Navigate

Navy Fall Women's — Analysis

← Results

* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2016-W40). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,605 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • n no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.
  • — in the performance column means the skipper finished last in every race they sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A  14 boats · 14 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Casey Klingler '18 Yale University 14/14 395* 430 +35 98th → 99th 0.8 22% 3.5 / 4.5 398*
2 Rose Edwards '18 Georgetown University 14/14 293* 372 +79 87th → 96th 4.0 4% 4.5 / 7.0 317*
3 Carolyn Smith '17 St. Mary's College of Maryland 14/14 326* 373 +47 92nd → 96th 1.5 22% 5.0 / 6.2 328*
4 Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick '17 Brown University 14/14 363* 346 -18 96th → 94th 0.2 49% 5.1 / 5.2 364*
5 Bailey Carter '19 Hobart and William Smith Colleges 14/14 326* 323 -3 92nd → 91st 0.0 40% 5.7 / 6.2 326*
6 Julia Lambert '18 Stanford University 11/14 305* 369 +64 89th → 96th 2.2 18% 5.2 / 6.8 316*
6 Maeve White '17 Stanford University 3/14 300* 195 -105 88th → 68th 2.4 93% 10.7 / 6.9 309*
7 Hannah Hughes '17 U. S. Naval Academy 14/14 285* 284 -1 85th → 85th 0.0 42% 6.9 / 7.3 285*
8 Miranda Bakos '18 George Washington University 14/14 320* 297 -22 91st → 88th 0.4 76% 7.4 / 6.3 320*
9 Elise Gehling '17 Northeastern University 14/14 275* 285 +10 84th → 85th 0.1 53% 7.6 / 7.5 276*
10 Kate Klement '17 University of Wisconsin 14/14 274* 250 -23 84th → 79th 0.4 64% 8.0 / 7.5 273*
11 Adelaide Ferguson '17 Fordham University 14/14 275* 222 -53 84th → 74th 2.4 88% 9.2 / 7.5 275*
12 Samara Leith '19 Christopher Newport University 14/14 184* 185 +0 65th → 65th 0.0 58% 10.0 / 9.7 186*
13 Megan Hostetter '19 University of South Florida 9/14 153* 130 -23 58th → 52nd 0.2 74% 11.6 / 10.3 153*
13 Rachel Yannelli '19 University of South Florida 5/14 114* 138 +23 48th → 54th 0.1 74% 12.2 / 11.0 115*
14 Rachel Finci '17 University of Maryland 14/14 -56n* — — 12th → — 2.4 >99% 14.4 / 12.9 -56*

Division B  14 boats · 14 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Louisa Nordstrom '20 Yale University 14/14 376* 418 +41 96th → 99th 1.0 11% 2.8 / 4.2 377*
2 Greer Wattson '17 St. Mary's College of Maryland 14/14 310* 372 +62 89th → 96th 2.6 12% 4.1 / 5.7 310*
3 Riley Legault '19 George Washington University 14/14 296* 351 +55 87th → 95th 2.0 13% 4.4 / 6.0 302*
4 Hannah Steadman '20 Brown University 14/14 337* 307 -30 93rd → 89th 0.7 59% 5.2 / 5.0 337*
5 Haddon Hughes '19 Georgetown University 14/14 320* 282 -38 91st → 85th 1.1 54% 5.4 / 5.4 324*
6 Maria El-Khazindar '19 Stanford University 14/14 299* 273 -26 88th → 83rd 0.5 54% 6.0 / 5.9 297*
7 Mary Robertson '17 U. S. Naval Academy 10/14 234* 251 +16 76th → 79th 0.1 29% 6.5 / 7.5 237*
7 Brittney Slook '20 U. S. Naval Academy 4/14 207* 216 +9 70th → 73rd 0.0 48% 8.0 / 8.1 209*
8 Christine Moloney '17 Hobart and William Smith Colleges 11/14 248* 202 -46 79th → 69th 1.3 76% 8.2 / 7.2 247*
8 Katherine Cox '20 Hobart and William Smith Colleges 3/14 249n* 326 +78 79th → 92nd 0.8 14% 4.0 / 7.2 249*
9 Grace Howie '20 Fordham University 14/14 200* 197 -3 69th → 68th 0.0 57% 8.6 / 8.3 201*
10 Sylvia Hopkins '20 University of South Florida 14/14 163* 168 +5 60th → 61st 0.0 44% 8.9 / 9.2 163*
11 Anna Patterson '20 Christopher Newport University 14/14 193* 214 +21 67th → 72nd 0.3 74% 9.4 / 8.5 193*
12 Erin Coyne '19 Northeastern University 14/14 94* 34 -60 43rd → 30th 1.5 62% 11.2 / 10.6 94*
13 Cailin Considine '19 University of Wisconsin 14/14 146n* 151 +5 56th → 57th 0.0 92% 12.4 / 9.3 146*
14 Natalie Jones '20 University of Maryland 14/14 12* 7 -5 25th → 24th 0.0 99% 13.9 / 12.0 13*

Division C  14 boats · 14 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Lindsey Baab '18 Brown University 14/14 355* 417 +62 95th → 99th 2.2 6% 2.6 / 4.4 356*
2 Lola Bushnell '18 Georgetown University 14/14 271* 315 +44 83rd → 90th 1.4 17% 4.8 / 6.3 287*
3 Jessica Mcjones '20 U. S. Naval Academy 14/14 260* 314 +54 81st → 90th 2.0 15% 4.9 / 6.6 265*
4 Sarah Streater '18 University of South Florida 14/14 305* 291 -14 89th → 87th 0.1 62% 5.7 / 5.4 306*
5 Ellie Ungar '19 St. Mary's College of Maryland 14/14 226* 247 +22 75th → 79th 0.3 20% 6.1 / 7.4 241*
6 Christine Klingler '20 Yale University 14/14 311* 263 -48 90th → 82nd 2.1 70% 6.3 / 5.4 310*
7 Haley Fox '18 Stanford University 14/14 238* 255 +17 77th → 80th 0.2 33% 6.4 / 7.1 246*
7 Sarah Alexander '19 George Washington University 14/14 229* 247 +18 75th → 79th 0.2 28% 6.4 / 7.4 230*
9 Jessica Lietz '20 Hobart and William Smith Colleges 14/14 214n* 187 -27 72nd → 66th 0.5 72% 8.8 / 7.7 214*
9 Megan Mcmahon '17 University of Wisconsin 14/14 161* 207 +46 59th → 70th 1.6 45% 8.8 / 9.0 188*
11 Elizabeth Foulston '17 Fordham University 14/14 125* 188 +62 51st → 66th 2.6 36% 9.2 / 9.7 175*
12 Carolyn Corbet '21 Northeastern University 14/14 181n* 148 -32 64th → 56th 0.7 69% 9.8 / 8.3 181*
13 Amanda Attardi '17 Christopher Newport University 14/14 195* 84 -111 68th → 41st 10.0 >99% 11.9 / 8.2 193*
14 Jaimie Martin '18 University of Maryland 14/14 -37n* -124 -88 16th → 3rd 0.7 >99% 14.3 / 12.1 -37*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →