2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race

HostOld Dominion
Date03/28/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	21–3
2	Stanford University	Cardinal	19–5
3	University of Vermont	Catamounts	13–11
4	Georgetown University	Hoyas	13–11
5	Dartmouth College	Big Green	9–15
6	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	7–16
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	7–16
8	Fordham University	Rams	6–18

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,801 team race matches sailed before 2015-03-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 63 of 95 matches (66%) with a log-loss of 0.563 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.12 ± 0.21: a typical event, more orderly than 30% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	College of Charleston Cougars	1	12.75 school +0.24	Jake Reynolds / Rebekah Schiff 4.34 16–2 Ryan Davidson / Roy Shaw 3.79 16–2 Charles Rees / Alicia Blumenthal 4.22 16–2 Jake Reynolds / Alicia Blumenthal 4.46 5–1 Ryan Davidson / Rebekah Schiff 4.06 5–1 Charles Rees / Tierney Driscoll 4.15 5–1	78%	21–3 (88%)	+2.3
2	Stanford University Cardinal	2	12.74 school +0.39	Antoine Screve / John Cannistraro 4.10 Hans Henken / Nicolette Obel 3.88 Kieran Chung / Haley Kirk 4.30	78%	19–5 (79%)	+0.4
3	University of Vermont Catamounts	8	10.48 school −0.14	Nate Jermain / Travis Bobley 3.53 Michael Zonnenberg / Bridget Murphy 3.88 Michael Booker / Sydney Connor 3.39 8–10 Adam Ceely / Sydney Connor 2.29 5–1	27%	13–11 (54%)	+6.6
4	Georgetown University Hoyas	3	12.12 school −0.15	Aj Reiter / Katia Dasilva 4.12 Sean Golden / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 4.28 7–11 Alex Post / Bettina Redway 3.92 4–7 Alex Post / Katie Olsen 3.77 3–4 Sean Golden / Katie Olsen 4.13 6–0 Alex Post / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 3.91 6–0	66%	13–11 (54%)	−2.7
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	4	11.15 school −0.24	Scott Houck / Lizzie Guynn 3.33 Deirdre Lambert / Nathaniel Greason 4.09 Charles Lalumiere / Abigail Rohman 3.71	47%	9–15 (38%)	−2.3
6	Old Dominion University Monarchs	7	10.39 school −0.35, home +0.25	Joseph David / Jason Bankert 2.83 Esteban Forrer / Gabriel Smith 4.07 Daniel Lochner / Colin Voigt 3.32 5–12 Augie Dale / Colin Voigt 3.37 2–4	29%	7–16 (30%)	+0.3
7	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5	11.01	Michael Popp / Connor Hendi 3.73 Mary Hall / Manuel Inserni Pagan 3.45 6–11 Patrick Snow / Emma Ferris 3.71 6–11 Patrick Snow / Willard Hawley 3.28 1–5 Mary Hall / Willard Hawley 3.51 1–5	46%	7–16 (30%)	−3.5
8	Fordham University Rams	6	10.24 school −0.14	Will Holz / Emma Huntress 3.24 Connor Godfrey / Evan Morgan 3.54 Alecsander Tayler / Jamie Spence 3.48	29%	6–18 (25%)	−1.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	University of Vermont	10.48	11.84	13–11	6.4	+1.37	6.8	<1%
1	College of Charleston	12.75	13.54	21–3	18.7	+0.79	1.2	17%
2	Stanford University	12.74	12.84	19–5	18.6	+0.10	0.0	55%
6	Old Dominion University	10.39	10.46	7–16	6.7	+0.07	0.0	53%
8	Fordham University	10.24	9.98	6–18	7.0	−0.26	0.2	77%
5	Dartmouth College	11.15	10.67	9–15	11.3	−0.48	0.8	90%
4	Georgetown University	12.12	11.51	13–11	15.7	−0.61	1.2	94%
7	U. S. Naval Academy	11.01	10.16	7–16	10.5	−0.85	2.1	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Adam Ceely	University of Vermont	2.29	5.00	5–1	1.6	+2.72	6.3	1%
Nate Jermain	University of Vermont	3.53	4.90	13–11	6.4	+1.37	6.8	<1%
Michael Zonnenberg	University of Vermont	3.88	5.25	13–11	6.4	+1.37	6.8	<1%
Michael Booker	University of Vermont	3.39	4.35	8–10	4.8	+0.96	2.3	6%
Jake Reynolds	College of Charleston	4.34	5.13	21–3	18.7	+0.79	1.2	17%
Ryan Davidson	College of Charleston	3.79	4.58	21–3	18.7	+0.79	1.2	17%
Charles Rees	College of Charleston	4.22	5.01	21–3	18.7	+0.79	1.2	17%
Augie Dale	Old Dominion University	3.37	3.87	2–4	1.5	+0.50	0.2	47%
Antoine Screve	Stanford University	4.10	4.20	19–5	18.6	+0.10	0.0	55%
Hans Henken	Stanford University	3.88	3.98	19–5	18.6	+0.10	0.0	55%
Kieran Chung	Stanford University	4.30	4.40	19–5	18.6	+0.10	0.0	55%
Joseph David	Old Dominion University	2.83	2.90	7–16	6.7	+0.07	0.0	53%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	4.07	4.14	7–16	6.7	+0.07	0.0	53%
Daniel Lochner	Old Dominion University	3.32	3.25	5–12	5.2	−0.07	0.0	65%
Will Holz	Fordham University	3.24	2.98	6–18	7.0	−0.26	0.2	77%
Connor Godfrey	Fordham University	3.54	3.27	6–18	7.0	−0.26	0.2	77%
Alecsander Tayler	Fordham University	3.48	3.22	6–18	7.0	−0.26	0.2	77%
Scott Houck	Dartmouth College	3.33	2.85	9–15	11.3	−0.48	0.8	90%
Deirdre Lambert	Dartmouth College	4.09	3.61	9–15	11.3	−0.48	0.8	90%
Charles Lalumiere	Dartmouth College	3.71	3.23	9–15	11.3	−0.48	0.8	90%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	4.28	3.67	13–11	15.7	−0.61	1.2	94%
Aj Reiter	Georgetown University	4.12	3.52	13–11	15.7	−0.61	1.2	94%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	3.92	3.32	13–11	15.7	−0.61	1.2	94%
Mary Hall	U. S. Naval Academy	3.45	2.60	7–16	10.5	−0.85	2.1	98%
Michael Popp	U. S. Naval Academy	3.73	2.88	7–16	10.5	−0.85	2.1	98%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	3.71	2.86	7–16	10.5	−0.85	2.1	98%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	83%
1	2	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	50%	upset
1	3	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	86%
1	4	College of Charleston	University of Vermont	87%
1	5	Georgetown University	Fordham University	87%
1	6	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	49%	upset
1	7	Old Dominion University	University of Vermont	38%	upset
1	8	College of Charleston	Stanford University	48%	upset
1	9	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	70%
1	10	University of Vermont	Georgetown University	18%	upset
1	11	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	85%
1	12	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	94%
1	13	University of Vermont	Dartmouth College	42%	upset
1	14	Stanford University	Fordham University	93%
1	15	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	87%
1	16	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	87%
1	17	Stanford University	University of Vermont	88%
1	18	Dartmouth College	Old Dominion University	68%
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	69%
1	20	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	35%	upset
1	21	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	91%
1	22	University of Vermont	U. S. Naval Academy	19%	upset
1	23	Dartmouth College	Georgetown University	28%	upset
1	24	College of Charleston	Fordham University	92%
1	25	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	41%	upset
1	26	Stanford University	Georgetown University	63%
1	27	University of Vermont	Fordham University	35%	upset
1	28	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	82%
2	29	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	78%
2	30	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	54%
2	31	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	83%
2	32	College of Charleston	University of Vermont	87%
2	33	Georgetown University	Fordham University	86%
2	34	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	49%	upset
2	35	University of Vermont	Old Dominion University	59%
2	36	College of Charleston	Stanford University	49%	upset
2	37	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	72%
2	38	Georgetown University	University of Vermont	81%
2	39	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	84%
2	40	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	93%
2	41	University of Vermont	Dartmouth College	40%	upset
2	42	Stanford University	Fordham University	92%
2	43	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	14%	upset
2	44	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	87%
2	45	Stanford University	University of Vermont	88%
2	46	Dartmouth College	Old Dominion University	68%
2	47	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	70%
2	48	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	65%
2	49	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	91%
2	50	University of Vermont	U. S. Naval Academy	18%	upset
2	51	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	71%
2	52	College of Charleston	Fordham University	92%
2	53	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	60%
2	54	Georgetown University	Stanford University	37%	upset
2	55	University of Vermont	Fordham University	35%	upset
2	56	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	82%
2	85	Stanford University	Georgetown University	64%
2	86	College of Charleston	University of Vermont	87%
2	87	Stanford University	University of Vermont	88%
2	88	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	66%
2	89	University of Vermont	Georgetown University	20%	upset
2	90	College of Charleston	Stanford University	49%	upset
2	91	Dartmouth College	Old Dominion University	68%
2	92	Fordham University	U. S. Naval Academy	29%	upset
2	93	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	72%
2	94	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	46%	upset
2	95	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	48%	upset
3	57	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	76%
3	58	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	54%
3	59	Dartmouth College	Stanford University	17%	upset
3	60	College of Charleston	University of Vermont	87%
3	61	Georgetown University	Fordham University	86%
3	62	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	51%
3	63	University of Vermont	Old Dominion University	59%
3	64	Stanford University	College of Charleston	51%
3	65	Fordham University	Dartmouth College	28%	upset
3	66	University of Vermont	Georgetown University	20%	upset
3	67	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	84%
3	68	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	93%
3	69	University of Vermont	Dartmouth College	40%	upset
3	70	Stanford University	Fordham University	92%
3	71	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	85%
3	72	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	14%	upset
3	73	Stanford University	University of Vermont	88%
3	74	Old Dominion University	Dartmouth College	32%	upset
3	75	Fordham University	U. S. Naval Academy	29%	upset
3	76	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	66%
3	77	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	91%
3	78	University of Vermont	U. S. Naval Academy	18%	upset
3	79	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	70%
3	80	College of Charleston	Fordham University	92%
3	81	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	39%	upset
3	82	Stanford University	Georgetown University	64%
3	83	Fordham University	University of Vermont	65%
3	84	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	82%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Cardinal	Catamounts	Hoyas	Green	Monarchs	Midshipmen	Rams
College of Charleston Cougars	6–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	4–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–3	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–4	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Cardinal	Catamounts	Hoyas	Green	Monarchs	Midshipmen	Rams
College of Charleston Cougars	10–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	7–3	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	5–5	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–5	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–6	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–7	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–5	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L
Fordham University Rams	2–8	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Cardinal	Catamounts	Hoyas	Green	Monarchs	Midshipmen	Rams
College of Charleston Cougars	5–2	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L	W
Stanford University Cardinal	6–1	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	4–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–5	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	L
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–6	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L
Fordham University Rams	3–4	L	L	W	L	W	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
2	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
3	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
4	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
5	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
6	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
7	Monarchs	1-3-6	def.	Catamounts	2-4-5
8	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
9	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
10	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
11	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
12	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
13	Catamounts	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
14	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
15	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
16	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
17	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
18	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Monarchs	2-4-5
19	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
20	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
21	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
22	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
23	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
24	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
25	Monarchs	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
26	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
27	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
28	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
29	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
30	Monarchs	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
31	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
32	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
33	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
34	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
35	Catamounts	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
36	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Cardinal	2-4-5
37	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
38	Hoyas	2-4-5	def.	Catamounts	1-3-6 RAF
39	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
40	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
41	Catamounts	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
42	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
43	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
44	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
45	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
46	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
47	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
48	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
49	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
50	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
51	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
52	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
53	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
54	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
55	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
56	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
85	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
86	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
87	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
88	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
89	Catamounts	1-4-5	def.	Hoyas	2-3-6
90	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Cardinal	2-3-6
91	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
92	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
93	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
94	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
95	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
57	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
58	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
59	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Cardinal	2-5-6
60	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Catamounts	1-4-6
61	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
62	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
63	Catamounts	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
64	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
65	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
66	Catamounts	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
67	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
68	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
69	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
70	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
71	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
72	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
73	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
74	Monarchs	3-4-5	def.	Big Green	1-2-6 DSQ
75	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
76	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
77	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
78	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
79	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
80	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
81	Monarchs	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
82	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
83	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
84	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Charles Rees '16 Jake Reynolds '16 Ryan Davidson '16	Alicia Blumenthal '15 Tierney Driscoll '15 Rebekah Schiff '16 Roy Shaw '14
Stanford University	Cardinal	Antoine Screve '16 Hans Henken '15 Kieran Chung '15	John Cannistraro '17 Nicolette Obel '17 Haley Kirk '15
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Adam Ceely '15 Michael Booker '15 Michael Zonnenberg '15 Nate Jermain '15	Sydney Connor '18 Bridget Murphy '15 Travis Bobley '17
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 Alex Post '15 Sean Golden '16	Katia Dasilva '15 Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga '16 Bettina Redway '16 Katie Olsen '15
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Charles Lalumiere '17 Deirdre Lambert '15 Scott Houck '15	Abigail Rohman '16 Nathaniel Greason '17 Lizzie Guynn '16
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Augie Dale '18 Daniel Lochner '15 Esteban Forrer '16 Joseph David '16	Colin Voigt '15 Gabriel Smith '17 Jason Bankert '18
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Mary Hall '15 Michael Popp '16 Patrick Snow '17	Manuel Inserni Pagan '17 Willard Hawley '18 Connor Hendi '15 Emma Ferris '15
Fordham University	Rams	Alecsander Tayler '17 Connor Godfrey '16 Will Holz '17	Jamie Spence '18 Evan Morgan '18 Emma Huntress '16

Conditions — 03/28/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 47% · Pressure 1015.9 hPa

Temperature

41°F

↑ 43°F ↓ 38°F

Feels like 31°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.8 kn

avg · max 11.5 kn

Gusts to 23.7 kn

From NW (314°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1015.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a typical day (−0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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