Brown University '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.79 (fleet 3.87) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 39–34 (53%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 9–3 | — |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 6–12 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 6–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 11–7 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 7–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (73 matches) the record is 39–34 against 48.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−9.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | Duplin Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.39 | 3.38 | 9–3 | 9.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2016-11-05 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.36 | 2.30 | 6–12 | 10.6 | −1.06 | 3.5 | 99% |
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 3.14 | 3.32 | 6–4 | 5.6 | +0.18 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 3.22 | 2.43 | 11–7 | 13.7 | −0.79 | 1.6 | 96% |
| 2014-11-08 | The Mike Horn Trophy | skipper | 2.85 | 1.83 | 7–8 | 10.0 | −1.02 | 2.2 | 98% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.9 | 3.99 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.8 | 5.22 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.4 | 3.81 |
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.5 | 4.29 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.3 | 4.05 |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 17 | 6.4 | 4.27 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.8 | 4.08 |
| Gill Coed College Sailing National Championship | Skipper | B | 15 | 11.3 | 3.53 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.3 | 3.28 |
| Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.9 | 4.99 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.1 | 3.92 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.5 | 2.66 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.7 | 3.75 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.5 | 4.38 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.1 | 3.57 |
| Harry Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.1 | 3.55 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.0 | 3.15 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.1 | 3.59 |
| 34th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.6 | 2.79 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.0 | 3.15 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.2 | 3.69 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.1 | 3.79 |
| Southern Series 7 | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.0 | 2.52 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.4 | 3.65 |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.5 | 2.79 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.6 | 2.94 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 1 | 18.0 | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.4 | 4.54 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.6 | 4.21 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 1.8 | 5.62 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | 2.61 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.4 | 3.74 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.3 | 3.84 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.0 | 3.58 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.0 | 4.47 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.8 | 3.71 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | 3.90 |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.7 | 3.98 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.0 | 3.95 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.4 | 2.85 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.9 | 2.84 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.6 | 2.40 |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.7 | 2.81 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.9 | 2.80 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.2 | 3.18 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 7.3 | 3.20 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.5 | 4.24 |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.9 | 2.68 |
| Southern Series 1 @ SRU | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.3 | 3.54 |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 6.1 | 3.31 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.2 | 3.38 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.3 | 4.12 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.8 | 3.17 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.1 | 3.62 |
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.3 | 3.12 |
| Toni Deutsch Trophy (women's) Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.5 | 3.00 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.5 | 3.41 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.3 | 2.03 |
| Providence College Invite | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.6 | 2.78 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.9 | 2.73 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
