U. S. Coast Guard Academy '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.37 (fleet 3.27) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 34–41 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 6 | 34–41 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (75 matches) the record is 34–41 against 29.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.7). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | skipper | 2.84 | 1.42 | 1–7 | 2.6 | −1.42 | 1.5 | 97% |
| 2018-03-31 | Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.81 | 3.54 | 5–9 | 3.1 | +0.73 | 1.0 | 17% |
| 2018-03-24 | Staake Team Race | skipper | 2.75 | 5.75 | 8–0 | 5.7 | ≥+3.00 | 3.7 | 7% |
| 2018-03-17 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 2.75 | 2.72 | 8–10 | 8.1 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 2018-03-10 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.58 | 3.15 | 8–9 | 6.4 | +0.58 | 0.7 | 24% |
| 2018-03-04 | Sharpe Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.21 | 2.54 | 4–6 | 3.3 | +0.34 | 0.2 | 43% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.2 | 3.40 |
| Staake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 80% | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Sharpe Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| New England Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 1 | 12.0 | — |
| Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 47% | — |
| Gill Coed National Championships | Skipper | A | 3 | 14.7 | 2.79 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 13 | 14.1 | 2.28 |
| St. Mary's Fall InterConference | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.5 | 3.35 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.4 | 3.49 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 8.0 | 3.79 |
| The 77th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.6 | 3.58 |
| 75th Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 12.2 | 3.19 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Shane Riera |  Westminster Christian School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
