New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy

HostConnecticut College
Date04/07/2018
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	15–3
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	13–5
3	Dartmouth College	Big Green	11–7
4	Boston College	Eagles	10–8
5	Harvard University	Crimson	10–8
6	Connecticut College	Camels	10–8
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	9–9
8	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	8–10
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	3–8
10	Boston University	Terriers	2–9
11	Tufts University	Jumbos	2–9
12	Brown University	Bears	1–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 11,154 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 70 of 94 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.547 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.30 ± 0.25: an orderly event, more orderly than 76% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.20 school +0.23	Nicholas Baird / Graceann Nicolosi 3.93 Shawn Harvey / Katharina (Kb) Knapp 3.36 Malcolm Lamphere / Sonia Lingos-Utley 3.65	76%	15–3 (83%)	+1.3
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	10.96 school +0.23	Martim Anderson / Rebecca Anderson 3.53 Mackenzie Bryan / Jennifer Agell 3.57 Conner Harding / Michael Mcbrien 3.61	72%	13–5 (72%)	+0.1
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	4	10.07 school +0.19	Jack Mcgraw / Alyssa Berger 2.87 Christopher Williford / Rebecca Mcelvain 3.68 Duncan Williford / Paige Clarke 3.29	50%	11–7 (61%)	+2.0
4	Boston College Eagles	3	10.55 school +0.21	Sophia Reineke / Lily Mcgrath 3.02 7–5 Charles Sinks / Alice Bohan 3.71 7–5 Wade Waddell / Katharine Bowman 3.61 7–5 Sophia Reineke / Tara Ferraris 3.16 3–3 Charles Sinks / Emma Perry 3.51 3–3 Wade Waddell / Alice Bohan 3.61 3–3	62%	10–8 (56%)	−1.2
5	Harvard University Crimson	6	9.97	Nick Sertl / Christine Gosioco 3.68 Nick Digiovanni / Catherine Tang 3.06 Eli Burnes / Kevin Coakley 3.15	48%	10–8 (56%)	+1.3
6	Connecticut College Camels	7	9.89 school +0.10, home +0.41	Hugh Macgillivray / Gwynie Dunlevy 3.22 Walter Florio / Albert Rodiger 2.99 Carter Pemberton / Cecilia Moreira 3.14	45%	10–8 (56%)	+1.8
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	5	10.04	Ty Ingram / Sameena Shaffeeullah 3.71 7–7 Trevor Long / Greta Farrell 3.23 7–7 Cutter O'Connell / Julia Cho 3.09 7–7 Ty Ingram / Greta Farrell 3.58 2–2 Trevor Long / John Ped 3.33 2–2 Cutter O'Connell / Marcus Abate 3.19 2–2	49%	9–9 (50%)	+0.2
8	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	8	9.86 school +0.34	Matthew Kaplan / Marie Bergsund 3.48 William Hawk / Emily Gonzalez 3.10 Christian Filter / Louisa Lindgren 2.96 7–7 Matt Safford / Louisa Lindgren 2.79 1–3	45%	8–10 (44%)	−0.1
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	10	9.09 school −0.15	Mack Fox / Anna Morin 3.08 Dana Rohde / Maddie Ekin 3.31 2–6 Austin Lettengarver / Brian Nelson 3.14 3–3 Shane Riera / Brian Nelson 2.84 0–5 Shane Riera / Maddie Ekin 2.74 1–2	32%	3–8 (27%)	−0.5
10	Boston University Terriers	12	8.52 school −0.18	Robby Gearon / Lexi Pline 3.13 Michael Sabourin / Carly Berry 2.46 Sam Morrell / Erica Brown 3.05 1–6 Sam Morrell / Hannah Davis 3.18 1–2 Josh Dochoda / Hannah Davis 3.12 0–1	20%	2–9 (18%)	−0.2
11	Tufts University Jumbos	11	8.71 school +0.16	Christopher Keller / Michelle Chisdak 2.76 Cameron Holley / Ian Morgan 2.77 2–7 Jackson Mccoy / Emily Shanley-Roberts 3.00 2–6 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk / Emily Shanley-Roberts 2.94 0–2 Jack Bitney / Lara Dienemann 2.87 0–2 Jackson Mccoy / Emily Calandrella 3.15 0–1	24%	2–9 (18%)	−0.7
12	Brown University Bears	9	9.64 school +0.14	Patrick Shanahan / Julia Kim 3.55 Sam Alexander / Emily Ito 2.98 1–7 Quinn Andersen / Julia Reynolds 2.94 1–5 Ragna Agerup / Maxine De Havenon 3.06 0–4 Quinn Andersen / Emily Ito 2.96 0–2 Sam Alexander / Maxine De Havenon 2.85 0–1 Sam Alexander / Sawyer Balint 2.83 0–1	44%	1–10 (9%)	−3.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Dartmouth College	10.07	10.57	11–7	9.0	+0.50	0.7	23%
1	Yale University	11.20	11.66	15–3	13.7	+0.46	0.4	35%
6	Connecticut College	9.89	10.34	10–8	8.2	+0.46	0.6	25%
5	Harvard University	9.97	10.30	10–8	8.7	+0.33	0.3	34%
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	10.04	10.07	9–9	8.9	+0.04	0.0	57%
2	Roger Williams University	10.96	10.98	13–5	12.9	+0.02	0.0	60%
8	Bowdoin College	9.86	9.82	8–10	8.1	−0.03	0.0	62%
10	Boston University	8.52	8.36	2–9	2.2	−0.15	0.0	70%
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9.09	8.83	3–8	3.5	−0.27	0.1	76%
4	Boston College	10.55	10.24	10–8	11.2	−0.31	0.3	81%
11	Tufts University	8.71	8.31	2–9	2.7	−0.41	0.2	80%
12	Brown University	9.64	7.36	1–10	4.8	−2.28	5.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Austin Lettengarver	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.14	4.46	3–3	1.4	+1.32	1.6	13%
Nicholas Baird	Yale University	3.93	4.39	15–3	13.7	+0.46	0.4	35%
Walter Florio	Connecticut College	2.99	3.45	10–8	8.2	+0.46	0.6	25%
Nick Digiovanni	Harvard University	3.06	3.40	10–8	8.7	+0.33	0.3	34%
Eli Burnes	Harvard University	3.15	3.48	10–8	8.7	+0.33	0.3	34%
Ty Ingram	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.71	3.74	9–9	8.9	+0.04	0.0	57%
Trevor Long	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.23	3.27	9–9	8.9	+0.04	0.0	57%
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	3.53	3.55	13–5	12.9	+0.02	0.0	60%
Conner Harding	Roger Williams University	3.61	3.63	13–5	12.9	+0.02	0.0	60%
William Hawk	Bowdoin College	3.10	3.06	8–10	8.1	−0.03	0.0	62%
Wade Waddell	Boston College	3.61	3.30	10–8	11.2	−0.31	0.3	81%
Christopher Keller	Tufts University	2.76	2.35	2–9	2.7	−0.41	0.2	80%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	69%
1	2	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	53%
1	3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	82%
1	4	Roger Williams University	Brown University	79%
1	5	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	78%
1	6	Yale University	Boston College	67%
1	7	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	54%
1	8	Boston University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	35%	upset
1	9	Harvard University	Brown University	58%
1	10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	53%
1	11	Yale University	Roger Williams University	56%
1	12	Boston College	Tufts University	87%
1	13	Dartmouth College	Boston University	83%
1	14	Connecticut College	Brown University	56%
1	15	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	69%
1	16	Harvard University	Yale University	22%	upset
1	17	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	79%
1	18	Boston College	Roger Williams University	40%	upset
1	19	Brown University	Boston University	75%
1	20	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	54%
1	21	Yale University	Connecticut College	79%
1	22	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	40%	upset
1	23	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	73%
1	24	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	37%	upset
1	25	Bowdoin College	Brown University	57%
1	26	Yale University	Boston University	94%
1	27	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	80%
1	28	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	74%
1	29	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	72%
1	30	Boston College	Harvard University	65%
1	31	Yale University	Bowdoin College	79%
1	32	Tufts University	Brown University	28%	upset
1	33	Roger Williams University	Boston University	92%
1	34	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	51%
1	35	Harvard University	Connecticut College	52%
1	36	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	85%
1	37	Yale University	Tufts University	92%
1	38	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	77%
1	39	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	57%
1	40	Harvard University	Boston University	81%
1	41	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dartmouth College	34%	upset
1	42	Connecticut College	Boston College	33%	upset
1	43	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	90%
1	44	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	76%
1	45	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	44%	upset
1	46	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	41%	upset
1	47	Connecticut College	Boston University	80%
1	48	Dartmouth College	Boston College	38%	upset
1	49	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	72%
1	50	Harvard University	Tufts University	78%
1	51	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	86%
1	52	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	50%	upset
1	53	Dartmouth College	Brown University	64%
1	54	Boston College	Boston University	87%
1	55	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	47%	upset
1	56	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	11%	upset
1	57	Connecticut College	Tufts University	75%
1	58	Yale University	Dartmouth College	76%
1	59	Bowdoin College	Boston University	78%
1	60	Boston College	Brown University	68%
1	61	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	76%
1	62	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	55%
1	63	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	71%
1	64	Boston University	Tufts University	42%	upset
1	65	Yale University	Brown University	83%
1	66	Bowdoin College	Boston College	35%	upset
2	67	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	74%
2	68	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	51%
2	69	Yale University	Harvard University	77%
2	70	Bowdoin College	Boston College	35%	upset
2	71	Connecticut College	Dartmouth College	45%	upset
2	72	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	27%	upset
2	73	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	53%
2	74	Boston College	Yale University	33%	upset
2	75	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	52%
2	76	Bowdoin College	Connecticut College	50%
2	77	Yale University	Roger Williams University	56%
2	78	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	63%
2	79	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	56%
2	80	Yale University	Dartmouth College	75%
2	81	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	45%	upset
2	82	Roger Williams University	Boston College	59%
2	83	Yale University	Bowdoin College	79%
2	84	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	52%
2	85	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	71%
2	86	Boston College	Connecticut College	66%
2	87	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	76%
2	88	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	77%
2	89	Connecticut College	Harvard University	48%	upset
2	90	Boston College	Dartmouth College	62%
2	91	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	72%
2	92	Connecticut College	Yale University	21%	upset
2	93	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	55%
2	94	Harvard University	Boston College	36%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hawks	Green	Eagles	Crimson	Camels	Engineers	Bears	Bears	Terriers	Jumbos	Bears
Yale University Bulldogs	10–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	8–3	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	8–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	6–5	L	W	L	✕	W	L	L	L	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	7–4	W	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	6–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	7–4	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6–5	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–8	L	W	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	L	W
Boston University Terriers	2–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	2–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Brown University Bears	1–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Hawks	Green	Eagles	Crimson	Camels	Engineers	Bears
Yale University Bulldogs	5–2	✕	W	W	L	W	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–2	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–4	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–3	W	L	W	✕	L	W	W	L
Harvard University Crimson	3–4	L	W	L	W	✕	L	L	W
Connecticut College Camels	4–3	W	L	W	L	W	✕	W	L
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
2	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
3	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
4	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
5	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
6	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
7	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
8	Terriers	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
9	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
10	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
11	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
12	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
13	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
14	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
15	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
16	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
17	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
18	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
19	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Terriers	1-4-6
20	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
21	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
22	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
23	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
24	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
25	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
26	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
27	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
28	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
29	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
30	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
31	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
32	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
33	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
34	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
35	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
36	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
37	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
38	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
39	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
40	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
41	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
42	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
43	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
44	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
45	Polar Bears	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
46	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
47	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
48	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
49	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
50	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
51	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
52	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
53	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
54	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
55	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
56	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
57	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
59	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
60	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
61	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
62	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
63	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
64	Terriers	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
65	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
66	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
67	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Camels	2-3-6
68	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
69	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
70	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
71	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
72	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
73	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
74	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
75	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
76	Polar Bears	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
77	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
78	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
79	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
80	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
81	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
82	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
83	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
84	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
85	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
86	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
87	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
88	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
89	Camels	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
90	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
91	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
92	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
93	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
94	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Malcolm Lamphere '18 Nicholas Baird '19 Shawn Harvey '22	Sonia Lingos-Utley '22 Graceann Nicolosi '20 Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Conner Harding '19 Mackenzie Bryan '18 Martim Anderson '18	Michael Mcbrien '18 Jennifer Agell '19 Rebecca Anderson '18
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Christopher Williford '19 Duncan Williford '18 Jack Mcgraw '20	Rebecca Mcelvain '19 Paige Clarke '20 Alyssa Berger '19
Boston College	Eagles	Charles Sinks '18 Sophia Reineke '21 Wade Waddell '19	Alice Bohan '18 Emma Perry '19 Lily Mcgrath '18 Tara Ferraris '19 Katharine Bowman '20
Harvard University	Crimson	Eli Burnes '22 Nick Digiovanni '19 Nick Sertl '18	Kevin Coakley '18 Catherine Tang '19 Christine Gosioco '19
Connecticut College	Camels	Carter Pemberton '20 Hugh Macgillivray '18 Walter Florio '18	Cecilia Moreira '20 Gwynie Dunlevy '20 Albert Rodiger '18
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Cutter O'Connell '18 Trevor Long '19 Ty Ingram '18	Marcus Abate '20 Julia Cho '20 John Ped '21 Greta Farrell '18 Sameena Shaffeeullah '19
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Christian Filter '20 Matt Safford '20 Matthew Kaplan '19 William Hawk '18	Louisa Lindgren '19 Marie Bergsund '20 Emily Gonzalez '20
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Austin Lettengarver '19 Dana Rohde '18 Mack Fox '20 Shane Riera '21	Brian Nelson '21 Maddie Ekin '20 Anna Morin '19
Boston University	Terriers	Josh Dochoda '20 Michael Sabourin '20 Robby Gearon '19 Sam Morrell '21	Hannah Davis '19 Carly Berry '21 Lexi Pline '19 Erica Brown '21
Tufts University	Jumbos	Cameron Holley '19 Christopher Keller '19 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk '19 Jack Bitney '19 Jackson Mccoy '19	Ian Morgan '19 Michelle Chisdak '18 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18 Lara Dienemann '18 Emily Calandrella '20
Brown University	Bears	Patrick Shanahan '19 Quinn Andersen '18 Ragna Agerup '20 Sam Alexander '18	Julia Kim '18 Julia Reynolds '22 Emily Ito '19 Maxine De Havenon '19 Sawyer Balint '20

Conditions — 04/07/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 40% · Pressure 1010.5 hPa

Temperature

43°F

↑ 47°F ↓ 37°F

Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.8 kn

avg · max 10.0 kn

Gusts to 24.3 kn

From WNW (303°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine7.3 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1010.5 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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