Hap Moore Team Race

HostConnecticut College
Date11/05/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Boston College	Eagles	13–5
2	Tufts University	Jumbos	10–8
3	Harvard University	Crimson	9–9
4	Connecticut College	Camels	9–9
5	Roger Williams University	Hawks	8–10
6	Boston University	Terriers	8–10
7	Brown University	Bears	6–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 7,276 team race matches sailed before 2016-11-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 29 of 63 matches (46%) with a log-loss of 0.699 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.61 ± 0.61: a typical event, more orderly than 8% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Boston College Eagles	1	10.17 school +0.28	Harry Koeppel / Katharine Bowman 3.71 Maxwell Simmons / Emma Perry 3.35 9–3 Wade Waddell / Eliza Wright 3.00 9–3 Drake Lyon / Kendall Van Horne 8–4	60%	13–5 (72%)	+2.2
2	Tufts University Jumbos	5	9.69 school +0.16	Alexander Tong / Lara Dienemann 3.40 Jack Bitney / Natalie Danziger 3.18 Cameron Holley / Leah Fletcher 2.88	46%	10–8 (56%)	+1.7
3	Harvard University Crimson	6	9.53 school −0.20	Nick Sertl / Christine Gosioco 3.58 4–2 Nick Digiovanni / Catherine Tang 2.99 4–2 Jackson Wagner / Julia Lord 3.06 4–2 Nick Sertl / Nomin-Erdene Jagdagdorj 3.65 3–3 Nick Digiovanni / Julia Lord 3.17 3–3 Jackson Wagner / Christine Gosioco 2.90 3–3 Nick Sertl / Catherine Tang 3.58 1–2 Nick Digiovanni / Christine Gosioco 3.01 1–2 Jackson Wagner / Nomin-Erdene Jagdagdorj 2.96 1–2 Nick Sertl / Julia Lord 3.76 1–2 Nick Digiovanni / Nomin-Erdene Jagdagdorj 3.07 1–2 Jackson Wagner / Catherine Tang 2.90 1–2	42%	9–9 (50%)	+1.5
4	Connecticut College Camels	4	9.71 school +0.11, home +0.24	Hugh Macgillivray / Eliza Garry 3.60 Carter Pemberton / Paige Dunlevy Cooper Nefsky / Marion Lemay 2.20 2–4 Ragna Agerup / Albert Rodiger 5–1 Ragna Agerup / Cooper Nefsky 1–2 Cooper Nefsky / Erin Smith 2.46 1–2	47%	9–9 (50%)	+0.6
5	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	10.14 school +0.09	Martim Anderson / Rebecca Anderson 3.57 Mackenzie Bryan / Jennifer Agell 3.40 Michael Gemperline / Beatrice Bellacosa 3.02	56%	8–10 (44%)	−2.0
6	Boston University Terriers	7	9.56 school −0.23	Ravi Parent / Hannah Davis 3.59 Hannah Polster / Allison Cahn 3.21 Robby Gearon / Lexi Pline	41%	8–10 (44%)	+0.7
7	Brown University Bears	2	10.18 school +0.25	Patrick Shanahan / Emily Ito 3.47 Sam Alexander / Marina Cano 3.01 Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick / Haley Carter 3.36	59%	6–12 (33%)	−4.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Boston College	10.17	10.72	13–5	10.8	+0.55	0.8	21%
2	Tufts University	9.69	10.08	10–8	8.3	+0.39	0.5	28%
3	Harvard University	9.53	9.86	9–9	7.5	+0.34	0.4	32%
6	Boston University	9.56	9.72	8–10	7.3	+0.16	0.1	46%
4	Connecticut College	9.71	9.84	9–9	8.4	+0.13	0.1	48%
5	Roger Williams University	10.14	9.68	8–10	10.0	−0.46	0.7	89%
7	Brown University	10.18	9.11	6–12	10.6	−1.06	3.5	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Maxwell Simmons	Boston College	3.35	4.05	9–3	7.2	+0.70	0.9	23%
Wade Waddell	Boston College	3.00	3.57	9–3	7.6	+0.58	0.6	29%
Harry Koeppel	Boston College	3.71	4.26	13–5	10.8	+0.55	0.8	21%
Drake Lyon	Boston College	2.56	2.96	8–4	6.9	+0.40	0.3	36%
Alexander Tong	Tufts University	3.40	3.79	10–8	8.3	+0.39	0.5	28%
Nick Digiovanni	Harvard University	2.99	3.33	9–9	7.5	+0.34	0.4	32%
Ravi Parent	Boston University	3.59	3.75	8–10	7.3	+0.16	0.1	46%
Hannah Polster	Boston University	3.21	3.37	8–10	7.3	+0.16	0.1	46%
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	3.57	3.11	8–10	10.0	−0.46	0.7	89%
Michael Gemperline	Roger Williams University	3.02	2.56	8–10	10.0	−0.46	0.7	89%
Cooper Nefsky	Connecticut College	2.20	1.68	3–6	4.1	−0.52	0.4	86%
Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick	Brown University	3.36	2.30	6–12	10.6	−1.06	3.5	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	Connecticut College	48%	upset
1	2	Brown University	Boston University	70%
1	3	Boston College	Roger Williams University	56%
1	4	Connecticut College	Tufts University	41%	upset
1	5	Brown University	Harvard University	64%
1	6	Boston University	Boston College	25%	upset
1	7	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	61%
1	8	Connecticut College	Brown University	41%	upset
1	9	Boston College	Harvard University	57%
1	10	Boston University	Roger Williams University	33%	upset
1	11	Tufts University	Brown University	38%	upset
1	12	Connecticut College	Boston College	41%	upset
1	13	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	64%
1	14	Tufts University	Boston University	55%
1	15	Boston College	Brown University	47%	upset
1	16	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	43%	upset
1	17	Harvard University	Boston University	50%	upset
1	18	Tufts University	Boston College	40%	upset
1	19	Roger Williams University	Brown University	49%	upset
1	20	Boston University	Connecticut College	47%	upset
1	21	Harvard University	Tufts University	47%	upset
2	22	Harvard University	Connecticut College	43%	upset
2	23	Brown University	Boston University	65%
2	24	Boston College	Roger Williams University	60%
2	25	Tufts University	Connecticut College	55%
2	26	Brown University	Harvard University	65%
2	27	Boston College	Boston University	72%
2	28	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	39%	upset
2	29	Connecticut College	Brown University	44%	upset
2	30	Harvard University	Boston College	38%	upset
2	31	Roger Williams University	Boston University	63%
2	32	Tufts University	Brown University	38%	upset
2	33	Boston College	Connecticut College	60%
2	34	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	36%	upset
2	35	Boston University	Tufts University	48%	upset
2	36	Boston College	Brown University	49%	upset
2	37	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	45%	upset
2	38	Boston University	Harvard University	52%
2	39	Boston College	Tufts University	61%
2	40	Roger Williams University	Brown University	49%	upset
2	41	Boston University	Connecticut College	48%	upset
2	42	Harvard University	Tufts University	47%	upset
3	43	Connecticut College	Harvard University	58%
3	44	Boston University	Brown University	37%	upset
3	45	Boston College	Roger Williams University	61%
3	46	Tufts University	Connecticut College	53%
3	47	Harvard University	Brown University	35%	upset
3	48	Boston College	Boston University	72%
3	49	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	39%	upset
3	50	Connecticut College	Brown University	45%	upset
3	51	Boston College	Harvard University	63%
3	52	Roger Williams University	Boston University	62%
3	53	Brown University	Tufts University	62%
3	54	Boston College	Connecticut College	60%
3	55	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	63%
3	56	Boston University	Tufts University	49%	upset
3	57	Boston College	Brown University	49%	upset
3	58	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	53%
3	59	Harvard University	Boston University	47%	upset
3	60	Tufts University	Boston College	38%	upset
3	61	Brown University	Roger Williams University	52%
3	62	Connecticut College	Boston University	51%
3	63	Tufts University	Harvard University	52%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Jumbos	Crimson	Camels	Hawks	Terriers	Bears
Boston College Eagles	3–3	✕	L	W	L	W	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–3	W	✕	L	L	L	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	3–3	L	W	✕	W	L	W	L
Connecticut College Camels	4–2	W	W	L	✕	W	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–3	L	W	W	L	✕	L	W
Boston University Terriers	3–3	W	L	L	W	W	✕	L
Brown University Bears	2–4	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Jumbos	Crimson	Camels	Hawks	Terriers	Bears
Boston College Eagles	5–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–3	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W
Harvard University Crimson	4–2	W	W	✕	W	W	L	L
Connecticut College Camels	2–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Boston University Terriers	3–3	L	W	W	W	L	✕	L
Brown University Bears	2–4	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Jumbos	Crimson	Camels	Hawks	Terriers	Bears
Boston College Eagles	5–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–2	W	✕	W	W	W	L	L
Harvard University Crimson	2–4	L	L	✕	L	L	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	3–3	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–3	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L
Boston University Terriers	2–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W
Brown University Bears	2–4	L	W	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
2	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
3	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
4	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
5	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
6	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
7	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
8	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
9	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
10	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
11	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
12	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
13	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
14	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
15	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
16	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
17	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
18	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
19	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
20	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
21	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
22	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Camels	2-4-5
23	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
24	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
25	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
26	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
27	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
28	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
29	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
30	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
31	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
32	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
33	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
34	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
35	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
36	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
37	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
38	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
39	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
40	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
41	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
42	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
43	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
44	Terriers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
45	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
46	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Camels	2-5-6
47	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
48	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
49	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
50	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
51	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
52	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
53	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
54	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
55	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
56	Terriers	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
57	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
58	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
59	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
60	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
61	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
62	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
63	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Boston College	Eagles	Drake Lyon '18 Harry Koeppel '17 Maxwell Simmons '17 Wade Waddell '19	Kendall Van Horne '19 Katharine Bowman '20 Emma Perry '19 Eliza Wright '20
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alexander Tong '17 Cameron Holley '19 Jack Bitney '19	Lara Dienemann '18 Leah Fletcher '17 Natalie Danziger '17
Harvard University	Crimson	Jackson Wagner '19 Nick Digiovanni '19 Nick Sertl '18	Julia Lord '17 Christine Gosioco '19 Nomin-Erdene Jagdagdorj '17 Catherine Tang '19
Connecticut College	Camels	Carter Pemberton '20 Cooper Nefsky '17 Hugh Macgillivray '18 Ragna Agerup '20	Paige Dunlevy '20 Erin Smith '19 Marion Lemay '20 Eliza Garry '17 Cooper Nefsky '17 Albert Rodiger '18
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Mackenzie Bryan '18 Martim Anderson '18 Michael Gemperline '17	Jennifer Agell '19 Rebecca Anderson '18 Beatrice Bellacosa '17
Boston University	Terriers	Hannah Polster '17 Ravi Parent '18 Robby Gearon '19	Allison Cahn '20 Hannah Davis '19 Lexi Pline '19
Brown University	Bears	Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick '17 Patrick Shanahan '19 Sam Alexander '18	Haley Carter '17 Emily Ito '19 Marina Cano '17

Conditions — 11/05/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 62% · Pressure 1021.2 hPa

Temperature

51°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.5 kn

avg · max 8.2 kn

Gusts to 19.6 kn

From W (280°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine8.1 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1021.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu