University of Pennsylvania '15
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.74 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 27 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.51 (fleet 3.47) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 20–74 (21%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 12–28 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 7–32 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 1–14 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (79 matches) the record is 19–60 against 15.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-04 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.44 | 5.60 | 5–2 | 2.2 | +2.16 | 4.3 | 2% |
| 2015-03-28 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.21 | 3.25 | 6–12 | 5.8 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.18 | 4.47 | 1–14 | 0.3 | +1.29 | 0.8 | 27% |
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 2.93 | 3.56 | 4–17 | 2.5 | +0.63 | 0.7 | 22% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.76 | 2.27 | 3–15 | 4.3 | −0.49 | 0.4 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | 3.97 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | D | 18 | 8.3 | 3.06 |
| St. Mary's College of MD Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.0 | 3.29 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.4 | 4.13 |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.0 | 3.08 |
| MAISA Club Championship | Skipper | B | 3 | 1.7 | 4.37 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.0 | 3.24 |
| Central Fall Qualifier | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.1 | 3.34 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 3 | 1.7 | 5.95 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| ODU Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.0 | 3.39 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.4 | 3.88 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.9 | 3.46 |
| Charleston Coed | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.4 | 3.90 |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.5 | 3.64 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.1 | 4.05 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.9 | 3.08 |
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.5 | 3.53 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.5 | 3.70 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.0 | 3.62 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 15 | 12.6 | 3.18 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.0 | 2.86 |
| Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.1 | 2.92 |
| Cornell Fall Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.8 | 4.12 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 21 | 19% | — |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.2 | 3.22 |
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.3 | 3.57 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-East | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.3 | 3.27 |
| Engineer's Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.6 | 2.57 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.7 | 3.03 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 17% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.6 | 2.83 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.1 | 3.40 |
| SMC Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.0 | 2.72 |
| North Fall 2 | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.8 | 2.48 |
| MAISA Club Championships | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.7 | 3.56 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.2 | 2.01 |
| Central Fall #1 | Skipper | A | 18 | 3.7 | 3.25 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.5 | 3.10 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Owen / Mosbacher / Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.9 | 2.89 |
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.8 | 3.36 |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.5 | 3.80 |
| Drexel Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.8 | 2.12 |
| Delaware Spring Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.0 | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 9.7 | 2.29 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.8 | 2.81 |
| Robert P. Arrigan Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.6 | 1.43 |
| Owen, Mosbacher&Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.0 | 2.02 |
| ODU Spring Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.8 | 2.04 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.7 | 1.89 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.6 | 2.73 |
| St. Mary's Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 8 | 14.0 | 1.50 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.8 | 2.13 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.9 | -0.20 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 17 | 12.4 | 2.23 |
| MAISA Club Championships | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.9 | 3.25 |
| MAISA Central Qualifier | Skipper | B | 16 | 4.1 | 2.40 |
| Laser South Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.8 | 2.66 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 18 | 12.9 | 2.47 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
