St. Mary's College of Maryland '17
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 7.37 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.089 rating points from 129 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.46 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 48 | Fall 2015 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.27 (fleet 3.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 44–19 (70%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 5–7 |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 5–4 |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 12–2 |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | — | 19–3 |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | — | 3–3 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (63 matches) the record is 44–19 against 40.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-08 | Prosser Trophy | crew | 3.13 | 3.20 | 5–7 | 4.8 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2016-03-26 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 3.55 | 3.49 | 5–4 | 5.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2015-04-11 | Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | crew | 3.57 | 4.67 | 12–2 | 9.9 | +1.10 | 1.5 | 15% |
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | crew | 3.85 | 4.69 | 10–2 | 8.7 | +0.84 | 0.8 | 27% |
| 2014-03-01 | The Tom Noble Team Race | crew | 3.27 | 3.34 | 9–1 | 8.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | crew | 2.96 | 2.81 | 3–3 | 3.2 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.1 | 2.59 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.1 | 3.73 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 12.0 | 2.54 |
| Prosser Trophy | Crew | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| ODU Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.9 | 2.85 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.9 | 4.05 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 15 | 6.9 | 3.57 |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 2.9 | 4.04 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.9 | 2.48 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.9 | 2.57 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.2 | 3.14 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 10.1 | 2.75 |
| War Memorial Backup | Crew | B | 6 | 7.7 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.1 | 2.10 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.0 | 3.90 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.1 | 3.65 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.8 | 3.37 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.9 | 3.06 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.9 | 2.44 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.6 | 2.73 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.4 | 3.08 |
| MAISA Women’s Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.9 | 2.68 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.4 | 2.72 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Crew | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.2 | 2.99 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 12.1 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.7 | 3.17 |
| Radial Open Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.1 | 1.91 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | C | 10 | 7.9 | 2.10 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championships Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.8 | 2.45 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | A, B | 5 | 6.4 | — |
| ODU Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.2 | 2.95 |
| Navy Spring | Crew | A | 9 | 11.3 | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Crew | B | 8 | 6.6 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.5 | 1.94 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.8 | 2.36 |
| Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy | Crew | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 10.0 | — |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Crew | B | 7 | 7.7 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.5 | 2.70 |
| Radial Open Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | 2.94 |
| Faye Bennet MAISA Women's Singles Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.2 | 1.75 |
| Danmark Trophy | Crew | B | 13 | 12.2 | — |
| Central Fall Qualifer | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.3 | 1.86 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 7.5 | 3.61 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| The Tom Noble Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Crew | A | 18 | 10.7 | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Crew | TR | 21 | 86% | — |
| Navy Women's Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 11.4 | — |
| MAISA Women's Championship Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 6.7 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 12.5 | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 11.5 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.4 | 1.88 |
| South #1 Dinghy Qualifier | Crew | B | 8 | 3.5 | — |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Crew | B | 4 | 9.0 | — |
| Radial Open Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.0 | 2.15 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Crew | A | 9 | 3.8 | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
