Boston University '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.20 (fleet 1.66) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–21 (19%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 3–16 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 2–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 5–21 against 6.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-12 | Arctic Circle Team Race | skipper | 1.47 | 0.88 | 3–16 | 4.1 | −0.59 | 0.5 | 88% |
| 2015-04-11 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 1.35 | 1.29 | 2–5 | 2.0 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Lark Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.2 | 0.84 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.6 | 1.62 |
| O'Toole | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.7 | 1.90 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 10.8 | 1.40 |
| NEISA Sportboat Invitational #1 Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 4.1 | — |
| Arctic Circle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 16% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.0 | 2.44 |
| Professor No Ringer | Crew | A | 4 | 8.0 | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.4 | 1.10 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.7 | 1.52 |
| Dark of Night | Skipper | A | 1 | 9.0 | -0.40 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.6 | 3.02 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Tyrell Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.5 | 2.68 |
| Southern 7 on Salt Pond | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.5 | 1.85 |
| NEISA Sportboat Invite #1 Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 3.5 | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.6 | 1.48 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor No Ringer | Crew | B | 5 | 3.0 | — |
| Firefly/ FJ Invitational Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.1 | 0.94 |
| Commonwealth Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.5 | 3.60 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.2 | 0.79 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 10.3 | 1.24 |
| Central Series 3 | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.8 | 1.20 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Noringer | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.4 | 0.33 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.1 | -0.24 |
| Harvard Invitational 2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.3 | 0.28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
