Dartmouth College '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.03 (fleet 4.19) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 44–50 (47%) as crew 2–1 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 35–34 | 2–1 |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 9–16 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (72 matches) the record is 37–35 against 38.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 4.14 | 3.72 | 8–8 | 9.4 | −0.42 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 4.04 | 4.51 | 15–7 | 13.1 | +0.47 | 0.6 | 25% |
| 2014-03-22 | 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 4.04 | 3.83 | 7–14 | 7.8 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 4.13 | 3.53 | 5–5 | 6.0 | −0.60 | 0.4 | 88% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | crew | 4.13 | 3.88 | 2–1 | 2.1 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 68% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.4 | 4.21 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-East | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.3 | 3.79 |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 16 | 50% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.8 | 4.84 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.4 | 3.77 |
| 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| SMC Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.4 | 4.20 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.0 | 4.43 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.6 | 3.66 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.7 | 3.95 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.0 | 4.18 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.4 | 4.08 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.3 | 4.86 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 36% | — |
| College Sailing Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.6 | 4.24 |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.3 | 3.58 |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.4 | 4.68 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 15 | 3.9 | 4.67 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.7 | 3.80 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.4 | 4.10 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.2 | 3.76 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.1 | 4.29 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.6 | 3.40 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.8 | 3.53 |
| ACC-qualified NE FR Scrimmage | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.2 | 2.89 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.0 | 3.75 |
| New England Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.5 | 3.72 |
| Gill Dinghy National Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.4 | 2.61 |
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.2 | 3.53 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.0 | 2.31 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.5 | 3.27 |
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 4.6 | 4.20 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.8 | 3.40 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.1 | 3.66 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.9 | 3.00 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 18 | 5.2 | 4.42 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Coed Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.8 | 3.08 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.9 | 2.82 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Penbay Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.4 | 3.72 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.1 | 3.34 |
| The Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.9 | 3.87 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 7 | 6.7 | 3.14 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | B | 1 | 13.0 | — |
| Spring 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| New London Invitational | Skipper | A | 18 | 4.9 | 3.35 |
| The Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.0 | 2.80 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.7 | 2.66 |
| 2010 New England | Skipper | B | 17 | 9.9 | 2.63 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.1 | 2.71 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.8 | 2.04 |
| 68th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 1 | 17.0 | — |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.5 | 1.84 |
| Fall 2008 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.2 | 1.94 |
| Hatch Brown | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.9 | 1.64 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
