Hampton University '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.80 (fleet 3.87) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–44 (14%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 0–14 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 2–14 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 5–16 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (51 matches) the record is 7–44 against 9.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-08 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.18 | 0.18 | 0–14 | 1.9 | ≤−3.00 | 2.8 | >99% |
| 2016-03-26 | MAISA/SAISA | skipper | 3.03 | 3.58 | 2–14 | 1.3 | +0.56 | 0.3 | 38% |
| 2015-04-04 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.73 | 2.79 | 2–5 | 1.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2015-03-28 | MAISA/SAISA Team Race | skipper | 2.42 | 1.87 | 3–11 | 4.0 | −0.55 | 0.4 | 86% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.3 | 4.24 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.4 | 3.56 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.6 | 3.67 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.7 | 4.22 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.8 | 3.78 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.8 | 2.96 |
| South Qualifier | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.8 | 3.23 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.6 | 2.46 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.5 | 3.87 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.7 | 3.60 |
| Henry Luce Trophy - MAISA | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.3 | 3.52 |
| Edward Teach Memorial | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.5 | 3.44 |
| 75th Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.0 | 4.01 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb/Woolum Regatta | Skipper | A | 15 | 2.2 | 2.41 |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 0% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.9 | 3.38 |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.1 | 3.63 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.3 | 3.80 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.0 | 3.85 |
| America Trophy - MAISA Conference Championship | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.5 | 3.94 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.7 | 4.79 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial Backup | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.5 | 4.42 |
| South #1/ Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.8 | 3.92 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.2 | 2.60 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.8 | 3.31 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.7 | 3.95 |
| 43rd Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.5 | 3.21 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb Regatta | Skipper | A | 9 | 1.6 | 2.48 |
| Villanova Spring Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.7 | 2.97 |
| ODU Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.4 | 3.60 |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | TR | 16 | 12% | — |
| The Leroy Grant | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.9 | 3.36 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.1 | 3.35 |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.4 | 3.23 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.8 | 2.88 |
| Teach Memorial | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.2 | 1.97 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.3 | 3.46 |
| Henry Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.3 | 3.83 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.0 | 3.66 |
| Colony Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.2 | 4.53 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| William & Mary Spring Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.6 | 1.64 |
| MAISA/SAISA Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 23% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 15 | 14.3 | 2.41 |
| MAISA Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.0 | 3.83 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 1.8 | 3.50 |
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.6 | 1.94 |
| MAISA South Dinghy Fall Qualifier | Skipper | B | 15 | 4.3 | 3.15 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.9 | 2.66 |
| Colony Cup | Crew | B | 6 | 1.3 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
