Old Dominion University '15
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.64 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 72 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.38 (fleet 3.30) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 34–83 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 6 | 17–36 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 17–47 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (115 matches) the record is 33–82 against 35.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.2). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-03-28 | 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.32 | 3.25 | 5–12 | 5.2 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.87 | 3.73 | 5–7 | 3.5 | +0.87 | 1.0 | 20% |
| 2015-03-14 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.15 | 3.01 | 1–4 | 1.1 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2015-03-07 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.20 | 1.87 | 2–7 | 3.3 | −1.33 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 2015-02-28 | 2015 McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 3.27 | 0.77 | 3–5 | 5.9 | −2.51 | 5.4 | >99% |
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.11 | 2.14 | 4–11 | 5.5 | −0.97 | 1.0 | 95% |
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 2.68 | 3.85 | 9–6 | 5.8 | +1.17 | 2.7 | 5% |
| 2014-03-22 | 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.77 | -0.23 | 0–21 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 2.4 | >99% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.58 | 3.06 | 4–9 | 3.2 | +0.48 | 0.3 | 38% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.4 | 3.00 |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.6 | 3.34 |
| Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.3 | 4.08 |
| 2015 McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 14.0 | 2.59 |
| 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 23 | 30% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.4 | 3.39 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.3 | 2.97 |
| Luce Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.4 | 2.94 |
| Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.3 | 3.37 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 12.5 | 3.07 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 14 | 7.4 | 2.67 |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 21 | 48% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.2 | 3.07 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.6 | 3.22 |
| 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| South #1 Dinghy Qualifier | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.5 | 2.13 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.1 | 2.64 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 20 | 10.8 | 2.69 |
| MAISA Laser Qualifier Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 17 | 7.4 | 2.51 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.8 | 2.66 |
| Carl Van Duyne Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.4 | 2.33 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| South #1 | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.6 | 2.96 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.3 | 1.76 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.5 | 1.80 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.8 | 2.79 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Spring Open | Skipper | B | 14 | 3.0 | 2.96 |
| Charleston Coed | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.5 | 1.98 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.7 | 2.00 |
| MAISA Laser Qualifier Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 4 | 15.8 | 0.15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
