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SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT
Georgetown University Georgetown University Nevin Snow '16 3 2 1 2 7 11 2 1 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 3 9 8 62
George Washington University George Washington University Daniel Delbello '17 4 1 BKD 1 12 5 3 4 1 2 11 2 1 3 1 4 4 1 64
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Markus Edegran '16 1 3 2 15 1 7 1 2 11 11 6 11 10 4 3 5 1 2 96
Georgetown University Georgetown University Greg Martinez '18 6 9 4 3 5 1 10 3 5 17 2 4 2 16 6 1 2 3 99
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Nathan Fields '17 7 7 14 6 4 2 5 12 13 10 14 8 8 2 5 2 8 5 132
George Washington University George Washington University Colin Kennedy '17 11 5 11 5 14 4 6 7 4 15 7 1 4 9 10 14 3 4 134
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Daniel Lochner '15 2 10 3 13 11 9 13 5 7 12 8 7 9 11 7 12 10 9 158
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Ethan Lounsbury '17 9 8 13 10 8 8 4 14 6 9 10 12 7 7 13 9 7 11 165
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Charles Peck '15 13 6 16 7 15 6 14 16 16 4 4 13 13 8 8 6 14 6 185
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Philip Youngberg '15 10 12 7 19 10 3 7 6 3 6 17 17 14 17 17 13 5 10 193
Georgetown University Georgetown University John Labossiere '17 14 17 8 14 3 16 17 13 9 7 15 5 6 13 11 8 6 14 196
Monmouth University Monmouth University Paul Stevens '14 16 13 5 9 2 19 15 11 8 8 3 9 12 5 15 15 16 16 197
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Michael Madigan '17 12 14 9 16 13 12 9 9 14 3 9 19 11 15 4 11 13 7 200
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Kyle Burgess '17 19 11 10 4 6 17 12 20 12 5 5 6 15 14 12 10 11 12 201
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Jack Swikart '15 5 4 12 11 16 14 19 8 15 16 12 18 5 6 9 7 12 13 202
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Jacob Spracher '15 8 20 6 8 9 13 8 10 10 14 13 15 18 12 14 17 15 15 225
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Joe Farned '17 15 16 17 20 20 10 11 15 17 13 16 10 16 10 19 16 17 17 275
William and Mary William and Mary Scott Guinn '15 20 18 18 18 19 18 16 18 18 18 19 14 17 18 16 18 18 18 319
University of Virginia University of Virginia Samuel Patterson '16 17 19 19 12 17 15 18 19 19 19 18 16 19 20 18 19 19 20 323
University of Virginia University of Virginia Nicholas Baez '17 18 15 20 17 18 20 20 17 20 20 20 20 20 19 20 20 20 19 343

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  20 boats · 18 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Nevin Snow '16Georgetown University Hoyas 318/183.404.25+0.8589th → 98th3.83%3.4 / 6.3
2Daniel Delbello '17George Washington University Colonials 118/182.324.25+1.9360th → 98th15.81%4.5 / 9.4
3Markus Edegran '16U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 218/182.603.36+0.7768th → 89th3.46%5.3 / 8.5
4Greg Martinez '18Georgetown University Hoyas 218/182.913.15+0.2478th → 84th0.414%5.5 / 7.6
5Nathan Fields '17Old Dominion University Monarchs 118/182.132.82+0.6956th → 77th2.919%7.3 / 9.9
6Colin Kennedy '17George Washington University Colonials 218/181.872.80+0.9347th → 76th5.17%7.4 / 10.7
7Daniel Lochner '15Old Dominion University Big Blue18/182.052.62+0.5853rd → 69th2.126%8.8 / 10.2
8Ethan Lounsbury '17Old Dominion University Monarchs 218/181.582.53+0.9539th → 65th5.414%9.2 / 11.5
9Charles Peck '15U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 318/182.122.05−0.0756th → 53rd0.056%10.3 / 9.9
10Philip Youngberg '15U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 118/182.181.77−0.4157th → 43rd1.269%10.7 / 9.7
11John Labossiere '17Georgetown University Hoyas 118/181.911.94+0.0448th → 50th0.056%10.9 / 10.5
12Paul Stevens '14Monmouth University18/181.641.79+0.1540th → 44th0.244%10.9 / 11.3
13Michael Madigan '17U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 418/182.411.92−0.5061st → 48th2.078%11.1 / 9.1
14Kyle Burgess '17St. Mary's College of Maryland18/182.091.61−0.4855th → 40th1.666%11.2 / 10.0
15Jack Swikart '15University of Pennsylvania Quakers 118/182.141.77−0.3756th → 43rd1.067%11.2 / 10.0
16Jacob Spracher '15Old Dominion University Monarchs 318/181.891.46−0.4248th → 36th1.376%12.5 / 10.6
17Joe Farned '17University of Pennsylvania Quakers 218/181.340.81−0.5331st → 18th2.088%15.3 / 12.2
18Scott Guinn '15William and Mary18/181.020.37−0.6523rd → 11th3.398%17.7 / 13.0
19Samuel Patterson '16University of Virginia Wahoos 118/180.630.03−0.6017th → 6th2.496%17.9 / 14.0
20Nicholas Baez '17University of Virginia Wahoos 218/180.01-1.11−1.116th → 1st4.898%19.1 / 15.6

Conditions — 09/14/2013 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1018.1 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From NNW (333°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover59% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1018.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →