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Professor Noringer

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8 20 28
2 Brown University Brown University Bears 16 13 29
3 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 24 10 34
4 Bantam Bantam Bantam 22 20 42
5 Boston University Boston University Terriers 27 21 48
6 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 24 47 71
7 British U British U British U 46 30 76
8 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 48 29 77
9 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 32 46 78
10 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 47 40 87
11 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 37 70 107
12 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 59 59 118
13 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 69 49 118
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 1 2 3 1 8 Pierre Dupont '16
Emily Peck '16
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 10 1 1 2 16 Macklin Fluehr '17
Haley Carter '17
Bantam Bantam Bantam 5 7 3 2 5 22
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 2 6 8 4 24 Moussa Diolombi '15
Evan Gregory '16
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 6 3 5 7 3 24 Juliette Mann '17
Sam Chin '17
Boston University Boston University Terriers 7 4 4 6 6 27 Samuel Campbell '17
Adrian Law '17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3 5 8 9 7 32 Jamila Smith-Dell '16
Alissa Borshchenko '16
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 8 8 7 4 10 37 Sarah Hyman '15
Beth Cohen '14
British U British U British U 11 6 11 10 8 46
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 9 9 9 11 9 47 Emily Peabody '16
Elizabeth Resnick '15
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 10 11 10 5 12 48 James Paolino '15
Jessica Horne '17
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 12 12 12 12 11 59 Maia Nelles-Sager '17
Julian Dann '17
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies DNF DNS 13 DNS DNS 69 Katie Gailiunas '17
Rebecca Crowley '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 1 5 2 1 10 Claire Lockard '18
Becker Awqatty '14
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 3 1 3 4 13 Emma Davis '17
Kelly Mcglynn '15
Bantam Bantam Bantam 4 6 2 6 2 20
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos RDG 8 4 1 3 20 Grace Olsen '15
Isabelle Sennett '17
Boston University Boston University Terriers 3 5 3 4 6 21 Israel Alarcon '17
Nicholas Arabia '16
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 7 4 6 7 5 29 Robert Christie '16
Leslie Beedell '16
British U British U British U 8 2 7 5 8 30
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 6 9 8 10 7 40 Zachary Cronin '16
Stefanie Casella '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 10 7 12 8 9 46 Gordon Moseley Andrews '17
Wei Low '17
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 5 11 11 9 11 47 Christopher Mark '14
Linlin Chen '17
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 9 10 9 11 10 49 Sabina Chlus '14
Catherine Stavola '14
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 11 12 10 DNS 12 59 Kevin Winnie '16
Kellyn Maves '16
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 70 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (56 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers33668
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges11336
British UBritish U British U44779
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears22447
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies111113131
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds668810
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers779911
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats121214142
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies88101012
BantamBantam Bantam99111113
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1010121214
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue1313113
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals1414224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers44779
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges22447
British UBritish U British U668810
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears33668
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies121214142
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds779911
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers88101012
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats1313113
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies99111113
BantamBantam Bantam1010121214
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos111113131
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue1414224
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals11336

Conditions — 11/09/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1021.2 hPa

Temperature

41°F
↑ 45°F   ↓ 33°F
Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.8 kn
avg  ·  max 10.8 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From WNW (285°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover57% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1021.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Boston University: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.38 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston University by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (56 labelled days at Boston University).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →