Mystic Lake Team Race

HostTufts
Date04/11/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatLark
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Tufts University	Jumbos	10–1
2	Boston College	Eagles	9–2
3	University of Rhode Island	Rams	5–6
4	Brown University	Bears	5–6
5	Harvard University	Crimson	3–5
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	3–5
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	3–5
8	Northeastern University	Huskies	2–6
9	Boston University	Terriers	2–6
10	Yale University	Bulldogs	0–0

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,462 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 42 matches (60%) with a log-loss of 0.695 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.98 ± 0.30: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 2% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Tufts University Jumbos	2	9.56 school +0.09, home +0.25	John Rolander / Natalie Danziger 3.15 Scott Barbano / Isabelle Sennett 2.98 9–1 James Moody / Caroline Atwood 2.91 9–1 Scott Barbano / Caroline Atwood 3.25 1–0 James Moody / Caroline Ambros 2.91 1–0	75%	10–1 (91%)	+1.7
2	Boston College Eagles	4	9.02 school +0.07	Ryan Schmitz / Lily Mcgrath 2.98 Henry Dumke / Katherine Downey 3.31 Marcos Darcy / Kyla Maclennan 2.57	63%	9–2 (82%)	+2.0
3	University of Rhode Island Rams	1	9.59 school +0.27	Matthew Coughlin / Camden Tougas 3.08 Patrick Penwell / Nellie Hamilton 2.87 Caleb Armstrong / Matthew Sola 3.35 2–6 Samuel Cushing / Jack Hurley 2.91 3–0	77%	5–6 (45%)	−3.5
4	Brown University Bears	5	8.30 school +0.31	Timothy Harding / Haley Carter 2.70 Kelly Mcglynn / Courtney Bergh 2.76 Sam Alexander / Eric Xiao 2.38 3–6 Sam Alexander / Olivia Lord 2.58 2–0	49%	5–6 (45%)	−0.4
5	Harvard University Crimson	6	6.67 school −0.34	Nick Sertl / Nomin-Erdene Jagdagdorj 3.14 Dylan Farrell / Ariana Gross 2.14 3–3 Adam Brodheim / Kirstin Anderson 3–3 Dylan Farrell / Kirstin Anderson 2.34 0–2 Adam Brodheim / Ariana Gross 0–2	32%	3–5 (38%)	+0.5
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	9.10 school +0.10	Martim Anderson / Beatrice Bellacosa 3.14 Dirk Johnson / Megan Roach 3.12 Michael Gemperline / Ryan Topal 2.68	72%	3–5 (38%)	−2.8
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	9	5.41 school −0.48	Bradley Brown / Joshua Moan 2.73 Matthew Orgill / Daniel Winter 1.43 Alexander Paggi / Sulli Edwards	15%	3–5 (38%)	+1.8
8	Northeastern University Huskies	8	5.49	Peter Christensen / Katherine Alfond 1.84 Kurran Singh / Evan Gregory 1.94 Stephen Fletcher / Zach Shapiro 1.60	16%	2–6 (25%)	+0.8
9	Boston University Terriers	7	6.28 school −0.08	Ravi Parent / Andrew Stoycos 2.79 2–5 Solomon Tarlin / Nicole Lukas 1.80 2–5 Samuel Campbell / Caroline Salas 2–5 Solomon Tarlin / Jonathan Dicesare 1.83 0–1 Joseph Benoit / Stefanie Anderson 1.91 0–1 Ravi Parent / Caroline Salas 3.09 0–1	27%	2–6 (25%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	5.41	7.23	3–5	1.2	+1.82	2.6	7%
1	Tufts University	9.56	10.93	10–1	8.3	+1.36	1.5	17%
2	Boston College	9.02	10.24	9–2	7.0	+1.22	1.7	13%
8	Northeastern University	5.49	6.33	2–6	1.2	+0.84	0.5	36%
5	Harvard University	6.67	7.10	3–5	2.5	+0.44	0.1	51%
9	Boston University	6.28	6.13	2–6	2.1	−0.15	0.0	75%
4	Brown University	8.30	8.07	5–6	5.4	−0.24	0.1	75%
3	University of Rhode Island	9.59	7.75	5–6	8.5	−1.84	4.7	>99%
6	Roger Williams University	9.10	6.60	3–5	5.8	−2.49	5.0	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Samuel Cushing	University of Rhode Island	2.91	5.91	3–0	2.9	≥+3.00	0.2	88%
Bradley Brown	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.73	4.55	3–5	1.2	+1.82	2.6	7%
Matthew Orgill	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	1.43	3.24	3–5	1.2	+1.82	2.6	7%
Alexander Paggi	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	1.54	3.36	3–5	1.2	+1.82	2.6	7%
Scott Barbano	Tufts University	2.98	4.35	10–1	8.3	+1.36	1.5	17%
John Rolander	Tufts University	3.15	4.51	10–1	8.3	+1.36	1.5	17%
James Moody	Tufts University	2.91	4.27	10–1	8.3	+1.36	1.5	17%
Ryan Schmitz	Boston College	2.98	4.21	9–2	7.0	+1.22	1.7	13%
Henry Dumke	Boston College	3.31	4.53	9–2	7.0	+1.22	1.7	13%
Marcos Darcy	Boston College	2.57	3.79	9–2	7.0	+1.22	1.7	13%
Peter Christensen	Northeastern University	1.84	2.68	2–6	1.2	+0.84	0.5	36%
Kurran Singh	Northeastern University	1.94	2.78	2–6	1.2	+0.84	0.5	36%
Stephen Fletcher	Northeastern University	1.60	2.44	2–6	1.2	+0.84	0.5	36%
Adam Brodheim	Harvard University	1.43	1.87	3–5	2.5	+0.44	0.1	51%
Samuel Campbell	Boston University	1.35	1.29	2–5	2.0	−0.05	0.0	72%
Ravi Parent	Boston University	2.79	2.64	2–6	2.1	−0.15	0.0	75%
Solomon Tarlin	Boston University	1.80	1.65	2–6	2.1	−0.15	0.0	75%
Timothy Harding	Brown University	2.70	2.46	5–6	5.4	−0.24	0.1	75%
Kelly Mcglynn	Brown University	2.76	2.53	5–6	5.4	−0.24	0.1	75%
Matthew Coughlin	University of Rhode Island	3.08	1.23	5–6	8.5	−1.84	4.7	>99%
Patrick Penwell	University of Rhode Island	2.87	1.03	5–6	8.5	−1.84	4.7	>99%
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	3.14	0.65	3–5	5.8	−2.49	5.0	>99%
Michael Gemperline	Roger Williams University	2.68	0.19	3–5	5.8	−2.49	5.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Harvard University	Northeastern University	73%
1	2	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	98%
1	3	Tufts University	Boston University	97%
1	4	University of Rhode Island	Brown University	80%
1	5	Boston College	Harvard University	92%
1	6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Northeastern University	47%	upset
1	7	Boston University	Roger Williams University	5%	upset
1	8	Tufts University	Brown University	78%
1	9	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	34%	upset
1	10	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	78%
1	11	Northeastern University	Roger Williams University	3%	upset
1	12	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston University	32%	upset
1	13	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	64%
1	14	Brown University	Boston University	88%
1	15	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	46%	upset
1	16	Brown University	Boston College	32%	upset
1	17	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	8%	upset
1	18	Northeastern University	Boston University	30%	upset
1	19	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	98%
1	20	Roger Williams University	Brown University	70%
1	21	University of Rhode Island	Boston University	96%
1	22	Boston College	Tufts University	36%	upset
1	23	Boston University	Harvard University	43%	upset
1	24	Tufts University	Northeastern University	98%
1	25	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	6%	upset
1	26	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	36%	upset
1	27	Tufts University	Harvard University	94%
1	28	Brown University	Harvard University	84%
1	29	Boston College	Boston University	91%
1	30	University of Rhode Island	Harvard University	92%
1	31	Brown University	Northeastern University	95%
1	32	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	97%
1	33	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	98%
1	34	Boston College	Roger Williams University	47%	upset
1	35	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	98%
1	36	Boston College	Northeastern University	97%
3	37	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	46%	upset
3	38	Boston College	Brown University	67%
3	39	Tufts University	Brown University	78%
3	40	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	33%	upset
3	41	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	19%	upset
3	42	Tufts University	Boston College	64%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Eagles	Rams	Bears	Crimson	Hawks	Bears	Huskies	Terriers
Tufts University Jumbos	7–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	7–1	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	5–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	4–4	L	W	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	3–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–5	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	L	L
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	2–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Boston University Terriers	2–6	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Jumbos	Eagles	Rams	Bears
Tufts University Jumbos	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	2–1	L	✕	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	0–3	L	L	✕	L
Brown University Bears	1–2	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6 DNF
2	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
3	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
4	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
5	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
6	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
7	Terriers	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
8	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
9	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
10	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
11	Huskies	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6 DNF
12	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
13	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
14	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
15	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
16	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
17	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
18	Huskies	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6 DNF
19	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
20	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
21	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
22	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
23	Terriers	1-4-5	def.	Crimson	2-3-6
24	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
25	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
26	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
27	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
28	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
29	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
30	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
31	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
32	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
33	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
34	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
35	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
36	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
37	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
38	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
39	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
40	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
41	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
42	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Tufts University	Jumbos	James Moody '16 John Rolander '17 Scott Barbano '17	Caroline Atwood '16 Caroline Ambros '17 Natalie Danziger '17 Isabelle Sennett '17
Boston College	Eagles	Henry Dumke '17 Marcos Darcy '16 Ryan Schmitz '15	Katherine Downey '16 Kyla Maclennan '18 Lily Mcgrath '18
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Caleb Armstrong '16 Matthew Coughlin '16 Patrick Penwell '16 Samuel Cushing '15	Matthew Sola '15 Camden Tougas '17 Nellie Hamilton '16 Jack Hurley '18
Brown University	Bears	Kelly Mcglynn '15 Sam Alexander '18 Timothy Harding '15	Courtney Bergh '16 Olivia Lord '17 Eric Xiao '17 Haley Carter '17
Harvard University	Crimson	Adam Brodheim '16 Dylan Farrell '18 Nick Sertl '18	Kirstin Anderson '18 Ariana Gross '18 Nomin-Erdene Jagdagdorj '17
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Dirk Johnson '18 Martim Anderson '18 Michael Gemperline '17	Megan Roach '18 Beatrice Bellacosa '17 Ryan Topal '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Alexander Paggi '18 Bradley Brown '15 Matthew Orgill '16	Sulli Edwards '17 Joshua Moan '15 Daniel Winter '16
Northeastern University	Huskies	Kurran Singh '19 Peter Christensen '18 Stephen Fletcher '17	Evan Gregory '16 Katherine Alfond '19 Zach Shapiro '15
Boston University	Terriers	Joseph Benoit '16 Ravi Parent '18 Samuel Campbell '17 Solomon Tarlin '17	Stefanie Anderson '18 Andrew Stoycos '18 Caroline Salas '18 Nicole Lukas '18 Jonathan Dicesare '18

Conditions — 04/11/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 47% · Pressure 1010.4 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.2 kn

avg · max 15.4 kn

Gusts to 29.9 kn

From WNW (282°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1010.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu