Staake Team Race

HostConnecticut College
Date03/24/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Connecticut College	Camels	19–1
2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	16–4
3	University of Vermont	Catamounts	10–10
4	University of Rhode Island	Rams	10–10
5	Northeastern University	Huskies	5–15
6	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	0–20

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,346 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 52 of 60 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.326 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.42 ± 0.24: an orderly event, more orderly than 86% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Connecticut College Camels	1	9.86 home +0.39	Hugh Macgillivray / Elizabeth Davis 3.30 Walter Florio / Albert Rodiger 2.99 Carter Pemberton / Cecilia Moreira 3.10	85%	19–1 (95%)	+1.9
2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2	9.02 school −0.28	Mack Fox / Anna Morin 3.12 Austin Lettengarver / Maddie Ekin 2.96 Dana Rohde / Brian Nelson 3.47 8–4 Shane Riera / Brian Nelson 2.75 8–0	71%	16–4 (80%)	+1.9
3	University of Vermont Catamounts	5	7.42 school −0.05	Jan Kite-Powell / Nellie Stidham 2.73 Colin Richards / Amanda Engeman 2.60 Vincent Yannelli / Isabella Arnaboldi 2.10 10–6 Vincent Yannelli / Lilla Salvesen 2.08 0–4	38%	10–10 (50%)	+2.4
4	University of Rhode Island Rams	3	8.17 school −0.27	Dakota Northrup / Kathryn Nota 3.05 Luke Ingalls / Caitlin Abel 2.45 Brendan Read / Lauren Richards 2.84	52%	10–10 (50%)	−0.3
5	Northeastern University Huskies	4	7.90 school +0.18	Jackson Hamilton / Jacqueline Berlin 2.94 Kurran Singh / John Hughes 2.40 Kyle Riggs / Jon Ewing 2.33 1–11 Kyle Riggs / Marika Van Dusen 2.33 4–4	49%	5–15 (25%)	−4.7
6	Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	6	5.42 school −0.19	Braden Foster / Maya Stephani 1.25 Alexander Bowen / Megan Laurie 1.98 Frank Reeg / Sydney Clays 2.19	6%	0–20 (0%)	−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Connecticut College	9.86	11.15	19–1	17.1	+1.28	1.5	17%
3	University of Vermont	7.42	8.11	10–10	7.6	+0.69	1.2	15%
2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9.02	9.64	16–4	14.1	+0.62	0.8	23%
4	University of Rhode Island	8.17	8.08	10–10	10.3	−0.09	0.0	67%
5	Northeastern University	7.90	6.38	5–15	9.7	−1.53	4.9	>99%
6	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	5.42	2.42	0–20	1.2	≤−3.00	1.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Walter Florio	Connecticut College	2.99	4.27	19–1	17.1	+1.28	1.5	17%
Vincent Yannelli	University of Vermont	2.10	2.78	10–10	7.6	+0.69	1.2	15%
Austin Lettengarver	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.96	3.58	16–4	14.1	+0.62	0.8	23%
Kurran Singh	Northeastern University	2.40	0.87	5–15	9.7	−1.53	4.9	>99%
Kyle Riggs	Northeastern University	2.33	0.80	5–15	9.7	−1.53	4.9	>99%
Braden Foster	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	1.25	-1.75	0–20	1.2	≤−3.00	1.6	>99%
Alexander Bowen	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	1.98	-1.02	0–20	1.2	≤−3.00	1.6	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	99%
1	2	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	56%
1	3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	77%
1	4	Connecticut College	Northeastern University	88%
1	5	University of Vermont	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	89%
1	6	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	23%	upset
1	7	University of Vermont	Northeastern University	38%	upset
1	8	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	85%
1	9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	98%
1	10	University of Vermont	University of Rhode Island	33%	upset
1	11	Northeastern University	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	93%
1	12	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	37%	upset
1	13	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	94%
1	14	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	92%
1	15	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Northeastern University	67%
2	16	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	99%
2	17	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	56%
2	18	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	76%
2	19	Connecticut College	Northeastern University	88%
2	20	University of Vermont	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	88%
2	21	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	76%
2	22	Northeastern University	University of Vermont	62%
2	23	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	85%
2	24	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	98%
2	25	University of Rhode Island	University of Vermont	68%
2	26	Northeastern University	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	92%
2	27	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	63%
2	28	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	94%
2	29	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	92%
2	30	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Northeastern University	67%
3	31	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	99%
3	32	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	57%
3	33	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	76%
3	34	Connecticut College	Northeastern University	88%
3	35	University of Vermont	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	88%
3	36	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	76%
3	37	University of Vermont	Northeastern University	38%	upset
3	38	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	84%
3	39	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	98%
3	40	University of Vermont	University of Rhode Island	32%	upset
3	41	Northeastern University	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	92%
3	42	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	64%
3	43	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	94%
3	44	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	92%
3	45	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Northeastern University	66%
4	46	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	99%
4	47	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	57%
4	48	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	76%
4	49	Connecticut College	Northeastern University	87%
4	50	University of Vermont	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	87%
4	51	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	75%
4	52	University of Vermont	Northeastern University	38%	upset
4	53	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	84%
4	54	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	98%
4	55	University of Vermont	University of Rhode Island	32%	upset
4	56	Northeastern University	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	92%
4	57	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	64%
4	58	University of Rhode Island	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	94%
4	59	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	92%
4	60	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Northeastern University	66%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Camels	Bears	Catamounts	Rams	Huskies	Buccaneers
Connecticut College Camels	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–2	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Camels	Bears	Catamounts	Rams	Huskies	Buccaneers
Connecticut College Camels	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–4	L	L	✕	L	L	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	2–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Camels	Bears	Catamounts	Rams	Huskies	Buccaneers
Connecticut College Camels	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Camels	Bears	Catamounts	Rams	Huskies	Buccaneers
Connecticut College Camels	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Buccaneers	3-4-6
2	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
3	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
4	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
5	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Buccaneers	1-5-6
6	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
7	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
8	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
9	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Buccaneers	4-5-6
10	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
11	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Buccaneers	3-4-6
12	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
13	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Buccaneers	3-5-6
14	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
15	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Huskies	1-4-6
16	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Buccaneers	3-4-6
17	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
18	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
19	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
20	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Buccaneers	3-4-6
21	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
22	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
23	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
24	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Buccaneers	3-5-6
25	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Catamounts	2-5-6
26	Huskies	1-2-3	def.	Buccaneers	4-5-6
27	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
28	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Buccaneers	3-5-6
29	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
30	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
31	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Buccaneers	3-4-6
32	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
33	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
34	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
35	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Buccaneers	1-5-6
36	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
37	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
38	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
39	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Buccaneers	4-5-6
40	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
41	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Buccaneers	3-4-6
42	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
43	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Buccaneers	3-4-6
44	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
45	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
46	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Buccaneers	4-5-6
47	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
48	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
49	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
50	Catamounts	1-2-4	def.	Buccaneers	3-5-6
51	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
52	Catamounts	1-4-5	def.	Huskies	2-3-6
53	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
54	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Buccaneers	4-5-6
55	Catamounts	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
56	Huskies	1-3-5	def.	Buccaneers	2-4-6
57	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
58	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Buccaneers	3-4-5
59	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
60	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Connecticut College	Camels	Carter Pemberton '20 Hugh Macgillivray '18 Walter Florio '18	Cecilia Moreira '20 Elizabeth Davis '21 Albert Rodiger '18
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Austin Lettengarver '19 Dana Rohde '18 Mack Fox '20 Shane Riera '21	Maddie Ekin '20 Brian Nelson '21 Anna Morin '19
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Colin Richards '20 Jan Kite-Powell '19 Vincent Yannelli '19	Amanda Engeman '20 Nellie Stidham '21 Lilla Salvesen '18 Isabella Arnaboldi '21
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Brendan Read '19 Dakota Northrup '19 Luke Ingalls '21	Lauren Richards '19 Kathryn Nota '19 Caitlin Abel '21
Northeastern University	Huskies	Jackson Hamilton '19 Kurran Singh '19 Kyle Riggs '21	Jacqueline Berlin '19 John Hughes '18 Jon Ewing '21 Marika Van Dusen '21
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	Alexander Bowen '20 Braden Foster '19 Frank Reeg '19	Megan Laurie '20 Maya Stephani '20 Sydney Clays '21

Conditions — 03/24/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 41% · Pressure 1016.9 hPa

Temperature

44°F

↑ 47°F ↓ 34°F

Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.2 kn

avg · max 9.8 kn

Gusts to 24.3 kn

From NNW (342°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover85% Sunshine7.6 hrs Humidity41% Pressure1016.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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