University of Vermont '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.01 (fleet 2.78) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–39 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 5–1 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 5–13 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 3–25 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 10–14 against 8.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-03-28 | 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.29 | 5.00 | 5–1 | 1.6 | +2.72 | 6.3 | 1% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.01 | 1.57 | 5–13 | 6.5 | −0.44 | 0.5 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.8 | 2.01 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.7 | 3.20 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.8 | 3.35 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.8 | 3.35 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.0 | 3.12 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.7 | 2.84 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.2 | 3.14 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.1 | 1.67 |
| 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 54% | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.5 | 1.87 |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.5 | 1.44 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 28% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 3 | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.1 | 1.15 |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.9 | 2.17 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.9 | 2.26 |
| Harmon Cup -Sloops Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 4.4 | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.1 | 3.36 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.0 | 2.77 |
| Sharpe Trophy | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Oberg @ BU by NU | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.1 | 1.57 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 21 | 14% | — |
| Kruger Kup Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 2.9 | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| RI State Champs, Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.2 | 3.19 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.9 | 1.52 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.9 | 1.63 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 @ SRU | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.8 | 1.59 |
| 72nd Oberg Trophy @ BU by NU | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.2 | 2.79 |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.0 | 1.78 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Freshman Intersectional | Skipper | B | 20 | 7.2 | 0.48 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
