Admiral Moore Team Race

HostNY Maritime
Date03/22/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	14–7
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	14–7
3	Fordham University	Rams	13–8
4	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	12–9
5	Tufts University	Jumbos	11–7
6	University of South Florida	Bulls	10–8
7	Georgetown University	Hoyas	9–9
8	Dartmouth College	Big Green	5–13
8	University of Vermont	Catamounts	5–13
10	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	3–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,744 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 51 of 96 matches (53%) with a log-loss of 0.768 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.97 ± 0.22: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 3% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6	8.71 school −0.43	Nikole Barnes / Michael Caballero 3.33 Dylan Finneran / Jaimie Chicoine 2.45 Avery Fanning / Robert Turley 3.27	51%	14–7 (67%)	+3.4
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5	9.01 school +0.10	Elliott Morrill / John Darby 2.77 Eddie Cox / Jane Rew 3.30 12–7 William Godfrey / Julia Oak 2.67 12–7 Eddie Cox / Julia Oak 3.19 2–0 William Godfrey / Alex Nugent 2.49 2–0	57%	14–7 (67%)	+2.1
3	Fordham University Rams	3	9.28 school +0.26	Will Holz / Emma Huntress 2.81 Alecsander Tayler / Connor Murphy 3.02 Connor Godfrey / Madeleine Sims 3.14 7–4 Connor Godfrey / Daniel Kraus 3.08 6–4	63%	13–8 (62%)	−0.3
4	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	10	7.29 school −0.59, home +0.27	Matthew Schoene / Paige Conlin 2.33 Arthur Libby / George Roberson 2.57 8–6 Julia Paxton / James Lane 2.62 6–6 Julia Paxton / Christopher Whalen 2.71 6–3 Arthur Libby / Andrew Haggerty 2.55 4–3	19%	12–9 (57%)	+8.0
5	Tufts University Jumbos	2	9.54 school +0.11	Charles Proctor / Elizabeth Keys 2.92 10–6 Dan Nickerson / Jamie Maffeo 3.17 10–6 Willem Sandberg / Ben Weigel 3.32 10–6 Charles Proctor / Mara Porter 2.84 1–1 Dan Nickerson / Ben Weigel 3.17 1–1 Willem Sandberg / Caroline Atwood 3.21 1–1	69%	11–7 (61%)	−1.3
6	University of South Florida Bulls	1	10.12	Connor Brady / Paul Perry 2.95 Fernando Monllor / Rebecca Campbell 3.31 Christopher Stocke / Ali Yarbrough 3.83	80%	10–8 (56%)	−4.4
7	Georgetown University Hoyas	7	8.42	Massimo Mazzolini / Elizabeth Mullarney 2.43 Jack Gerli / Genevieve Burgoyne 2.70 Aj Reiter / Eliana Michaels 3.17	42%	9–9 (50%)	+1.4
8	Dartmouth College Big Green	4	9.26 school −0.06	Ian Storck / Madeleine Cooney 2.97 Charles Lalumiere / Mia Steck 3.37 4–12 Robert Floyd / Sophie Kerr 2.85 4–12 Charles Lalumiere / Victor Hollenberg 3.21 1–1 Robert Floyd / Patrick Collins 2.71 1–1	62%	5–13 (28%)	−6.1
8	University of Vermont Catamounts	8	8.12 school −0.10	Jordan Factor / Sara Anibal 3.52 Adam Ceely / John Ring 2.01 Henry O'Brien / Travis Bobley 2.36	36%	5–13 (28%)	−1.5
10	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	9	7.52 school −0.56	Jack Swikart / Catie Hopkins 2.76 Maximiliano Agnese / Patricia Andrade 3.28 Joe Farned / Meaghan Harding	24%	3–15 (17%)	−1.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	SUNY Maritime College	7.29	9.22	12–9	4.0	+1.94	12.1	<1%
1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	8.71	9.50	14–7	10.6	+0.79	1.9	8%
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	9.01	9.49	14–7	11.9	+0.48	0.7	23%
7	Georgetown University	8.42	8.80	9–9	7.6	+0.38	0.4	31%
3	Fordham University	9.28	9.21	13–8	13.3	−0.08	0.0	66%
5	Tufts University	9.54	9.17	11–7	12.3	−0.37	0.4	84%
8	University of Vermont	8.12	7.68	5–13	6.5	−0.44	0.5	85%
10	University of Pennsylvania	7.52	7.03	3–15	4.3	−0.49	0.4	85%
6	University of South Florida	10.12	8.85	10–8	14.4	−1.28	4.3	>99%
8	Dartmouth College	9.26	7.56	5–13	11.1	−1.70	7.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Julia Paxton	SUNY Maritime College	2.62	4.55	12–9	4.0	+1.94	12.1	<1%
Matthew Schoene	SUNY Maritime College	2.33	4.26	12–9	4.0	+1.94	12.1	<1%
Arthur Libby	SUNY Maritime College	2.57	4.51	12–9	4.0	+1.94	12.1	<1%
Nikole Barnes	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.33	4.12	14–7	10.6	+0.79	1.9	8%
Dylan Finneran	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.45	3.24	14–7	10.6	+0.79	1.9	8%
Avery Fanning	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.27	4.05	14–7	10.6	+0.79	1.9	8%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.30	3.78	14–7	11.9	+0.48	0.7	23%
Elliott Morrill	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.77	3.25	14–7	11.9	+0.48	0.7	23%
William Godfrey	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.67	3.15	14–7	11.9	+0.48	0.7	23%
Massimo Mazzolini	Georgetown University	2.43	2.81	9–9	7.6	+0.38	0.4	31%
Jack Gerli	Georgetown University	2.70	3.08	9–9	7.6	+0.38	0.4	31%
Aj Reiter	Georgetown University	3.17	3.55	9–9	7.6	+0.38	0.4	31%
Connor Godfrey	Fordham University	3.14	3.07	13–8	13.3	−0.08	0.0	66%
Will Holz	Fordham University	2.81	2.74	13–8	13.3	−0.08	0.0	66%
Alecsander Tayler	Fordham University	3.02	2.95	13–8	13.3	−0.08	0.0	66%
Charles Proctor	Tufts University	2.92	2.55	11–7	12.3	−0.37	0.4	84%
Dan Nickerson	Tufts University	3.17	2.80	11–7	12.3	−0.37	0.4	84%
Willem Sandberg	Tufts University	3.32	2.94	11–7	12.3	−0.37	0.4	84%
Jordan Factor	University of Vermont	3.52	3.07	5–13	6.5	−0.44	0.5	85%
Adam Ceely	University of Vermont	2.01	1.57	5–13	6.5	−0.44	0.5	85%
Henry O'Brien	University of Vermont	2.36	1.92	5–13	6.5	−0.44	0.5	85%
Jack Swikart	University of Pennsylvania	2.76	2.27	3–15	4.3	−0.49	0.4	85%
Joe Farned	University of Pennsylvania	1.48	0.99	3–15	4.3	−0.49	0.4	85%
Fernando Monllor	University of South Florida	3.31	2.04	10–8	14.4	−1.28	4.3	>99%
Christopher Stocke	University of South Florida	3.83	2.56	10–8	14.4	−1.28	4.3	>99%
Ian Storck	Dartmouth College	2.97	1.27	5–13	11.1	−1.70	7.3	>99%
Charles Lalumiere	Dartmouth College	3.37	1.67	5–13	11.1	−1.70	7.3	>99%
Robert Floyd	Dartmouth College	2.85	1.14	5–13	11.1	−1.70	7.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	84%
1	2	Tufts University	Georgetown University	77%
1	3	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	91%
1	4	Dartmouth College	University of South Florida	28%	upset
1	5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	69%
1	6	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	36%	upset
1	7	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	89%
1	8	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	59%
1	9	University of Vermont	University of Pennsylvania	68%
1	10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of South Florida	19%	upset
1	11	Georgetown University	Fordham University	29%	upset
1	12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Dartmouth College	44%	upset
1	13	SUNY Maritime College	University of Vermont	32%	upset
1	14	Tufts University	University of South Florida	36%	upset
1	15	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Pennsylvania	80%
1	16	Fordham University	Dartmouth College	49%	upset
1	17	University of Vermont	Georgetown University	41%	upset
1	18	University of South Florida	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	76%
1	19	University of Pennsylvania	SUNY Maritime College	51%
1	20	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	29%	upset
1	21	University of Vermont	Dartmouth College	23%	upset
1	22	University of South Florida	Fordham University	70%
1	23	University of Pennsylvania	Georgetown University	27%	upset
1	24	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Tufts University	36%	upset
1	25	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	SUNY Maritime College	79%
1	26	University of South Florida	University of Vermont	88%
1	27	University of Pennsylvania	Dartmouth College	14%	upset
1	28	Fordham University	Tufts University	43%	upset
1	29	SUNY Maritime College	Georgetown University	25%	upset
1	30	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	42%	upset
1	31	University of South Florida	University of Pennsylvania	93%
1	32	Tufts University	University of Vermont	81%
1	33	SUNY Maritime College	Dartmouth College	12%	upset
1	34	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	55%
1	35	Georgetown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	43%	upset
1	36	Tufts University	University of Pennsylvania	88%
1	37	SUNY Maritime College	University of South Florida	5%	upset
1	38	University of Vermont	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	29%	upset
1	39	Dartmouth College	Georgetown University	71%
1	40	Fordham University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	63%
1	41	SUNY Maritime College	Tufts University	11%	upset
1	42	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	76%
1	43	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	15%	upset
1	44	Fordham University	University of Vermont	75%
1	45	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	55%
2	46	SUNY Maritime College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	14%	upset
2	47	Georgetown University	Tufts University	24%	upset
2	48	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	85%
2	49	University of South Florida	Dartmouth College	69%
2	50	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	63%
2	51	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Georgetown University	65%
2	52	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	89%
2	53	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	56%
2	54	University of Vermont	University of Pennsylvania	64%
2	55	University of South Florida	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	80%
2	56	Fordham University	Georgetown University	70%
2	57	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Dartmouth College	43%	upset
2	58	SUNY Maritime College	University of Vermont	28%	upset
2	59	Tufts University	University of South Florida	36%	upset
2	60	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Pennsylvania	75%
2	61	Fordham University	Dartmouth College	48%	upset
2	62	Georgetown University	University of Vermont	56%
2	63	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of South Florida	26%	upset
2	64	SUNY Maritime College	University of Pennsylvania	42%	upset
2	65	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	30%	upset
2	66	Dartmouth College	University of Vermont	76%
2	67	University of South Florida	Fordham University	69%
2	68	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	68%
2	69	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Tufts University	38%	upset
2	70	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	SUNY Maritime College	80%
2	71	University of South Florida	University of Vermont	87%
2	72	Dartmouth College	University of Pennsylvania	84%
2	73	Tufts University	Fordham University	56%
2	74	SUNY Maritime College	Georgetown University	25%	upset
2	75	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	42%	upset
2	76	University of South Florida	University of Pennsylvania	92%
2	77	Tufts University	University of Vermont	79%
2	78	SUNY Maritime College	Dartmouth College	11%	upset
2	79	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	45%	upset
2	80	Georgetown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	43%	upset
2	81	Tufts University	University of Pennsylvania	86%
2	82	SUNY Maritime College	University of South Florida	5%	upset
2	83	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Vermont	70%
2	84	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	28%	upset
2	85	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Fordham University	37%	upset
2	86	Tufts University	SUNY Maritime College	89%
2	87	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	74%
2	88	University of South Florida	Georgetown University	84%
2	89	Fordham University	University of Vermont	74%
2	90	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dartmouth College	43%	upset
4	91	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	45%	upset
4	92	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	20%	upset
4	93	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	89%
4	94	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	58%
4	95	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	86%
4	96	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Fordham University	37%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bears	Statesmen	Rams	Privateers	Jumbos	Bulls	Hoyas	Green	Catamounts	Quakers
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6–3	✕	W	L	W	W	W	L	L	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4–5	L	✕	L	W	W	L	L	W	L	W
Fordham University Rams	7–2	W	W	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	5–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	5–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	4–5	L	W	W	L	L	✕	L	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–5	W	W	W	L	L	W	✕	L	L	L
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–6	W	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L	L
University of Vermont Catamounts	4–5	L	W	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bears	Statesmen	Rams	Privateers	Jumbos	Bulls	Hoyas	Green	Catamounts	Quakers
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7–2	✕	W	W	W	W	L	L	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	7–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	5–4	L	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	6–3	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	6–3	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	6–3	W	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–4	W	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bears	Statesmen	Rams	Privateers
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	1–2	✕	L	W	L
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–0	W	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	1–2	L	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–2	W	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Privateers	2-4-6
2	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
3	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Quakers	2-3-6
4	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
5	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
6	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
7	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
8	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
9	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
10	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Bulls	2-3-6
11	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
12	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
13	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
14	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
15	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
16	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
17	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
18	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
19	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
20	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
21	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
22	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
23	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
24	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
25	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
26	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
27	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
28	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
29	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
30	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
31	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
32	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
33	Privateers	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
34	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
35	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
36	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
37	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
38	Catamounts	1-3-6	def.	Statesmen	2-4-5
39	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
40	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
41	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
42	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
43	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
44	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Catamounts	2-5-6
45	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
46	Privateers	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
47	Hoyas	3-4-6	def.	Jumbos	1-2-5 DSQ
48	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Quakers	2-3-6
49	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
50	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
51	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
52	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
53	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
54	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
55	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
56	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
57	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
58	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
59	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
60	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
61	Rams	1-3-4 DNS	def.	Big Green	2-5-6 DNS,DNS
62	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
63	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
64	Privateers	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
65	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
66	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
67	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
68	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
69	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
70	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
71	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
72	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
73	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
74	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
75	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Statesmen	2-5-6
76	Bulls	1-3-6	def.	Quakers	2-4-5
77	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
78	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
79	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
80	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
81	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
82	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
83	Statesmen	1-4-5	def.	Catamounts	2-3-6
84	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
85	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6 DSQ
86	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
87	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
88	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
89	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Catamounts	2-3-6
90	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
91	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
92	Privateers	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
93	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
94	Statesmen	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
95	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
96	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Avery Fanning '16 Dylan Finneran '15 Nikole Barnes '17	Robert Turley '16 Jaimie Chicoine '14 Michael Caballero '14
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Eddie Cox '16 Elliott Morrill '15 William Godfrey '16	Jane Rew '14 Julia Oak '14 John Darby '14 Alex Nugent '15
Fordham University	Rams	Alecsander Tayler '17 Connor Godfrey '16 Will Holz '17	Connor Murphy '16 Daniel Kraus '17 Madeleine Sims '16 Emma Huntress '16
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Arthur Libby '17 Julia Paxton '14 Matthew Schoene '15	Andrew Haggerty '14 George Roberson '15 James Lane '17 Christopher Whalen '15 Paige Conlin '14
Tufts University	Jumbos	Charles Proctor '14 Dan Nickerson '15 Willem Sandberg '14	Elizabeth Keys '14 Mara Porter '14 Jamie Maffeo '15 Ben Weigel '14 Caroline Atwood '16
University of South Florida	Bulls	Christopher Stocke '15 Connor Brady '15 Fernando Monllor '16	Ali Yarbrough '16 Paul Perry '15 Rebecca Campbell '16
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 Jack Gerli '17 Massimo Mazzolini '17	Eliana Michaels '14 Genevieve Burgoyne '14 Elizabeth Mullarney '16
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Charles Lalumiere '17 Ian Storck '15 Robert Floyd '17	Mia Steck '17 Victor Hollenberg '14 Madeleine Cooney '17 Sophie Kerr '17 Patrick Collins '17
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Adam Ceely '15 Henry O'Brien '15 Jordan Factor '14	John Ring '16 Travis Bobley '17 Sara Anibal '14
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Jack Swikart '15 Joe Farned '17 Maximiliano Agnese '16	Catie Hopkins '17 Meaghan Harding '16 Patricia Andrade '15

Conditions — 03/22/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 58% · Pressure 1009.2 hPa

Temperature

53°F

↑ 60°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.8 kn

avg · max 13.2 kn

Gusts to 25.7 kn

From WSW (238°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover71% Sunshine9.6 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1009.2 hPa

What this breeze does at NY Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at NY Maritime in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at NY Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled fleet-race days at NY Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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