Women's Weekday Invite

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 28
2 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 32
3 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 45
4 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 49
5 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 72
6 Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 86
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 B 3 1 3 1 8 Charlotte List '18
Katherine (Katie) Rodger '20
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 A 1 3 5 2 11 Ragna Agerup '20 [1-4]
Cecilia Moreira '20 [1-3]
Eliza Garry '17 [4]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears A 4 2 4 3 13 Madelynn Widmeier '19
Sophie Kay '20
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 B 5 5 1 6 17 Alexandra Maurillo '18 [1-4]
Paige Dunlevy '20 [1-3]
Marion Lemay '20 [4]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 B 2 7 2 8 19 Rebecca Quirke '17 [1-4]
Hannah King '19 [1-3]
Victoria Slater '19 [4]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 A 6 8 6 4 24 Emilia Clementi '18
Hannah Staples '20
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 A 10 4 7 5 26 Gwynie Dunlevy '20 [1, 4]
Julia Leighton '20 [2-3]
Jessica Hunnewell '20 [1, 4]
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats A 7 6 8 7 28 Marisa Sannino '19
Hope Murray '17
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears B 8 9 9 10 36 Rebecca Edmonds '19
Anna Maria Vaccaro '19
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags A 9 10 12 12 43 Lauren Ten Hoopen '19
Maribeth Mason '19
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags B 12 12 10 9 43 Kelsey Laforest '17
Joleen Roberti '19
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats B 11 11 11 11 44 Caoilinn Boyle '20
Lily Doolin '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears6666
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 11111
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 22222
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 33333
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags4444
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats5555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears12121212
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 17777
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 28888
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 39999
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags10101010
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats11111111

Conditions — 10/05/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1027.0 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 7.1 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From ENE (60°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1027.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Coast Guard: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.04 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →