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Navy Fall Women's

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B C TOT
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 49 39 88 176
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 71 73 36 180
3 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 63 76 67 206
4 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 70 57 85 212
5 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 103 61 89 253
6 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 89 84 89 262
7 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 97 97 69 263
8 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 80 102 116 298
9 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 165 125 70 360
10 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 129 121 129 379
11 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 106 157 137 400
12 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 112 174 123 409
13 Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 140 132 167 439
14 University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 221 MRP 214 MRP 220 MRP 655 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 5 1 4 1 4 1 5 4 5 2 4 3 8 2 49 Casey Klingler '18 [1-14]
Natalya Doris '17 [1-9]
Claire Huebner '18 [10-14]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 10 1 2 1 3 2 2 1 5 8 6 10 10 63 Rose Edwards '18
Emily Fung '17
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 10 7 5 3 5 5 6 1 6 4 3 7 4 4 70 Carolyn Smith '17 [1-14]
Vera Mariani '20 [1-9]
Grace Papp '20 [10-14]
Brown University Brown University Bears 6 3 8 6 6 6 9 12 7 1 1 4 1 1 71 Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick '17 [1-14]
Haley Carter '17 [1-9]
Maxine De Havenon '19 [10-14]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 11 2 5 2 2 1 8 3 9 10 9 9 8 80 Bailey Carter '19 [1-14]
Emily Lorimer '20 [1-9]
Erin Condon '17 [10-14]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 3 5 3 8 12 12 10 6 9 3 2 5 6 5 89 Julia Lambert '18 [1-3, 7-14]
Maeve White '17 [4-6]
Madeline Bubb '20 [1-3, 7-9]
Meg Gerli '19 [4-6, 10-14]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 9 4 9 4 3 9 4 7 2 10 9 2 12 13 97 Hannah Hughes '17 [1-14]
Sarah Barkley '19 [1-9, 13-14]
Brittney Slook '20 [10-12]
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 8 2 7 7 10 7 8 5 4 7 6 10 11 11 103 Miranda Bakos '18 [1-14]
Isabel Strachan '18 [1-9]
Emma Mendenhall '19 [10-14]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 6 6 11 9 13 11 10 8 6 5 8 3 6 106 Elise Gehling '17
Laura Tschiegg '17
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 12 9 13 10 7 8 7 9 12 8 7 1 2 7 112 Kate Klement '17
Korina Hendricks '17
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 7 8 10 12 11 10 12 3 11 11 12 12 7 3 129 Adelaide Ferguson '17
Annika Ekholm '20
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 11 13 12 13 13 4 3 11 10 12 13 11 5 9 140 Samara Leith '19 [1-14]
Laura Kilgore '17 [1-9]
Kaitlyn Reilly '18 [10-14]
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 13 12 11 9 8 11 13 13 13 13 11 13 13 12 165 Rachel Yannelli '19 [1-3, 13-14]
Megan Hostetter '19 [4-12]
Megan Hostetter '19 [1-3, 13-14]
Rachel Yannelli '19 [4-12]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 221 MRP Rachel Finci '17
Sarah Hamm '13
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 2 1 1 4 1 1 2 1 4 6 5 1 3 7 39 Louisa Nordstrom '20 [1-14]
Isabelle Rossi De Leon '17 [1-9]
Natalya Doris '17 [10-14]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 5 3 2 4 6 6 7 6 4 3 2 4 1 57 Greer Wattson '17 [1-14]
Elizabeth Dennison '17 [1-9]
Kate Bjerregaard '19 [10-14]
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 11 6 6 2 4 1 5 7 2 1 5 5 3 61 Riley Legault '19 [1-14]
Madison Oleson '17 [1-9]
Kia Olsson '18 [10-14]
Brown University Brown University Bears 7 2 8 7 3 3 3 6 5 10 9 4 2 4 73 Hannah Steadman '20 [1-14]
Abigayle Konys '19 [1-9]
Lauren Haller '18 [10-12]
Maxine De Havenon '19 [13-14]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 13 2 3 8 10 5 8 8 1 4 6 1 2 76 Haddon Hughes '19
Haley Shea '19
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 8 9 9 1 10 5 4 11 3 3 2 3 8 8 84 Maria El-Khazindar '19
Elena Vandenberg '18
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 6 11 9 5 2 7 3 12 9 6 10 7 9 97 Mary Robertson '17 [1-10]
Brittney Slook '20 [11-14]
Molly Hanson '17 [1-10]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 6 4 10 10 7 7 9 2 1 8 11 11 10 6 102 Christine Moloney '17 [1-6, 10-14]
Katherine Cox '20 [7-9]
Katherine Cox '20 [1-6]
Sinead Mcmanus '20 [7-14]
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 12 8 12 8 13 9 8 10 2 11 10 7 6 5 121 Grace Howie '20
Lauren Holderman '18
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 14 3 4 13 9 12 10 4 DSQ 5 8 9 9 10 125 Sylvia Hopkins '20
Delaney Brown '20
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 9 7 7 11 6 8 13 9 10 7 7 8 DNF DNS 132 Anna Patterson '20 [1-14]
Alexis Edwards '20 [1-9]
Mackenzie Conner '20 [10-14]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 11 14 5 5 14 13 12 14 11 12 12 12 11 11 157 Erin Coyne '19
Claire Lockard '18
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 10 10 13 12 11 11 11 12 9 DNF DNF DNS DNS DNS 174 Cailin Considine '19 [1-14]
Olivia Staruck '20 [1-9]
Charlie Childs '19 [10-14]
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 13 12 14 14 12 14 14 13 13 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 214 MRP Natalie Jones '20
Rowan Afflerbach '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 1 2 8 1 5 2 1 6 1 1 4 2 1 36 Lindsey Baab '18
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 5 4 7 3 4 11 2 7 9 2 2 1 6 67 Lola Bushnell '18
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 9 3 2 6 3 10 5 1 6 7 8 3 4 69 Jessica Mcjones '20
University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 5 10 1 1 4 1 1 6 3 10 6 6 BKD 11 70 Sarah Streater '18
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 8 2 5 3 7 13 8 4 13 7 3 3 7 2 85 Ellie Ungar '19
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 10 11 10 6 2 8 6 7 4 4 4 7 6 3 88 Christine Klingler '20
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 4 11 4 5 11 3 13 5 3 8 5 4 10 89 Sarah Alexander '19
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 6 12 8 12 10 2 9 3 9 2 5 1 5 5 89 Haley Fox '18
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 7 3 7 9 9 9 5 8 2 BKD 12 12 12 13 116 Jessica Lietz '20
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 11 7 6 11 11 6 4 12 10 8 10 9 9 9 123 Megan Mcmahon '17
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 9 8 12 5 12 7 12 11 8 5 9 10 13 8 129 Elizabeth Foulston '17
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 14 6 9 10 8 10 7 10 12 12 11 13 8 7 137 Carolyn Corbet '21
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Captains 12 13 13 13 13 12 13 9 11 11 13 11 11 12 167 Amanda Attardi '17
University of Maryland University of Maryland Terps 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 220 MRP Jaimie Martin '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears1112223334445
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains22211114141413131312
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams3334445556667
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials44433322211114
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas5556667778889
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen6665554443332
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps1111111212121313131414141
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen1010109998887776
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies77788899910101011
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls1212121111111010109998
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks8887776665554
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal99910101011111112121213
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1313131414141112223
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs14141413131312121211111110

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears1112223334445
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains22211114141413131312
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams3334445556667
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials44433322211114
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas5556667778889
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen6665554443332
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps1111111212121313131414141
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen1010109998887776
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies77788899910101011
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls1212121111111010109998
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks8887776665554
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal99910101011111112121213
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1313131414141112223
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs14141413131312121211111110

Division C

Team1C2C3C4C5C6C7C8C9C10C11C12C13C
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears1112223334445
Christopher Newport UniversityChristopher Newport University Captains22211114141413131312
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams3334445556667
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials44433322211114
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas5556667778889
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen6665554443332
University of MarylandUniversity of Maryland Terps1111111212121313131414141
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen1010109998887776
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies77788899910101011
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls1212121111111010109998
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks8887776665554
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal99910101011111112121213
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1313131414141112223
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs14141413131312121211111110
School / Team SkipperCrew
Brown University Brown University Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick '17 [1-14] Haley Carter '17 [1-9]
Maxine De Havenon '19 [10-14]
Bears Hannah Steadman '20 [1-14] Abigayle Konys '19 [1-9]
Lauren Haller '18 [10-12]
Maxine De Havenon '19 [13-14]
Lindsey Baab '18
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Samara Leith '19 [1-14] Laura Kilgore '17 [1-9]
Kaitlyn Reilly '18 [10-14]
Captains Anna Patterson '20 [1-14] Alexis Edwards '20 [1-9]
Mackenzie Conner '20 [10-14]
Amanda Attardi '17
Fordham University Fordham University Adelaide Ferguson '17 Annika Ekholm '20
Rams Grace Howie '20 Lauren Holderman '18
Elizabeth Foulston '17
George Washington University George Washington University Miranda Bakos '18 [1-14] Isabel Strachan '18 [1-9]
Emma Mendenhall '19 [10-14]
Colonials Riley Legault '19 [1-14] Madison Oleson '17 [1-9]
Kia Olsson '18 [10-14]
Sarah Alexander '19
Georgetown University Georgetown University Rose Edwards '18 Emily Fung '17
Hoyas Haddon Hughes '19 Haley Shea '19
Lola Bushnell '18
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Bailey Carter '19 [1-14] Emily Lorimer '20 [1-9]
Erin Condon '17 [10-14]
Statesmen Christine Moloney '17 [1-6, 10-14]
Katherine Cox '20 [7-9]		 Katherine Cox '20 [1-6]
Sinead Mcmanus '20 [7-14]
Jessica Lietz '20
Northeastern University Northeastern University Elise Gehling '17 Laura Tschiegg '17
Huskies Erin Coyne '19 Claire Lockard '18
Carolyn Corbet '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Carolyn Smith '17 [1-14] Vera Mariani '20 [1-9]
Grace Papp '20 [10-14]
Seahawks Greer Wattson '17 [1-14] Elizabeth Dennison '17 [1-9]
Kate Bjerregaard '19 [10-14]
Ellie Ungar '19
Stanford University Stanford University Julia Lambert '18 [1-3, 7-14]
Maeve White '17 [4-6]		 Madeline Bubb '20 [1-3, 7-9]
Meg Gerli '19 [4-6, 10-14]
Cardinal Maria El-Khazindar '19 Elena Vandenberg '18
Haley Fox '18
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Hannah Hughes '17 [1-14] Sarah Barkley '19 [1-9, 13-14]
Brittney Slook '20 [10-12]
Midshipmen Mary Robertson '17 [1-10]
Brittney Slook '20 [11-14]		 Molly Hanson '17 [1-10]
Jessica Mcjones '20
University of Maryland University of Maryland Rachel Finci '17 Sarah Hamm '13
Terps Natalie Jones '20 Rowan Afflerbach '19
Jaimie Martin '18
University of South Florida University of South Florida Rachel Yannelli '19 [1-3, 13-14]
Megan Hostetter '19 [4-12]		 Megan Hostetter '19 [1-3, 13-14]
Rachel Yannelli '19 [4-12]
Bulls Sylvia Hopkins '20 Delaney Brown '20
Sarah Streater '18
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Kate Klement '17 Korina Hendricks '17
Badgers Cailin Considine '19 [1-14] Olivia Staruck '20 [1-9]
Charlie Childs '19 [10-14]
Megan Mcmahon '17
Yale University Yale University Casey Klingler '18 [1-14] Natalya Doris '17 [1-9]
Claire Huebner '18 [10-14]
Bulldogs Louisa Nordstrom '20 [1-14] Isabelle Rossi De Leon '17 [1-9]
Natalya Doris '17 [10-14]
Christine Klingler '20

Conditions — 10/08/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌧️Slight rain
Humidity 96%  ·  Pressure 1016.6 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 9.4 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From NE (43°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity96% Pressure1016.6 hPa Rain0.37 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 5 kn · N 18 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Navy: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.09 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.02 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →