| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 6–1 |
| 2 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 5–2 |
| 3 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Washington College | Shoremen | 4–3 |
| 6 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
Hampton University | Pirates | 2–5 |
| 8 |  |
Christopher Newport University | Captains | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,258 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 20 of 28 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.537 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.21 ± 0.35: a typical event, more orderly than 23% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | University of Pennsylvania | 7.47 | 9.63 | 5–2 | 2.2 | +2.16 | 4.3 | 2% |
| 5 | Washington College | 8.13 | 8.75 | 4–3 | 3.2 | +0.62 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 7 | Hampton University | 7.17 | 7.23 | 2–5 | 1.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 4 | Cornell University | 8.65 | 8.65 | 4–3 | 4.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 1 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 10.30 | 10.17 | 6–1 | 6.1 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 2 | George Washington University | 9.69 | 9.29 | 5–2 | 5.4 | −0.40 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 6 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 8.70 | 6.96 | 2–5 | 4.1 | −1.74 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 8 | Christopher Newport University | 6.39 | 3.39 | 0–7 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Statesmen | Colonials | Quakers | Red | Shoremen | Mariners | Pirates | Captains | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 6–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 5–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 5–2 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 4–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 4–3 | W | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Hampton University Pirates | 2–5 | L | L | W | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 0–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Pirates | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Pirates | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Colonials | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Captains | 2-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Shoremen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Captains | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Pirates | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Quakers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Pirates | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Pirates | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Pirates | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Shoremen | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 2-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Quakers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Colonials | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Pirates | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Big Red | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Quakers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Captains | 2-3-6 |
| 28 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
