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Firefly/ FJ Invitational Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 29 28 57
2 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 49 27 76
3 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 36 43 79
4 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Blue 42 49 91
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 70 57 127
6 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 95 45 140
7 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 67 87 154
8 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 64 95 159
9 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 58 105 163
10 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 78 102 180
11 Boston University Boston University Terriers 111 87 198
12 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 111 102 213
13 Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 131 113 244
14 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 139 113 252
15 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 150 148 298
16 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 144 165 309
17 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 168 154 322
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 2 2 2 4 5 1 1 6 4 29 Cutter O'Connell '18
Greta Farrell '18
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 5 1 5 1 5 4 3 4 1 7 36 Scott Booth '16
Michael Mcbrien '18
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Blue 1 4 1 9 6 1 4 6 4 6 42 Jonathan Pope '17
Nicole Sikowitz '15
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 4 3 6 4 1 7 6 15 2 1 49 Dylan Farrell '18
Rebecca Frankel '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 6 5 3 3 7 11 7 8 3 5 58 William Reid '16
Kayla Ngan '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 10 9 13 12 2 6 2 2 5 3 64 Kyle Joba-Woodruff '17
Sophie Goemans '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 7 10 7 5 9 2 5 3 11 8 67 Taylor Nathanson '18
Joshua Pfosi '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 14 8 4 6 8 3 13 5 7 2 70 Sam Gates '17
Katherine Xu '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 3 6 10 8 3 9 11 9 8 11 78 Maryclaire Kiernan '17
Caitlin Durand '15
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 8 12 8 7 10 10 9 12 10 9 95 Peter Christensen '18
Lindsay Martinez '18
Boston University Boston University Terriers 9 11 15 11 12 8 8 10 14 13 111 Samuel Campbell '17
Danielle Stonely '17
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 13 7 DNF 10 11 12 10 7 9 14 111 Ben Brown '18
Alden Cowap '17
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 12 13 9 13 14 16 16 16 12 10 131 No Show
No Show
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 11 15 11 14 13 14 14 11 DNF DNF 139 Paloma Soriano '18
Sarah Ertle '16
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 16 14 12 DNF DNF 13 15 13 13 12 144 Brendan Sleight '17
Elizabeth Resnick '15
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 15 16 14 DNF 16 15 12 14 15 15 150 Kimberly Jackman '16
Elizabeth Rawlinson '15
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons DNF 17 DNF 15 15 17 17 17 DNF 16 168 Sarah Bouchie '16
Nicolas Bulgarides '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2 4 1 1 4 3 2 4 3 BKD 27 Richard Bergsund '15
Kirstin Anderson '18
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 10 3 3 4 2 1 1 1 2 1 28 Zachary Hall '18
Scarlett Koller '16
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 6 4 2 9 2 5 5 4 3 43 Janel Decurtis '18
Jaye Fahey '15
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 9 6 5 3 8 3 3 1 2 45 Heidi Hood '16
Claire Lockard '18
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Blue 1 2 2 8 11 4 BKD 2 5 9 49 Riley Eger '17
Shanna Savignano '15
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 6 1 8 3 1 13 4 8 7 6 57 Tyler Paige '18
Pilar Bancalari '18
Boston University Boston University Terriers 4 7 10 6 12 6 12 7 13 10 87 Anna Booras '16
Nicole Lukas '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 9 5 5 11 8 14 7 11 9 8 87 Ballard Blair '18 [1-10]
Julien Guiot '18 [1-2]
Julia Marshall '18 [3-10]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 11 12 7 9 5 11 8 10 10 12 95 Richard Oates '18
Pavlina Karafillis '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 8 13 12 7 14 10 11 14 6 7 102 Grace Olsen '15
Rachel Hanford '18
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 13 8 14 DNF 13 5 9 6 11 5 102 Alexander Christopher '17 [1-10]
Rebecca Freeman '18 [1-4, 7-10]
Dylan Quenneville '18 [5-6]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 7 11 DNF 12 6 9 6 13 12 11 105 Brian Alvarez '15
Yu-Na Lee '18
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College Saints 12 10 9 10 10 7 10 9 DNF DNF 113 No Show
No Show
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue DNF 15 11 13 7 12 13 12 8 4 113 Juliette Mann '17
Anna Kennedy '17
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 14 14 13 16 16 15 14 16 16 14 148 Martin Hooker '18
Charles Zizza '17
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 16 17 DNF 14 15 16 15 15 15 13 154 Mikaela Donovan '15
Rebecca Hyatt '15
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 15 16 DNF 15 17 17 DNF 17 14 DNF 165 Matthew Turner '18
Lia Windt '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons1122334455
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers2233445566
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies1515161617171122
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints3344556677
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson4455667788
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers8899101011111212
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers667788991010
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers77889910101111
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers5566778899
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats16161717112233
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies991010111112121313
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Blue11111212131314141515
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks10101111121213131414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya13131414151516161717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 112121313141415151616
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2141415151616171711
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue171711223344

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons1122334455
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers2233445566
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies1515161617171122
Emmanuel CollegeEmmanuel College Saints3344556677
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson4455667788
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers8899101011111212
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers667788991010
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers77889910101111
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers5566778899
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats16161717112233
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies991010111112121313
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Blue11111212131314141515
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks10101111121213131414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya13131414151516161717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 112121313141415151616
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2141415151616171711
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue171711223344
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bentley University Bentley University Sarah Bouchie '16 Nicolas Bulgarides '17
Falcons Mikaela Donovan '15 Rebecca Hyatt '15
Boston University Boston University Samuel Campbell '17 Danielle Stonely '17
Terriers Anna Booras '16 Nicole Lukas '18
Emmanuel College Emmanuel College No Show No Show
Saints No Show No Show
Harvard University Harvard University Dylan Farrell '18 Rebecca Frankel '15
Crimson Richard Bergsund '15 Kirstin Anderson '18
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Kyle Joba-Woodruff '17 Sophie Goemans '17
Angry Beavers Richard Oates '18 Pavlina Karafillis '17
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology William Reid '16 Kayla Ngan '15
Beavers Brian Alvarez '15 Yu-Na Lee '18
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cutter O'Connell '18 Greta Farrell '18
Engineers Zachary Hall '18 Scarlett Koller '16
Middlebury College Middlebury College Ben Brown '18 Alden Cowap '17
Panthers Alexander Christopher '17 [1-10] Rebecca Freeman '18 [1-4, 7-10]
Dylan Quenneville '18 [5-6]
Northeastern University Northeastern University Peter Christensen '18 Lindsay Martinez '18
Huskies Heidi Hood '16 Claire Lockard '18
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Jonathan Pope '17 Nicole Sikowitz '15
Blue Riley Eger '17 Shanna Savignano '15
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Scott Booth '16 Michael Mcbrien '18
Hawks Janel Decurtis '18 Jaye Fahey '15
Tufts University Tufts University Taylor Nathanson '18 Joshua Pfosi '16
Jumbalaya Ballard Blair '18 [1-10] Julien Guiot '18 [1-2]
Julia Marshall '18 [3-10]
Tufts University Tufts University Sam Gates '17 Katherine Xu '18
Jumbos 1 Tyler Paige '18 Pilar Bancalari '18
Tufts University Tufts University Maryclaire Kiernan '17 Caitlin Durand '15
Jumbos 2 Grace Olsen '15 Rachel Hanford '18
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Kimberly Jackman '16 Elizabeth Rawlinson '15
Huskies Martin Hooker '18 Charles Zizza '17
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Brendan Sleight '17 Elizabeth Resnick '15
Wildcats Matthew Turner '18 Lia Windt '16
Wellesley College Wellesley College Paloma Soriano '18 Sarah Ertle '16
Blue Juliette Mann '17 Anna Kennedy '17

Conditions — 10/18/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1000.5 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 24.1 kn
From SW (214°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1000.5 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 13 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.13 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →