Northeastern University '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.70 (fleet 2.34) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 21–49 (30%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 19–25 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 0–12 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 0–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (70 matches) the record is 21–49 against 19.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-24 | Staake Team Race | skipper | 2.40 | 0.87 | 5–15 | 9.7 | −1.53 | 4.9 | >99% |
| 2018-03-17 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.36 | 3.34 | 4–3 | 2.5 | +0.98 | 1.0 | 21% |
| 2018-03-10 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.17 | 3.33 | 10–7 | 5.7 | +1.16 | 3.7 | 2% |
| 2016-03-26 | Staake Trophy NE Qualifier | skipper | 2.05 | -0.95 | 0–12 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| 2015-04-11 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 1.94 | 2.78 | 2–6 | 1.2 | +0.84 | 0.5 | 36% |
| 2014-10-19 | Lane Trophy | skipper | 1.59 | -1.41 | 0–6 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| The Hatch Brown Memorial Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 16.0 | 0.47 |
| Harry H. Anderson Jr. Regatta | Skipper | A | 16 | 14.8 | 1.24 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| Staake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 25% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.1 | 2.84 |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 4 | 16.8 | 0.78 |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| The 82nd Annual Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 10 | 8.2 | 2.94 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.9 | 2.21 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 3.0 | 3.72 |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.1 | 3.02 |
| Central 3 | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.5 | 2.73 |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 11 | 9.1 | 2.60 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| FJ Invitational | Skipper | B | 5 | 1.8 | 3.92 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.9 | 2.79 |
| Staake Trophy NE Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.2 | 2.01 |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.5 | 3.33 |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 14.3 | 1.48 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.1 | 2.05 |
| Mt. Hope Bay/Southern 1 | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.4 | 2.35 |
| Midweek Fly 10/22 | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 3.01 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.1 | 1.95 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.9 | 2.53 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.8 | 2.07 |
| Dark of Night | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.0 | 0.68 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Priddy Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.2 | 1.96 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.5 | 0.84 |
| Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 6 | 0% | — |
| Commonwealth Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.1 | 2.30 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.7 | 1.17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
