Dartmouth College '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.65 (fleet 3.66) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 49–50 (49%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 4 | 26–25 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 19–18 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 4–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (87 matches) the record is 45–42 against 42.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.61 | 5.06 | 10–4 | 5.9 | +1.45 | 4.1 | 2% |
| 2015-03-28 | 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.33 | 2.85 | 9–15 | 11.3 | −0.48 | 0.8 | 90% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.57 | 4.10 | 7–5 | 5.8 | +0.53 | 0.5 | 32% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.33 | 4.08 | 10–5 | 7.9 | +0.75 | 1.1 | 18% |
| 2014-03-22 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.31 | 3.13 | 4–8 | 4.4 | −0.19 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.34 | 2.31 | 5–5 | 6.7 | −1.03 | 1.3 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.1 | 3.20 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.6 | 4.01 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.7 | 3.21 |
| Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.7 | 3.77 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 4.00 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.8 | 3.98 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.2 | 4.47 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 15.0 | 2.15 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.6 | 4.04 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 68% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.9 | 3.52 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-East | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.0 | 4.37 |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.8 | 3.71 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.6 | 3.64 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.1 | 3.33 |
| 71st Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 4.8 | — |
| Moody | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.2 | 3.05 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 6.4 | 3.88 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.7 | 4.28 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.6 | 3.58 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.3 | 3.90 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.7 | 3.60 |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 36% | — |
| College Sailing Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.8 | 3.86 |
| Owen / Mosbacher / Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.1 | 3.17 |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 15 | 6.9 | 3.72 |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.8 | 3.91 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.2 | 3.69 |
| Oberg | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.7 | 3.36 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.0 | 3.80 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.0 | 3.81 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.0 | 2.88 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.1 | 2.81 |
| ACC-qualified NE FR Scrimmage | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.3 | 3.42 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | D | 6 | 10.8 | 2.38 |
| 72nd Oberg Trophy @ BU by NU | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.7 | 3.12 |
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 18 | 8.1 | 3.04 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 19 | 9.7 | 2.83 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.2 | 3.44 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 5.7 | 3.73 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.2 | 4.46 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
