Ragna Agerup

Rating History

Team Race Rating

Rating	Rank	vs fleet rating	Record
3.27 (fleet 4.55)	unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active)	−0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts	as skipper 105–55 (66%)

Season	Regattas	Skipper W–L	Crew W–L
Spring 2020	2	21–12	—
Spring 2019	5	51–19	—
Spring 2018	4	26–17	—
Spring 2017	1	1–4	—
Fall 2016	1	6–3	—

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 13 graded regattas (160 matches) the record is 105–55 against 113.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−8.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 8 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.

Date	Regatta	Role	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2020-03-07	St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference	skipper	3.62	3.15	9–7	10.4	−0.46	0.5	87%
2020-02-29	Sharpe Team Race Trophy	skipper	3.71	2.73	12–5	14.4	−0.99	1.8	98%
2019-04-13	Women's Team Race National Invitational	skipper	3.42	3.46	17–2	16.9	+0.04	0.0	66%
2019-04-06	NEISA Team Race Championship	skipper	3.46	3.13	9–9	10.4	−0.33	0.3	82%
2019-03-16	Southern New England Team Race	skipper	3.43	3.10	12–5	12.9	−0.33	0.2	81%
2019-03-09	St. Mary's Team Race InterConference	skipper	3.36	3.59	7–2	6.7	+0.23	0.1	58%
2019-03-03	Sharpe Team Race Trophy	skipper	3.31	3.79	6–1	5.6	+0.48	0.1	55%
2018-04-28	Women's National Team Race Invitational	skipper	3.14	3.18	11–7	10.8	+0.04	0.0	57%
2018-04-07	New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy	skipper	3.06	0.06	0–4	1.5	≤−3.00	2.7	>99%
2018-03-24	Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race	skipper	3.15	2.06	7–5	9.4	−1.08	2.0	98%
2018-03-04	Harvard Women's Team Race	skipper	3.04	2.77	8–1	8.2	−0.27	0.0	82%
2017-04-08	New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy	skipper	2.78	2.23	1–4	1.4	−0.55	0.2	84%
2016-11-05	Hap Moore Team Race	skipper	2.65	3.44	6–3	4.3	+0.78	0.9	21%

Regatta results

Regatta	Role	Div	Races	Avg	Rating
Spring 2017 Team page Season
St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's	Skipper	A	13	8.5	3.38
New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy	Skipper	TR	11	18%	—
NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's	Skipper	A	12	11.7	2.55
Navy Spring Women's Women's	Skipper	A	3	13.7	2.12
Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's	Skipper	A	8	10.1	3.28
Fall 2016 Team page Season
Yale Women's Backup Women's	Skipper	A	12	10.2	3.08
Women's Weekday Invite Women's	Skipper	A	4	2.8	2.04
Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's	Skipper	A	18	9.9	3.11
Victorian Coffee Urn Women's	Skipper	A	12	8.0	3.34
Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's	Skipper	B	6	5.2	3.16
Stu Nelson Women's	Skipper	B	8	7.0	3.22
Southern Series 5	Skipper	A	8	6.6	1.62
Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's	Skipper	A	12	13.4	2.04
Hap Moore Team Race	Skipper	TR	18	50%	—
Amanda Trophy Women's	Skipper	B	4	7.8	2.07

Linked Profiles

League	Name	School	Year
ICSA	Ragna Agerup	Brown University	'20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How do skipper ratings work?A log-strength fitted to every race at once, smoothed week to week.
What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
How does a crew rating work?A crew rating is small and uncertain; a worked example on one roster.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.

All notes →