coast Guard Academy '15
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.01 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 10 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.82 (fleet 2.51) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 54–74 (42%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 11–22 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 6–5 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 18–28 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 19–19 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (102 matches) the record is 41–61 against 33.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+7.1). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 21 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 2.80 | 2.87 | 3–8 | 2.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2015-04-04 | Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.68 | -0.32 | 0–8 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.7 | >99% |
| 2015-03-14 | John Jackson Team Race | skipper | 2.50 | 2.43 | 8–6 | 8.2 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.48 | 3.46 | 6–5 | 4.2 | +0.98 | 1.4 | 14% |
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 2.56 | 3.23 | 3–8 | 1.8 | +0.67 | 0.6 | 27% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.45 | 3.24 | 14–7 | 10.6 | +0.79 | 1.9 | 8% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 2.58 | -0.42 | 0–9 | 2.5 | ≤−3.00 | 4.4 | >99% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 2.63 | 2.00 | 1–4 | 1.6 | −0.64 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 2013-04-20 | Staake Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.43 | 5.14 | 6–6 | 1.1 | +2.71 | 11.3 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen,Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.2 | 2.37 |
| John Jackson Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 15.8 | 1.56 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.7 | 2.42 |
| PC Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.8 | 3.71 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 6.9 | 2.94 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 11.4 | 2.70 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.4 | 2.57 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.8 | 2.52 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 13 | 12.3 | 1.50 |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | C | 13 | 7.2 | 2.80 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.5 | 1.80 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.5 | 1.35 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.0 | 1.58 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.1 | 2.90 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.5 | 2.81 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.2 | 2.74 |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 17 | 12.1 | 2.40 |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 75% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg | Skipper | C | 14 | 6.1 | 2.96 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.8 | 2.74 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.3 | 1.76 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.3 | 2.56 |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 11.8 | 2.17 |
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.4 | 2.44 |
| Owen, Mosbacher&Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.2 | 2.41 |
| New England Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 18 | 13.7 | 1.71 |
| 9th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.4 | 2.54 |
| Eckerd Intersectional | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.1 | 3.28 |
| Charleston Coed | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.6 | 1.94 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 13.0 | 1.32 |
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 12.0 | 1.14 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 14.1 | 1.18 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 14.0 | 2.37 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 17.9 | 0.93 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
