Navigate

ACC-qualified NE FR Scrimmage

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Boston College Boston College Eagles 85
2 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 87
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 90
4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 101
5 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 102
6 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 103
7 Brown University Brown University Bears 124
8 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 124
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Boston College Boston College Eagles A 8 9 2 3 7 7 36 William Bailey '15
Laura Mckenna '13
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green B 6 3 10 16 1 2 38 Scott Houck '15
Margaret Wilson '13
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 14 2 1 4 15 6 42 William Haeger '14
Paula Grasberger '14
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs B 2 5 6 6 13 12 44 Christopher Segerblom '14
Sarah Smith '15
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks B 1 1 14 14 12 4 46 William Macdonald '15
Bianca Rom '13
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 9 8 5 12 5 9 48 William Hutchings '13
Kathleen Kwasniak '14
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green A 3 13 4 15 4 10 49 Matthew Wefer '14
Avery Plough '14
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers A 7 7 13 2 6 14 49 Andrew Sommer '13
Kelden Pehr '13
Boston College Boston College Eagles B 4 11 7 8 14 5 49 Raul Rios '16
Patrick Hession '13
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers B 12 4 9 13 3 11 52 Philip Crain '13
Steven Drapcho '13
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson A 16 10 12 7 10 1 56 Gram Slattery '15
Alma Lafler '14
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks A 5 12 15 1 11 13 57 Alec Anderson '13
Alyssa Seifert '13
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs A 13 15 8 11 8 3 58 Cam Cullman '13
Charlotte Belling '16
Brown University Brown University Bears A 10 6 11 9 16 8 60 Tommy Fink '13
Ashley Noble '13
Brown University Brown University Bears B 11 14 16 5 2 16 64 Judge Ryan '14
Michael Yanagisawa '13
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson B 15 16 3 10 9 15 68 Andrew Mollerus '16
Sydney Karnovsky '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2008 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles111222
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears222111
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green333444
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson444333
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers555666
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks666555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos777888
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs888777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles999101010
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears101010999
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green111111121212
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson121212111111
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers131313141414
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks141414131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos151515161616
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs161616151515

Conditions — 11/10/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1025.7 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 36°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 7.1 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From NNW (339°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1025.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.19 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.27
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−1.00 ± 0.40)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →