Prosser Trophy

HostNY Maritime
Date04/08/2017
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	10–4
2	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	10–4
3	Georgetown University	Hoyas	9–5
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	8–6
5	George Washington University	Colonials	8–6
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	6–8
7	Fordham University	Rams	5–9
8	Hampton University	Pirates	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 8,652 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 38 of 58 matches (66%) with a log-loss of 0.561 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.03 ± 0.28: a typical event, more orderly than 40% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3	11.09	Peter Hogan / Mary Robertson 3.44 10–3 Patrick Snow / Brittney Slook 3.81 7–4 Gary Prieto / Molly Hanson 3.77 7–4 Patrick Snow / Mary Morocco 3.95 4–0 Gary Prieto / Ana Mier 3.83 4–0 Michael Madigan / Mary Robertson 3.46 1–1	67%	11–4 (73%)	+1.0
2	Old Dominion University Monarchs	6	10.01 school −0.20	Jeremy Herrin / Carter Little 3.73 Jack Elkin / Gabriel Smith 3.60 James Jacob / Stephen Guglielmo 2.83 8–5 James Jacob / Dane Pedersen 3.00 2–0	39%	10–5 (67%)	+4.2
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	1	11.34	Aj Reiter / Rose Edwards 3.64 5–3 Roger Dorr / Albert Kraus 3.56 6–2 Aj Reiter / Meaghan Macrae 3.92 4–2 Campbell D'Eliscu / Jack Gerli 3.98 5–1 Sean Segerblom / Rose Edwards 3.93 2–2 Roger Dorr / Haley Shea 3.67 2–0 Campbell D'Eliscu / Rebecca Fung 4.08 2–0 Roger Dorr / Claire Mohun 3.62 0–2 Campbell D'Eliscu / Jack Chrysler 3.89 0–2 Roger Dorr / Rebecca Fung 3.77 1–1	72%	9–5 (64%)	−1.1
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	2	11.49 school +0.21	Charles Miller / Kyle Easton 3.25 8–3 Greiner Hobbs / Anna Flaherty 3.92 4–5 Greiner Hobbs / Christopher Manson-Hing 3.96 5–1 Hector Guzman / Noah Barrengos Barrengos 4.00 5–1 Hector Guzman / Christopher Manson-Hing 4.01 3–2 Charles Miller / Lindsey Kloc 3.40 1–3 Hector Guzman / Maya Weber 3.98 1–3	72%	9–6 (60%)	−1.8
5	George Washington University Colonials	4	10.84 school −0.07	Brendan Shanahan / Isabel Strachan 3.83 6–5 Andrew Sheerin / Connor West 3.16 5–3 Kai Friesecke / Edward D'Eliscu 3.79 5–3 Andrew Sheerin / Edward D'Eliscu 3.34 3–4 Kai Friesecke / Miranda Bakos 3.77 2–2 Brendan Shanahan / Andreea Rainey-Pace 3.90 2–2 Kai Friesecke / Mercedes Mcphee 3.81 1–2	57%	8–7 (53%)	−0.6
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7	9.91 school +0.52	Liam Mccarthy / Greer Wattson 3.13 5–7 Kyle Burgess / Kate Bjerregaard 3.02 3–5 Jonathan Lutz / Patrick Tara 3.21 3–5 Kyle Burgess / Julia Monro 2.87 2–2 Jonathan Lutz / Kate Bjerregaard 3.20 2–2 Kyle Burgess / Shelby Jacobs 3.19 1–1 Jonathan Lutz / Elizabeth Dennison 3.36 1–1 Liam Mccarthy / Hannah Chapman 3.16 1–1	38%	6–8 (43%)	+0.7
7	Fordham University Rams	5	10.02 school +0.06	Alecsander Tayler / Katherine Jones 3.46 3–7 Matt Cappetta / Lauren Holderman 3.04 3–7 Will Holz / Charlotte Leclue 3.43 2–6 Will Holz / Lauren Holderman 3.48 2–2 Alecsander Tayler / William Dumke 3.48 2–2 Matt Cappetta / Katherine Jones 2.98 2–2 Will Holz / Makena Masterson 3.46 1–1	40%	5–9 (36%)	−0.6
8	Hampton University Pirates	8	8.67	Maximilian Kuester / Dario Abou Rjeili 3.18 Filip Stevanovic / Elisabeth Kuester Luca Taglialegne / Miles Braden 3.09	13%	0–14 (0%)	−1.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Old Dominion University	10.01	11.35	10–5	5.8	+1.34	4.0	2%
1	U. S. Naval Academy	11.09	11.45	11–4	10.0	+0.37	0.3	39%
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.91	10.17	6–8	5.3	+0.26	0.1	43%
5	George Washington University	10.84	10.65	8–7	8.6	−0.19	0.1	73%
7	Fordham University	10.02	9.80	5–9	5.6	−0.22	0.1	74%
3	Georgetown University	11.34	10.92	9–5	10.1	−0.42	0.3	85%
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	11.49	10.89	9–6	10.8	−0.59	0.8	91%
8	Hampton University	8.67	5.67	0–14	1.9	≤−3.00	2.8	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Jeremy Herrin	Old Dominion University	3.73	5.07	10–5	5.8	+1.34	4.0	2%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	3.81	4.18	11–4	10.0	+0.37	0.3	39%
Gary Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	3.77	4.14	11–4	10.0	+0.37	0.3	39%
Kyle Burgess	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.02	3.28	6–8	5.3	+0.26	0.1	43%
Andrew Sheerin	George Washington University	3.16	2.97	8–7	8.6	−0.19	0.1	73%
Brendan Shanahan	George Washington University	3.83	3.64	8–7	8.6	−0.19	0.1	73%
Will Holz	Fordham University	3.43	3.21	5–9	5.6	−0.22	0.1	74%
Alecsander Tayler	Fordham University	3.46	3.24	5–9	5.6	−0.22	0.1	74%
Aj Reiter	Georgetown University	3.64	3.22	9–5	10.1	−0.42	0.3	85%
Charles Miller	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.25	2.65	9–6	10.8	−0.59	0.8	91%
Maximilian Kuester	Hampton University	3.18	0.18	0–14	1.9	≤−3.00	2.8	>99%
Filip Stevanovic	Hampton University	1.99	-1.01	0–14	1.9	≤−3.00	2.8	>99%
Luca Taglialegne	Hampton University	3.09	0.09	0–14	1.9	≤−3.00	2.8	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Naval Academy	Hampton University	95%
1	2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	78%
1	3	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	27%	upset
1	4	Georgetown University	Fordham University	84%
1	5	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	42%	upset
1	6	George Washington University	Hampton University	93%
1	7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	43%	upset
1	8	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	24%	upset
1	9	George Washington University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	38%	upset
1	10	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	73%
1	11	Old Dominion University	Hampton University	84%
1	12	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	81%
1	13	Fordham University	George Washington University	33%	upset
1	14	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	19%	upset
1	15	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
1	16	Georgetown University	Hampton University	93%
1	17	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	49%	upset
1	18	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	69%
1	19	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Hampton University	94%
1	20	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	46%	upset
1	21	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	52%
1	22	Fordham University	Hampton University	79%
1	23	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	57%
1	24	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Georgetown University	52%
1	25	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hampton University	77%
1	26	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	26%	upset
1	27	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	81%
1	28	George Washington University	Georgetown University	29%	upset
2	29	U. S. Naval Academy	Hampton University	92%
2	30	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	22%	upset
2	31	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	27%	upset
2	32	Georgetown University	Fordham University	84%
2	33	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	42%	upset
2	34	George Washington University	Hampton University	90%
2	35	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	43%	upset
2	36	Old Dominion University	Georgetown University	24%	upset
2	37	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	63%
2	38	Fordham University	U. S. Naval Academy	27%	upset
2	39	Old Dominion University	Hampton University	80%
2	40	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	81%
2	41	George Washington University	Fordham University	67%
2	42	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	82%
2	43	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
2	44	Georgetown University	Hampton University	92%
2	45	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	51%
2	46	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	70%
2	47	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Hampton University	94%
2	48	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	54%
2	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	48%	upset
2	50	Fordham University	Hampton University	76%
2	51	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	43%	upset
2	52	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	48%	upset
2	53	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hampton University	74%
2	54	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	74%
2	55	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	82%
2	56	Georgetown University	George Washington University	70%
2	57	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	74%
2	58	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	63%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Hoyas	Statesmen	Colonials	Seahawks	Rams	Pirates
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	7–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	3–4	L	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4–3	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	4–3	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Hampton University Pirates	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Hoyas	Statesmen	Colonials	Seahawks	Rams	Pirates
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–3	✕	W	L	W	L	W	L	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–5	L	✕	W	L	W	L	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5–3	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	4–4	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–3	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	3–4	W	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Hampton University Pirates	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Pirates	3-5-6
2	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
3	Monarchs	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
4	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
5	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
6	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Pirates	3-4-5
7	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
8	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
9	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
10	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
11	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Pirates	1-5-6
12	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
13	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
14	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
15	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
16	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Pirates	3-4-6
17	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
18	Colonials	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
19	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Pirates	4-5-6
20	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
21	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
22	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Pirates	3-4-6 DNF
23	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
24	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
25	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Pirates	3-4-6
26	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
27	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
28	Colonials	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
29	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Pirates	3-5-6
30	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
31	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Colonials	2-5-6
32	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
33	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
34	Colonials	2-3-5	def.	Pirates	1-4-6
35	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
36	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
37	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
38	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
39	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Pirates	4-5-6
40	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
41	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
42	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
43	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
44	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Pirates	4-5-6
45	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
46	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
47	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Pirates	4-5-6
48	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
49	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
50	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Pirates	3-4-5
51	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
52	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
53	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Pirates	3-5-6
54	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
55	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
56	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
57	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
58	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gary Prieto '18 Michael Madigan '17 Patrick Snow '17 Peter Hogan '18	Ana Mier '19 Molly Hanson '17 Mary Robertson '17 Mary Morocco '19 Brittney Slook '20
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Jack Elkin '19 James Jacob '18 Jeremy Herrin '18	Gabriel Smith '17 Stephen Guglielmo '19 Dane Pedersen '19 Carter Little '18
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 Campbell D'Eliscu '19 Roger Dorr '18 Sean Segerblom '20	Rose Edwards '18 Meaghan Macrae '18 Jack Gerli '17 Jack Chrysler '20 Rebecca Fung '19 Albert Kraus '17 Claire Mohun '19 Haley Shea '19
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Miller '19 Greiner Hobbs '18 Hector Guzman '20	Lindsey Kloc '19 Kyle Easton '20 Anna Flaherty '20 Christopher Manson-Hing '19 Maya Weber '20 Noah Barrengos Barrengos '18
George Washington University	Colonials	Andrew Sheerin '19 Brendan Shanahan '17 Kai Friesecke '18	Connor West '19 Edward D'Eliscu '20 Isabel Strachan '18 Andreea Rainey-Pace '20 Miranda Bakos '18 Mercedes Mcphee '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Jonathan Lutz '17 Kyle Burgess '17 Liam Mccarthy '19	Patrick Tara '17 Elizabeth Dennison '17 Kate Bjerregaard '19 Shelby Jacobs '17 Julia Monro '17 Greer Wattson '17 Hannah Chapman '17
Fordham University	Rams	Alecsander Tayler '17 Matt Cappetta '19 Will Holz '17	Katherine Jones '18 William Dumke '20 Lauren Holderman '18 Makena Masterson '19 Charlotte Leclue '19
Hampton University	Pirates	Filip Stevanovic '20 Luca Taglialegne '20 Maximilian Kuester '18	Elisabeth Kuester '19 Miles Braden '17 Dario Abou Rjeili '20

Conditions — 04/08/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 39% · Pressure 1009.5 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.0 kn

avg · max 13.2 kn

Gusts to 27.8 kn

From WNW (300°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover15% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity39% Pressure1009.5 hPa

What this breeze does at NY Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at NY Maritime in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at NY Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled fleet-race days at NY Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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