2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race

HostOld Dominion
Date03/22/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	16–5
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	16–5
3	Stanford University	Cardinal	15–6
4	College of Charleston	Cougars	14–7
5	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	8–13
6	Georgetown University	Hoyas	8–13
7	Dartmouth College	Big Green	7–14
8	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	0–21

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,744 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 60 of 84 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.484 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.28 ± 0.24: an orderly event, more orderly than 73% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5	11.50 school +0.49	Joshua Greenslade / Nicole Deangeli 3.83 John Wallace / Allison Shane 3.19 Fletcher Sims / Kelley Merryman 3.99 11–4 Fletcher Sims / Catherine Shanahan 3.84 5–1	51%	16–5 (76%)	+5.2
2	Yale University Bulldogs	1	12.77 school +0.10	Christopher Segerblom / Charlotte Belling 4.01 14–4 Graham Landy / Eugenia Custo Greig 4.44 14–4 Ian Barrows / Katherine Gaumond 4.19 14–4 Christopher Segerblom / Eugenia Custo Greig 3.94 2–1 Graham Landy / Charlotte Belling 4.51 2–1 Ian Barrows / Meredith Megarry 4.05 2–1	77%	16–5 (76%)	−0.2
3	Stanford University Cardinal	2	12.19 school +0.24	Hans Henken / Mary Vangelos 3.72 11–4 Mateo Vargas / Tally Buckstaff 4.00 9–6 Kevin Laube / Yuri Namikawa 4.22 10–2 Oliver Toole / Nicolette Obel 3.87 8–4 Kieran Chung / Haley Kirk 4.13 7–2	67%	15–6 (71%)	+1.0
4	College of Charleston Cougars	4	11.65 school +0.15	Jake Reynolds / Alicia Blumenthal 4.14 Nick Johnstone / Septima Mcadams 3.48 Ryan Davidson / Rebekah Schiff 3.79 13–5 Ryan Davidson / Emily Stuart 3.90 1–2	55%	14–7 (67%)	+2.5
5	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6	11.29 school +0.25	Michael Grove / Elizabeth Morrison 3.79 5–7 Mary Hall / Charles Peck 3.69 5–7 Michael Popp / Aaron Hull 3.48 5–7 Michael Grove / Alexandra Asuncion 3.84 3–6 Mary Hall / Aaron Hull 3.68 3–6 Michael Popp / Elizabeth Morrison 3.50 3–6	45%	8–13 (38%)	−1.6
6	Georgetown University Hoyas	3	11.97	Sean Golden / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 3.57 Nevin Snow / Isabelle Teare 4.52 Alex Post / Katie Olsen 3.75 2–10 Alex Post / Bettina Redway 3.84 6–3	59%	8–13 (38%)	−4.5
7	Dartmouth College Big Green	7	10.97 school −0.06	Deirdre Lambert / Nathaniel Greason 3.73 Matthew Wefer / Avery Plough 4.04 7–11 Evan Read / Abigail Rohman 3.27 7–5 Evan Read / Hunter Johnstone 2.98 0–9 Matthew Wefer / Abigail Rohman 4.05 0–3	37%	7–14 (33%)	−0.8
8	Old Dominion University Monarchs	8	9.21 school −0.25, home +0.27	Jacob Spracher / Chloe Constants 2.65 Esteban Forrer / Julia Wiesner 3.74 0–18 Daniel Lochner / Jill Fattibene 2.77 0–18 Esteban Forrer / Gabriel Smith 3.49 0–3 Daniel Lochner / Julia Wiesner 2.82 0–3	8%	0–21 (0%)	−1.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	11.50	12.79	16–5	10.8	+1.29	4.7	1%
4	College of Charleston	11.65	12.22	14–7	11.5	+0.57	1.0	18%
3	Stanford University	12.19	12.44	15–6	14.0	+0.24	0.2	41%
2	Yale University	12.77	12.70	16–5	16.2	−0.07	0.0	67%
7	Dartmouth College	10.97	10.77	7–14	7.8	−0.21	0.1	74%
5	U. S. Naval Academy	11.29	10.91	8–13	9.6	−0.37	0.4	84%
6	Georgetown University	11.97	10.90	8–13	12.5	−1.07	3.4	99%
8	Old Dominion University	9.21	6.21	0–21	1.7	≤−3.00	2.4	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Joshua Greenslade	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.83	5.13	16–5	10.8	+1.29	4.7	1%
Fletcher Sims	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.99	5.28	16–5	10.8	+1.29	4.7	1%
John Wallace	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.19	4.48	16–5	10.8	+1.29	4.7	1%
Kevin Laube	Stanford University	4.22	5.02	10–2	8.6	+0.80	0.8	27%
Kieran Chung	Stanford University	4.13	4.87	7–2	5.7	+0.74	0.7	30%
Jake Reynolds	College of Charleston	4.14	4.72	14–7	11.5	+0.57	1.0	18%
Ryan Davidson	College of Charleston	3.79	4.36	14–7	11.5	+0.57	1.0	18%
Nick Johnstone	College of Charleston	3.48	4.05	14–7	11.5	+0.57	1.0	18%
Hans Henken	Stanford University	3.72	3.85	11–4	10.6	+0.13	0.0	55%
Mateo Vargas	Stanford University	4.00	4.06	9–6	8.8	+0.05	0.0	57%
Christopher Segerblom	Yale University	4.01	3.94	16–5	16.2	−0.07	0.0	67%
Graham Landy	Yale University	4.44	4.37	16–5	16.2	−0.07	0.0	67%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	4.19	4.12	16–5	16.2	−0.07	0.0	67%
Oliver Toole	Stanford University	3.87	3.75	8–4	8.3	−0.12	0.0	70%
Evan Read	Dartmouth College	3.27	3.06	7–14	7.8	−0.21	0.1	74%
Deirdre Lambert	Dartmouth College	3.73	3.52	7–14	7.8	−0.21	0.1	74%
Matthew Wefer	Dartmouth College	4.04	3.83	7–14	7.8	−0.21	0.1	74%
Michael Grove	U. S. Naval Academy	3.79	3.42	8–13	9.6	−0.37	0.4	84%
Mary Hall	U. S. Naval Academy	3.69	3.32	8–13	9.6	−0.37	0.4	84%
Michael Popp	U. S. Naval Academy	3.48	3.11	8–13	9.6	−0.37	0.4	84%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	3.57	2.50	8–13	12.5	−1.07	3.4	99%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	3.75	2.67	8–13	12.5	−1.07	3.4	99%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.52	3.44	8–13	12.5	−1.07	3.4	99%
Jacob Spracher	Old Dominion University	2.65	-0.35	0–21	1.7	≤−3.00	2.4	>99%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	3.74	0.74	0–21	1.7	≤−3.00	2.4	>99%
Daniel Lochner	Old Dominion University	2.77	-0.23	0–21	1.7	≤−3.00	2.4	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	95%
1	2	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	61%
1	3	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	43%	upset
1	4	Yale University	College of Charleston	72%
1	5	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	94%
1	6	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	79%
1	7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Yale University	22%	upset
1	8	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	43%	upset
1	9	Dartmouth College	Georgetown University	27%	upset
1	10	Yale University	Old Dominion University	97%
1	11	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	64%
1	12	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	52%
1	13	Yale University	Dartmouth College	89%
1	14	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	66%
1	15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	93%
1	16	College of Charleston	Stanford University	43%	upset
1	17	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	82%
1	18	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	64%
1	19	Stanford University	Georgetown University	67%
1	20	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	92%
1	21	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	57%
1	22	Stanford University	Yale University	46%	upset
1	23	Dartmouth College	Old Dominion University	86%
1	24	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	43%	upset
1	25	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	62%
1	26	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	88%
1	27	Yale University	Georgetown University	70%
1	28	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	69%
2	29	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	95%
2	30	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	38%	upset
2	31	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	43%	upset
2	32	College of Charleston	Yale University	28%	upset
2	33	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	94%
2	34	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	79%
2	35	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	78%
2	36	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	58%
2	37	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	73%
2	38	Yale University	Old Dominion University	97%
2	39	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	64%
2	40	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	53%
2	41	Yale University	Dartmouth College	87%
2	42	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	34%	upset
2	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	92%
2	44	Stanford University	College of Charleston	56%
2	45	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	82%
2	46	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	63%
2	47	Georgetown University	Stanford University	33%	upset
2	48	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	92%
2	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	57%
2	50	Stanford University	Yale University	46%	upset
2	51	Dartmouth College	Old Dominion University	86%
2	52	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	43%	upset
2	53	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stanford University	38%	upset
2	54	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	88%
2	55	Yale University	Georgetown University	70%
2	56	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	68%
3	57	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	95%
3	58	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	38%	upset
3	59	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	44%	upset
3	60	Yale University	College of Charleston	72%
3	61	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	94%
3	62	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	78%
3	63	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Yale University	22%	upset
3	64	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	42%	upset
3	65	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	72%
3	66	Yale University	Old Dominion University	97%
3	67	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	36%	upset
3	68	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	47%	upset
3	69	Yale University	Dartmouth College	87%
3	70	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	34%	upset
3	71	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	92%
3	72	Stanford University	College of Charleston	56%
3	73	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	82%
3	74	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	62%
3	75	Stanford University	Georgetown University	66%
3	76	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	92%
3	77	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	57%
3	78	Yale University	Stanford University	55%
3	79	Dartmouth College	Old Dominion University	86%
3	80	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	43%	upset
3	81	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stanford University	39%	upset
3	82	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	88%
3	83	Yale University	Georgetown University	70%
3	84	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	67%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Bulldogs	Cardinal	Cougars	Midshipmen	Hoyas	Green	Monarchs
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–3	✕	W	L	L	W	L	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	5–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	6–1	W	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	5–2	W	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	L	L	L	W	✕	L	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–4	W	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Bulldogs	Cardinal	Cougars	Midshipmen	Hoyas	Green	Monarchs
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–2	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	5–2	W	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	5–2	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	6–1	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Seahawks	Bulldogs	Cardinal	Cougars	Midshipmen	Hoyas	Green	Monarchs
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	4–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–3	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
2	Hoyas	1-5-6	def.	Seahawks	2-3-4 DSQ
3	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
4	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
5	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
6	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
7	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
8	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
9	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
10	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
11	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
12	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
13	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
14	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
15	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
16	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
18	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
19	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
20	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
21	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
22	Cardinal	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
23	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
24	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
25	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
26	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
27	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
28	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
29	Cardinal	1-3-6	def.	Monarchs	2-4-5
30	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
31	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
32	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
33	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
34	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
35	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
36	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
37	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
38	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
39	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
40	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
41	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
42	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
43	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
44	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
45	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
46	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
47	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Cardinal	2-5-6
48	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
49	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
50	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
51	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
52	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
53	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
54	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
55	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
56	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
57	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
58	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
59	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
60	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
61	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
62	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
63	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
64	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
65	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
66	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
67	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
68	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
69	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
70	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
71	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
72	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
73	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
74	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
75	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
76	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
77	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-5
78	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
79	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
80	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
81	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
82	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
83	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
84	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Fletcher Sims '14 John Wallace '14 Joshua Greenslade '14	Kelley Merryman '14 Catherine Shanahan '15 Allison Shane '15 Nicole Deangeli '14
Yale University	Bulldogs	Christopher Segerblom '14 Graham Landy '15 Ian Barrows '17	Charlotte Belling '16 Eugenia Custo Greig '14 Katherine Gaumond '15 Meredith Megarry '17
Stanford University	Cardinal	Hans Henken '15 Kevin Laube '14 Kieran Chung '15 Mateo Vargas '14 Oliver Toole '14	Mary Vangelos '17 Yuri Namikawa '14 Haley Kirk '15 Tally Buckstaff '14 Nicolette Obel '17
College of Charleston	Cougars	Jake Reynolds '16 Nick Johnstone '15 Ryan Davidson '16	Alicia Blumenthal '15 Septima Mcadams '16 Rebekah Schiff '16 Emily Stuart '16
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Mary Hall '15 Michael Grove '14 Michael Popp '16	Charles Peck '15 Aaron Hull '16 Elizabeth Morrison '14 Alexandra Asuncion '15
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alex Post '15 Nevin Snow '16 Sean Golden '16	Bettina Redway '16 Katie Olsen '15 Isabelle Teare '17 Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga '16
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Deirdre Lambert '15 Evan Read '16 Matthew Wefer '14	Nathaniel Greason '17 Abigail Rohman '16 Hunter Johnstone '16 Avery Plough '14
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Daniel Lochner '15 Esteban Forrer '16 Jacob Spracher '15	Jill Fattibene '14 Julia Wiesner '14 Gabriel Smith '17 Chloe Constants '14

Conditions — 03/22/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 50% · Pressure 1014.5 hPa

Temperature

64°F

↑ 72°F ↓ 49°F

Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.9 kn

avg · max 11.4 kn

Gusts to 23.3 kn

From SW (230°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine9.3 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1014.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu