Radial Open

Women's
HostNavy
Date09/14/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Mary Hall '15	69
2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Arielle Delisser '14	81
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Marissa Lihan '14	93
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Brooke Lyon '14	123
5	Old Dominion University	Andrea Luna '15	127
6	Hampton University	Giuditta Di Laghi '16	139
7	Georgetown University	Merritt Moran '14	149
8	Georgetown University	Madeline Higgins '16	171
9	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Greer Wattson '17	180
10	U. S. Naval Academy	Hannah Hughes '17	183
11	Old Dominion University	Rachel Austin '14	200
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Adele Huffine '14	200
13	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Carolyn Smith '17	202
14	U. S. Naval Academy	Emma Ferris '15	207
15	Old Dominion University	Corina Radtke '14	216
16	University of Virginia	Eliza Schuett '17	261
17	U. S. Naval Academy	Mary Robertson '17	267
18	St. John's College	Maryellen Markuske '15	297
19	Georgetown University	Nancy Hagood '14	311
20	University of Virginia	Lara Schechter Vera '16	325

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	R17	R18	TOT
U. S. Naval Academy	Mary Hall '15	3	1	1	1	6	3	2	8	1	1	1	2	3	5	11	8	9	3	69
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Arielle Delisser '14	6	7	4	5	2	2	13	6	3	2	2	1	1	13	10	2	1	1	81
U. S. Naval Academy	Marissa Lihan '14	1	10	5	19	5	4	3	4	6	4	6	4	7	1	4	5	3	2	93
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Brooke Lyon '14	13	11	18	15	7	1	9	3	8	7	4	5	8	3	1	3	2	5	123
Old Dominion University	Andrea Luna '15	16	2	2	4	3	17	1	12	5	3	13	6	6	11	7	1	7	11	127
Hampton University	Giuditta Di Laghi '16	15	13	6	6	13	15	4	10	2	6	9	3	5	7	2	4	13	6	139
Georgetown University	Merritt Moran '14	2	14	7	8	10	5	19	14	12	5	5	8	10	4	6	10	6	4	149
Georgetown University	Madeline Higgins '16	5	3	14	12	16	13	10	2	13	11	12	11	13	6	3	6	12	9	171
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Greer Wattson '17	19	6	17	13	14	12	5	1	7	9	3	7	19	12	5	11	8	12	180
U. S. Naval Academy	Hannah Hughes '17	11	12	3	10	9	8	12	18	15	12	14	9	4	15	8	12	4	7	183
Old Dominion University	Rachel Austin '14	7	4	13	16	4	7	8	13	9	15	15	18	9	14	9	OCS	10	8	200
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Adele Huffine '14	8	9	15	9	8	10	7	9	11	16	10	12	15	10	15	7	14	15	200
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Carolyn Smith '17	9	18	10	2	12	6	15	19	16	10	7	19	2	8	13	9	11	16	202
U. S. Naval Academy	Emma Ferris '15	14	5	12	7	20	9	6	5	10	13	11	10	11	16	12	OCS	15	10	207
Old Dominion University	Corina Radtke '14	12	8	11	18	15	14	14	15	4	8	16	13	12	9	14	14	5	14	216
University of Virginia	Eliza Schuett '17	10	16	16	20	18	11	11	17	14	14	18	14	16	2	16	13	17	18	261
U. S. Naval Academy	Mary Robertson '17	18	15	9	3	11	16	16	16	17	19	17	15	14	19	18	15	16	13	267
St. John's College	Maryellen Markuske '15	20	17	20	17	17	20	18	7	18	17	8	16	17	17	17	16	18	17	297
Georgetown University	Nancy Hagood '14	4	BKD	8	11	1	18	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	311
University of Virginia	Lara Schechter Vera '16	17	20	19	14	19	19	17	11	19	18	19	17	18	18	19	OCS	19	DNF	325

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 20 boats · 18 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Mary Hall '15	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	18/18	2.92	3.61	+0.69	79th → 92nd	2.6	4%	3.8 / 6.7
2	Arielle Delisser '14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	18/18	2.52	3.31	+0.79	65th → 87th	3.5	4%	4.5 / 7.9
3	Marissa Lihan '14	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	18/18	2.38	2.94	+0.56	61st → 81st	1.8	6%	5.2 / 8.2
4	Brooke Lyon '14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	18/18	1.90	2.42	+0.52	48th → 62nd	1.6	9%	6.8 / 9.6
5	Andrea Luna '15	Old Dominion University Big Blue	18/18	2.05	2.40	+0.34	53rd → 61st	0.8	17%	7.1 / 9.2
6	Giuditta Di Laghi '16	Hampton University	18/18	1.46	2.35	+0.90	36th → 60th	4.8	7%	7.7 / 11.0
7	Merritt Moran '14	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	18/18	1.78	2.00	+0.22	43rd → 52nd	0.3	26%	8.3 / 10.1
8	Madeline Higgins '16	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	18/18	1.12	1.93	+0.81	25th → 48th	4.0	12%	9.5 / 12.0
9	Greer Wattson '17	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	18/18	1.46	1.45	−0.02	36th → 35th	0.0	38%	10.0 / 10.9
10	Hannah Hughes '17	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4	18/18	1.61	1.73	+0.12	40th → 43rd	0.1	46%	10.2 / 10.5
11	Adele Huffine '14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	18/18	1.28	1.57	+0.29	30th → 39th	0.6	45%	11.1 / 11.5
11	Rachel Austin '14	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	18/18	1.60	1.65	+0.06	40th → 41st	0.0	61%	11.1 / 10.5
13	Carolyn Smith '17	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	18/18	1.89	1.04	−0.85	48th → 24th	5.3	78%	11.2 / 9.6
14	Emma Ferris '15	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	18/18	1.35	1.45	+0.10	32nd → 36th	0.1	53%	11.5 / 11.3
15	Corina Radtke '14	Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	18/18	1.80	1.34	−0.46	44th → 31st	1.7	83%	12.0 / 10.0
16	Eliza Schuett '17	University of Virginia Wahoos 1	18/18	0.45	0.61	+0.16	13th → 15th	0.2	59%	14.5 / 13.7
17	Mary Robertson '17	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 5	18/18	1.63	0.34	−1.29	40th → 11th	13.6	95%	14.8 / 10.4
18	Maryellen Markuske '15	St. John's College	18/18	-0.90	0.07	+0.97	1st → 7th	4.4	39%	16.5 / 16.8
19	Nancy Hagood '14	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	18/18	2.45	1.88	−0.58	62nd → 47th	0.7	>99%	17.5 / 8.0
20	Lara Schechter Vera '16	University of Virginia Wahoos 2	18/18	1.06^u	-0.61	−1.67	24th → 2nd	16.5	99%	18.1 / 12.1

Conditions — 09/14/2013 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 45% · Pressure 1018.1 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 69°F ↓ 61°F

Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.3 kn

avg · max 8.5 kn

Gusts to 18.7 kn

From NNW (333°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover59% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1018.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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